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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Indominus Klady

Weekeend Estimates 2015-06-14 at 8.45.53 AM

It wasn’t all that long ago that a $136 million opening weekend for Pirates 2 seemed exotic and exciting. 2006. In the nine years since that record-breaker ($21 million/18% more than previous record-holder Spider-Man in 2003), there have been 13 bigger domestic openings. If this estimate holds up, it will be $68 million more for this opening weekend record – about a 50% increase from 9 years ago – and it won’t even be the record-holder.

Don’t get me wrong. There is nothing less than thrilling for any studio for any movie opening to $100 million, much less $150 million… and close to $200 million, forget it. Yes, Disney would have liked Avengers: Age of Ultron to open to $20 million more domestically so it could break its own record… but in the long view, $20 million is (nearly) a rounding error on the film’s gross.

And Universal should be thrilled. Both Jurassic and Fast/Furious are franchises that waned a bit and then blew up massively. There really isn’t anything like them. Each of the non-Spielberg Jurassic sequels grossed less than $400 million worldwide. Fast Five made the big leap for that franchise in 2011, from $363 worldwide to $626 million worldwide, but this year’s entry nearly doubled any previous film in the franchise with $1.5 billion. China is more than $300 million of that leap (and needs an asterisk) from Fast & Furious 6, but even without that, it is a massive leap for an any franchise, much less an aging one.

As you might have figured, the domestic growth on these movies is significant, but minor in comparison to the international, both by percentage and gross numbers. Jurassic World should have the #2 all-time worldwide opening, over $400 million by the end of the first weekend, between Furious 7 and the final Potter movie. And it is worth noting that China, which is still limited in both the number of American movies being shown and the return on gross, is now actively in the opening weekend game, whereas just a few years ago, there was almost always delay of weeks or months before a Hollywood film would premiere there.

It is also worth noting that we are at an interesting moment for all these mega-openers. Aside from the final Hunger Games release, the only ongoing franchises that have opened to $125 million or more (16 films) are Avengers – though there is no current Avengers 3, as such, on the schedule – Fast & Furious, Pirates 5, and now, Jurassic. Potter, Twilight, Iron Man, Raimi’s SpiderMan, and Nolan’s Dark Knight are 10 of the 16 mega-openings… and Hunger another two with just one left on the way. Will Avengers and Iron Man translate into Civil Wars having similar numbers? Unknown. With Fantastic Beasts be in Potter‘s class? Unknown. Man of Steel opened to $117 million, so will the addition of Batman take the Snyder franchise over the top? We’ll know in nine months.

Of the 21 $250 million worldwide openings, only two (X:Men Days of Future Past and Pirates 4) launched with less than $100 million domestically. Domestic still matters. But there are now 11 (12 if J-World does it) $200m+ openings internationally and only two domestically, so we can’t get too cocky here at home.

Of course, you don’t need to have a $125m+ opening to be a mega-movie or to be enormously profitable. There are another 48 films that opened to between $75 million and $124.9 million. And there are very profitable films that open to less – sometimes a lot less – than that. The media – and me, today – obsesses on the mega-movies to the point of convincing itself as a whole that the mega-movie is the only business studios are in or want to be in these days. The $300m+ worldwide on Pitch Perfect 2 will be a big part of Universal’s portfolio, even if it is dwarfed by three other franchises this year (Minions is coming). And the hope will be that Ted 2 eclipses Pitch worldwide, which is could simply by losing less than 20% of the numbers from the first film (and it feels – having not seen it – more like a show-er than a grower).

As always seems to be the case, the price is paid by the middle class. There are 3 domestic openings of over $147 million this year, none between $147 million and $86 million, 7 between $50 million and $86 million, 5 between $30 million and $50 million… and everything else. That’s 15 openings of over $30 million against 46 releases on more than 2000 screens so far this year.

