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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

BYOB Holiday Weekend

byob4thofjuly

The holiday weekend is upon us… kind of, as people slide into the 4th of July Saturday with a variety of vacation plans and work avoidance schemes.

The first Magic Mike opened to $39 million. However disappointing, the Terminator franchise continued to open at over $40 million the last two times in spite of John Connor’s #2 and #3 and I suspect John Conner #4 will do likewise. The question is, how much is enough for this franchise? That involves international box office, where $250 million seems to be the floor. And we still have Jurassic World and Inside Out, which have distinctly wider audience bases, sure to do another $50 million+ combined, even with Saturday fireworks.

The best July 4 weekend based on the Top 12 grossers was 2013’s Despicable Me 2/Lone Ranger-topped holiday (7/5 – 7/7). $112 million from those Top Two films. I don’t think Terminator Genisys and Magic Mike XXL will quite get there, especially with the Wednesday openings and the R- and hard-PG-13 ratings. However, the next two on that 2013 weekend (The Heat/Monsters University) did $45m combined and I think IO/JW will beat that number and but the Top Four for this weekend over the Top Four from that weekend.

After the Top Four, 2013 offered four┬ámore films with at least $10 million for the weekend. And that is where this weekend should fall short. Ted 2 is the only film that really has a shot at the 8-figure mark outside of the Top Four this weekend. And it could miss the mark. (Max could be very sticky… but a drop under 25% seems unlikely… especially with a patriotic Saturday holiday.)

The next biggest July 4 weekend was 2011 with about $30 million less than 2013. This weekend has a shot at that record, though, again, the Saturday holiday works against the three-day. Box office analysis of July 4 weekend offers one of the roughest projections, because of the various days of the week the holiday falls on and the variety of national holiday days (or lack thereof). It’s a bit more like late December than most summer analysis, though without as much weekday muscle.

Anyway… enjoy it all. I’m going to try to do so myself, with my family and a lot of pool time.

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12 Responses to “BYOB Holiday Weekend”

  1. PcChongor says:

    Paul Thomas Anderson signing on to rewrite and direct a big budget “Pinocchio” adaptation might just be the final sign of the cinematic apocalypse.

    At least we had a good hundred or so year run before it all came crashing down in a corporate bukake of needless franchises and reimaginings.

  2. movieman says:

    Since H’wood has now fucked up “Terminator” three times in a dozen years, maybe it’s time to call for a moratorium on any future reboots/sequels/whatever the fuck they’re calling ’em this year.
    Unless Jim Cameron decides to jump back into the fray, that is.
    (Like THAT would ever happen, lol.)

  3. cadavra says:

    Well, he’s making AVATAR 2, 3 and 4, so it’s not like he’s sequel-averse. After that: TITANIC 2–THE LAWSUITS.

  4. Bulldog68 says:

    And to think Cameron gave his stamp of approval on Genysis. He should’ve known better.

    How about another True Lies, Truer Lies? This time with both Arnie and The Rock. Bring back JL Curtis and my vote would be for McAdams or Zoe Saldana as The Rock’s wife.

    An August or December release would be perfect.

  5. Greg says:

    Just saw JW. How is that film not rated R?

    Chris Pratt is terrific.. I really enjoyed the effects and music as well… Big thumbs up from me…

  6. movieman says:

    Cad- It’s primarily because of the “Avatar” sequels that I made that crack.
    But seriously: if Cameron wanted to revisit “The Terminator” post-1991 he had plenty of chances.
    Smart, smart man.
    Which doesn’t explain his shilling for “Geneysis.” Maybe they paid him off.

  7. PcChongor says:

    What exactly are the producers of “The Bag Man” expecting to accomplish by re-releasing that unintentionally hilarious monstrosity under the new title, “The Carrier”? If they had any self-awareness at all, they’d keep it playing in LA and try to get it recognized as the next “The Room.”

  8. Sonny Hooper says:

    I enjoyed the latest Terminator, mostly because of the scenes that were basically remakes of scenes from the original. I admit it, I got a nostalgic kick out of seeing young (CGI) Arnold. Too bad that Terminator didn’t stick around for more of the movie. I really wish we could get a Terminator movie in which Arnold was the inhuman killing machine he was in the first one.

  9. brack says:

    James Cameron always had nice things to say about the later films. He’s not one to create waves.

  10. EtGuild2 says:

    Thursday number show a significant crash for TERMINATOR and MAGIC MIKE. INSIDE OUT and JURASSIC are 1-2 again…looks like INSIDE OUT has the leg up for the weekend. Today it will become the biggest animated movie since FROZEN and JW will pass TDK for 4th-all time.

  11. Bob Burns says:

    Channing Tatum managed to make a film with white black, latin@, gay, straight, male and female characters without it being a big deal and without most of the creepy stereotypes. It’s not hard, unless, of course, the directors and film-makers have their heads up their asses.

  12. movieman says:

    No disrespect to J.K. Simmons and Jason Clark, both of whom are very fine actors, but the only real pleasure I derived from “Genisys” was looking at Jai Courtney.
    Only wish that he’d been in “MM XXL” instead.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4