Obviously, each film has its own story and plenty of the under $30 million openers will make money for their distributors/producers, but the tough spot is that middle group ($50m- $86m) that is neither fish nor fowl. Studios really need some of those movies to open better, but not $10 million better. They are budgeted with an eye on the $100m opening range. The question is, are the few uber-openings softening the playing field for that next level? And can studios continue to have this kind of disparity work for them?

Universal is feasting this year on the ubers. The studio feasted last year on the smaller budget/smaller grosses model. Can they (or anyone) find a comfortable middle as we move forward?

87 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Indominus Klady”

  1. Gatsby1040 says:

    this makes it official — in all those studio development meetings the new catchphrase for “star part” applied to every in development script will be “a Chris pratt type”.

    first new major movie star since depp in pirates and RDJ in iron man, right? Am I forgetting anyone else?

  2. JS Partisan says:

    See, how much of it is Pratt? If Guardians 2 makes this much in a weekend, that would be a good barometer. If this is all about the kids needing a movie to see, because their parents can’t wait to take them to Inside Out. It will be interesting to see who this is really about. That’s still a ridiculously huge opening, but I am curious as fuck about next fucking weekend with this film. Hell. What the fuck is Mockingjay possibly opening too? Spectre? Does Star Wars do the ridiculous in December? If Jurassic World can open this big, then what else can happen? That’s fascinating shit.

  3. Jerryishere says:

    Sam Neill.

    Red October to JP

    Okay. Kidding. Everyone wants Pratt now.
    As they should. Although, I’d see his in the mouth of madness remake.

    This is a remarkable opening. Forget any aesthetic judgements (I mostly agree with DP’s review) — this thing has hit a nerve like NOTHING else this summer.
    Yes MMFR got people excited, but in a niche way.
    Avengers 2 got people to SEE it, but not to talk about it or really care.

    And I think it’s, as others say, all about the kids. They’re eating it up like nothing else. And while I wouldn’t take my five year old to this, many are. Just like they did with JP 22 years ago.

    With no four quadrant action movie left this summer (sorry terminator and ant man and Ethan hunt, you guys are more niche — meaning anyone of those films would be happy to have JWs weekend as their TOTAL) it’s looking good for JW. Mass audiences aren’t walking out disgruntled. They’re getting exactly what they came for. Yes, it will have a big drop next week. Anything at this height will. But I somehow don’t think it will be an alarming one.

  4. Monco says:

    Et, Bradley Cooper maybe?

  5. JS Partisan says:

    Jerry, that’s thing: what if it is an alarming one? What if, opening to 204 million, can drop off like an X-Men movie? How does Inside Out even come close to winning next weekend, without JW majorly collapsing? It’s fascinating stuff, but again… Star Wars. Does Star Wars open to fucking 250? 300? Is it opening a week before Christmas going to cost a major opening? If a fucking nostalgia trip can open this big, then what the fuck is that major nostalgia trip going to do?

    Also, people enjoyed fucking Ultron, but it was way too much of the same. I enjoy the fucking movie, but the MCU audience had moved on from where Joss brought it. He took them back three years ago, instead of movie them a head, and that movie shows it in spades. Here’s to Civil War being the Avengers movie we deserved!

  6. Aaron Aradillas says:

    JURASSIC PARK 4 did not make $200 million this weekend because of Chris Pratt. Pratt is just part of the overall marketing package. He’s what Goldblum was 20 years ago. Remember how we thought it was cool he was in INDEPENDENCE DAY? Well, we didn’t go to ID4 because of Goldblum. He was just part of the package. Pratt’s price wil go up but he’s not Depp or Downey. He doesn’t have a signature style. (Hell, Bradley Cooper has more of style than Pratt. I suspect THE A-TEAM would do much better if released now.) People forget how long it took Harrison Ford to prove himself. The first half of the 1980s he was either Han Solo or Indiana Jones. BLADE RUNNER floped upon its inital release. Peter Weir took a chance on Ford’s star power to fuel his hard-R thriller. Pratt needs a WITNESS if he wants to prove he can really rule the box office.

  7. EtGuild2 says:

    What’s probably the biggest story of the weekend is bound to get lost in the weeds; this is the biggest overall weekend in American box office history, breaking an almost 6 year old record (Avatar, Sherlock, Alvin. Christmas 2009) that was beginning to look unassailable, at least in the summer months, until Pratt and his raccoon teamed up with the Avengers. The fact it happened in June is even crazier.

    Take that, media narrative.

    BTW….really bummed for this ME AND EARL opening. It just got swamped, and it’s a big let-down given how much better it is than recent similar fare.

  8. Jerryishere says:

    Next week’s drop is almost irrelevant.
    Super Conservatively JW’s floor is 400million.
    500-600 all possible.
    Worldwide, it would be shocking if it didn’t cruise past a billion.
    Franchise reborn.

    As for Star Wars, no clue. But opening in December is about legs not records.
    I suspect Star Wars will be the first film to break 100 million on three consecutive weekends. 12/18, 12/25, and 1/1.
    Even if it doesn’t I bet it will be close.
    I think Disney won’t have any complaints.
    The weekend record can be for Rian Johnson.

  9. Bulldog68 says:

    The thing about Bradley Cooper though is that none of his hits are Kid Friendly. The Hangover series, Silver Linings, American Hustle, American Sniper. And GotG was voice only, so to put his face in front of a potential four quadrant movie will not be an automatic sell.

    Pratt is getting there. GotG was an unknown property, albeit in the Marvel universe and could have been a miss if you didn’t take the journey with Chris Pratt, so right start/right role, and he fit the part and played the hell out of it. Now the same with JW. He’s accessible enough for the kiddies with the right amount of adult swagger to not make the helicopter parents all nervous. I think his candidacy to be the next Indiana Jones is all but sewn up now. I’m very interested in one of his upcoming projects, a Magnificent Seven remake directed by Antoine Fuqua and also starring Denzel Washington, Vincent D’Onofrio and Ethan Hawke. I think the pairings are interesting. Of course a reunion for the current stars of JW, and also a reunion for Director and stars of Training Day.

    As for JW’s future weekends, 60% still gives it an $80m 2nd weekend, and while Inside Out will steal those kiddies, there a lots of 10 years olds out there who want to see this either for the first time and their parents avoided the first weekend crowd, and others who want to see it again. Something of a shocker that Ultron will not be the #1 movie of the summer. Lost World had the worst legs of the entire series and it’s Opening Weekend was only 31% of the final gross. The much maligned 3rd installment actually had better legs with 28%. With this sized opening the legs will be worse, but people are eating this up as the event movie of the summer. This gets to $500m.

    Mockingjay has no chance of out opening this. We already know what that audience size is. The only movie with a chance is Star Wars, and as JW proves, nostalgia is a big bitch. And I can’t think of any movie with a bigger nostalgia factor than Star Wars. Just think, a movie starring Jar Jar binks made $431m back in 1999. I think we’ll be looking at the first $200m opening in December.

  10. Pj says:

    Losing audience isnt merely a rounding error. The fact that Jurassic World, a long dormant franchise will beat AoU coming off eleventy billion lead up films that supposedly had goodwill is not hot prospects for future Marvel movies. Diminishing returns are quantifiable.

  11. JS Partisan says:

    I know December is about legs, but this JW shit is ridiculous. No one saw this coming, but Star Wars is coming. Hell. Disney should move that fucker up in December to a Hobbit day, so they can crank the fuck out of that opening weekend.

    Diminishing returns? The moment they see Giant Man and Spider-man in a trailer for Civil War come January. People will forget about diminishing returns. Hell. Cumberbatch is going to open this shit up to a bunch of new people as Strange, so please stop selling Marvel as flailing. It’s a bit ridiculous, and stop forgetting one thing: PEOPLE WANTED A FUCKING SUMMER MOVIE, AND THEY FINALLY GOT ONE! We shouldn’t be shocked, that they took their kids to see JW in droves.

  12. Nick Rogers says:

    “Both non-Spielberg sequels.”

    Certainly a typo but an amusing, and telling, one.

  13. Geoff says:

    Hey JS you don’t work for Marvel now do you? :)

    Marvel isn’t going anywhere anytime soon – they’re going to make close to $1.5 billion with ‘Ultron, a movie that has had truly had a mixed response to rival Man of Steel…..so the cash is still flowing in.

    But there’s no way ‘Civil War even comes close to this….bold prediction, but I’m making it now. Just under a year after an Avengers movie that most folks were “eh” on, I don’t think it’s the strongest move to push out….a pseudo-Avengers movie now. Honestly, I think their obsession with bringing back Spiderman is going to cost them – they didn’t NEED Spiderman! What they needed to keep things fresh (and to plow through on a slate into 2028, as Feige was bragging about last year) was to get a kick-ass Captain Marvel or Black Panther movie out there sooner than later….build up some diversity for the Marvel brand. And it looks like they missed their window on a huge Black Widow film as well – Lucy made more than $400 million worldwide last year and was rated R, they could have DOUBLED that with a well-marketed Black Widow film within the next year.

    I’m really curious to see how Ant-Man does next month – ‘Guardians did almost $100 opening last August, so who knows? Just that July seems super-competitive and the ‘Ant is going to have no room to breathe.

  14. Geoff says:

    And Star Wars is not likely to open bigger but I think the December release is going to help it majorly – it could easily do more than $100 million each of its first three weekends if people actually like it.

  15. Geoff says:

    Oh yeah one silly question: why the hell didn’t Universal/Legendary get a Warcraft teaser trailer ready to attached to Jurassic World??? The film completed production months ago and is coming out a year from now – golden opportunity missed.

  16. That Guy says:

    Of COURSE Chris Pratt is a huge factor in this opening. Don’t be ridiculous. That said, a lot of it was because this is the first four quadrant movie since Avengers 2.

    But Chris Pratt had to have played a role in the success. I can’t imagine this same movie, but with Chris Hemsworth in the Pratt role, opening this big.

    It’s anecdotal but the audience when I saw it cheered when Pratt showed up. Guy is becoming a brand.

    And Ant-Man’s success is still up in the air IMO… getting a lot of curiosity about it from non-comic fans in my day to day life. The potential is there. Disney needs to release a new trailer with a really good new gag to convince people.

  17. Brandon says:

    Did I miss a direct-to-DVD entry, or was there only one non-Spielberg Jurassic sequel heretofore?

  18. movieman says:

    I read that Universal is remaking “Kindergarten Cop.”
    Yeah, whatever.
    Instead of going the obvious route (Diesel or Mr. Rock, both of whom have done their own variation on the “KC” template), I’d love to see Chris Pratt take on the old Schwarzenegger role.
    Make the cop less of a hardass and more of an Andy Dwyer-style goofball: the scenes of Pratt interacting w/ the kiddies would be priceless.
    Of course, Pratt already has his plate full for the next half dozen years (or more) w/ franchise sequels.

  19. movieman says:

    Oh, yeah.
    Bryce Dallas Howard was such a stiff in “Jurassic World,” it made me wonder why they didn’t just ask Chris’ better half.
    Anna Faris would have been infinitely preferable to Howard.
    (Killing a dinosaur and kissing the boy automatically transforms her automaton-like character into a human being? Huh?)

    I’ve got a feeling that Howard’s career will get a new lease on life just by accepting whatever roles/movies Jessica Chastain turns down.

  20. JS Partisan says:

    Geoff, if you think Civil War doesn’t come close to this opening, then you really aren’t paying attention. Marvel needed Spidey, because he’s Spidey. He’s a part of what makes Marvel… Marvel. Without him, there is a hole, and now they are going to fill it with some kid, that we will watch grow up over the next ten years. Spidey, done right, is money. Guess what? He’s never been done right. Now it’s Marvel’s turn to make the webslinger spectacular, and if you don’t get how awesome that may be. Well, really, there are FIVE OTHER SPIDER-MAN FILMS FOR YOU TO WATCH :D!

    Oh yeah, Marvel didn’t miss their window with Black Widow. She’s the 1b of the Captain America movies, and one of the most popular characters they’ve got. They haven’t even come close to scratching the surface on what they can do with that character.

    Also, your “MIXED RESPONSE” thing, is bullshit. Man of Steel featured HOPE MURDERING A GUY, and that’s why a good segment of us have told DC to DROP FUCKING DEAD! Ultron had Joss doing Joss things, and they just didn’t go over with millennials, who Jessie Owensed his ass, but that’s unfortunately the way of things.

    One unrelated side-note: did girls get dragged to JW, or is there enough FROZEN MAGIC in the world, to help Inside Out… out? I sure as shit hope so, because Disney will use any opportunity it can, to put girls back in the corner. Which is, and will forever be… BULLFUCKINGSHIT!

  21. Pete B. says:

    Gee JS, has your memory faded in the past three years?

    “Spidey, done right, is money. Guess what? He’s never been done right.”

    That wasn’t the tune you were singing in July 2012 when Amazing Spider-man came out.

    “Spidey never got his due on screen before. All of those Raimi films, all of them, have very good Spidey moments, but never captured how I have always felt about the webslinger. This film, unlike the previous trilogy, captured the Spidey I love from the comics, and that’s why it’s the only Spider-man movie for me.”

  22. Jules says:

    @Gatsby1040: I think you definitely want to include Jennifer Lawrence with that group…in fact Variety did as well, except their “elite” group is Harrison Ford, RDJ, Jr., and Jennifer Lawrence.

    Lawrence has contributed billions to the Box Office not only with The Hunger Games series, but X-Men as well as Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle.

    Oh, and Jennifer Lawrence tops all the men in this category by also being critically acclaimed: three Oscar nominations, one win for Best Actress, Golden Globes, SAG, as well as Indie Spirits, etc.,.

    Who else in Hollywood has achieved that feat?.

  23. JS Partisan says:

    Pete, and then I watched it three more times. It just gets worse every time it’s on. I love the fucking idea of the cranes helping him get downtown, but Jesus Christ on a Cracker is that stupid. The Lizard is just shitty looking. He’s a great Ditko designed character, that they turned into CGI SHIT… AND I FUCKING LOVE CGI MORE THAN MOST PEOPLE! Uncle Ben, once again gets killed for some stupid shit, but this time THEY NEVER SHOW US WHO HE IS! Apparently, that C plot needed to carry on!

    You then, get to the whole storyline they cut from the film, the stupid shit with Denis Leary’s character, and that whole fucking oath to Captain Stacy. Rewatch that movie. It’s staggering in it’s ability to have great Spider-man moments, then suck the life out of you like everything else. Gwen and Pete do have chemistry, but that ending is as stupid as the ending of the first Spider-man. The follow-up, really fucking killed this part of Spidey’s film career for me, but this is my point about Marvel and Spidey: THEY HAVEN’T HAD THE CHANCE TO DO HIM JUSTICE! Avi (or Sony) have always been around to throw in stupid shit, that derailed what should be easy to show on screen. Peter, is a kid who talks trash, kicks ass, and saves the day more than most. You don’t need stupid family drama, stupid friend drama, or stupid Uncle Ben drama. All you need is a kid, who has lost his parents, but has been given the ability to save lives. It’s easy shit, that I hope Kevin Feige gets right.

    Seriously though, people change their fucking minds all the time, but thank you for being bored enough to look up how I felt three years ago.

  24. Bulldog68 says:

    Pete B, how dare you use a man’s own words as evidence against him. I mean after all, you should have been able to use your Jedi mind powers to know that JS changed his mind.

  25. JS Partisan says:

    Bulldog, isn’t it obvious that I changed my mind? Good lord, man. Obvious is obvious, but please continue stating it’s not obvious.

    Just in case this isn’t obvious either: good lord, that Green Lantern movie is ridiculous. They capture some decent space cop action, but who in the fuck thought a SHIT CLOUD would be a good villain? Of all the fucking villains in the GL archieve, they go with Parallax, and turn him into a SHIT CLOUD! I’d put money down, that Parallax was the same shitty fucking cloud CGI from that god damn awful second FF movie.

    Here’s to FOX, doing something with the FF, even if Ike curbstomped the FF out of existence.

  26. Pete B. says:

    Actually JS, I remembered how you felt 3 years ago because you posted multiple times how great Amazing was, and how Dark Knight Rises sucked, because BATMAN NEVER QUITS!
    I just wanted to quote you accurately.

    And yes, people do change their minds, but that was a complete 180.

  27. Bulldog68 says:

    Yes it`s obvious JS, because we hang out all the time and you have made your change of opinion on this topic very clear so many times. Here`s the part where you provide the quote that disputes what Pete B said and we will promptly shut the fuck up. Not saying that I don’t believe that’s how you feel now, just saying provide the evidence that we should have known this. My memory is not very good, so I’m absolutely willing to be corrected on this.

  28. JS Partisan says:

    Pete, I am going to throw you for another loop! I have grown to LOVE, TDKR! How did that happen? Yeah. It has some uneven shit going on in it, but it has just enough to make it work. It works a lot better than CRANES TO DOWNTOWN, and it even has it’s own version of that… TAKING THE NUKES TO SEA! Still, it’s a lot more tolerable upon reviewing than ASM, because ASM is just fucking goofy. it’s Spider-man 3 goofy, but it is trying so seriously to not be that goofy.

    Bulldog, I don’t really fucking remember it either, but I do remember really loving ASM upon seeing it the first time. After that, it just went fucking down hill. Also, why would I dispute Pete? He obviously isn’t making that shit up, but shit changes over time. Hell. I am just not sure there has ever been a blog to state, “Hey guys! Fucking ASM! IT’S FUCKING GOOFY!”

  29. Bulldog68 says:

    It’s amazing to go from “ The film it is, remains one of the most special and amazing comic book movies ever made.“ To what you say today.

    It’s not that you changed your mind that is absurd, even though it’s probably the starkest 180 degree turn I’ve seen on this blog, but it’s your audacity to accuse Pete B of not knowing that you did a 180 that is the absurd part. If all you’d said to Pete was that after seeing it a couple more times that you changed your mind on the film, that would have been that.

  30. leahnz says:

    peteB will look shit up

  31. JS Partisan says:

    Bulldog, that’s what I did. Hell. ASM start to bug me for months, and it peaked when I fucking bought the blu-ray. I bought the blu-ray thinking, “Nah. It still has to be that film, that excited me in theater.” Nope. it wasn’t. Seriously, it’s not absurd to change your mind on a film, that came out 3 years ago. A film that you watched a lot on Starz, and even once or twice on Encore. Why you find that shocking, is more shocking, because who feels the same way about some of these movies forever? I really fucking loved ID4 when it came out, but now? Good lord, is that fucking movie terrible in every single fucking way.

    Also, what audacity? I stated that I changed my mind to Pete, and it reads pretty civilly. If you don’t see that; then you apparently think I am unworthy of your belief in my having any civility. Which, again, it’s obvious how fucking civil I was up there.

  32. Pete B says:

    TDKR also has its goofy moments too as I swear there are scenes shown out of order. But its still a satisfying film.

  33. brack says:

    Not sure where David is getting his numbers, but first weekend worldwide opening for Jurassic World is a little over $511m, easily beating Harry Potter 7 Part 2.

  34. EtGuild2 says:

    @brack, the write-up came before the worldwide numbers were released, but yeah it topped POTTER. I will say though, even though it counts for nothing, a $483 million worldwide opening without China is still the most impressive ever in my book.

    JW can thank the flunkies at the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television for this particular record thanks to their firmly held belief that JR Rowling is a “sorceress.”

  35. brack says:

    Potter grossed $60m in China according to boxofficemojo.com.

  36. EtGuild2 says:

    Yup, it was released a month later after it was hacked to pieces and had already been widely disseminated on DVD. Potter is a national obsession in China despite the censors and would have been a record-breaker at the time if it had gotten a proper release.

    Even the “Hu Jintao Dictator Cut” opening would be enough to hold the current record over JW if it had been a day and date opening. Hence the problem with “worldwide opening” records.

  37. brack says:

    Ah, that’s some interesting trivia.

  38. David Poland says:

    Yes… numbers came in late… and $511m is a 5-day number…

  39. tbunny says:

    June 14th was a special day in the history of this blog.

  40. brack says:

    5-day number? Don’t you mean 4-day if we are now counting evening/midnight showings? Where did you see this opening on Wednesday? No outlet is calling this a 5-day number.

    “Actual” weekend number is now $209m domestic. Got a new champ.

  41. Hcat says:

    So legendary delivers blackhat and seventh son to universal and in exchange gets a cut or F7 and Jurrasiac, talk about nice work if you can get it!!!

    So Universal with all this money burning a hole in your pocket remember your limitations. F7, Bourne and even Despicle Me started as modestly budgeted pictures that hit big and grew. The firstPark, which was the closest thing to a sure thing as there ever was, wasn’t even the costliest film Universal had ever mad much less of all time. So after a blockbuster year with a financing partner who is itching to write checks just whisper the word ‘Battleship’ to yourself before you make any greenlight decisions and remember that you have never launched a franchise off a film with a budget of nine digits.

  42. Hcat says:

    And as for Cooper’s movie star status I would have to say absolutely. I don’t get Bulldog’s arguement about him not making four quadrant movies being a hindarence. Doesn’t that make him more legit than say Depp who hasn’t drawn a solely adult audience since public enemies?

  43. EtGuild2 says:

    “5-day number? Don’t you mean 4-day if we are now counting evening/midnight showings? Where did you see this opening on Wednesday? No outlet is calling this a 5-day number.”

    $25 million of the international haul is from shows that actually took place during the day Wednesday or Tuesday night….and probably another $20 million from Thursday day shows. So using the Thursday night standard, it probably didn’t break the record. A lot of stretching going on.

    But domestic….woohoo!

    From deadline:

    PREVIOUS, THURSDAY, 11:39 AM PT: Jurassic World domination has commenced. The Universal/Legendary reboot of the classic franchise stomped out in China, France and six smaller markets on Wednesday. At 6,824 theaters, it grossed a total of $21M. Including previews in 12 additional markets, Indominous Rex took a $24.5M

  44. Hcat says:

    “Got a new champ”

    I await JS’s explanation about why this is not REALLY the case, or needs half a dozen asterisks.

  45. Greg says:

    I had no intention of going to a theater to see this when they first announced the plans for the sequel. 511 million in 4.43727 days? I’m probably in at that point but Chris Pratt pushes it over the top.

  46. PJ says:

    Actuals are in and it is now the #1 opening weekend of ALL TIME. Thanks for playing, Avengers.

  47. palmtree says:

    Good thing for JW there were no sports events this past weekend. (to be read sarcastically)

  48. Bulldog68 says:

    My exact words Hcat were ” so to put his face in front of a potential four quadrant movie will not be an automatic sell.”

    That is far different from stating he’s a hindrance.

    In comparison, I think a lot more kids know who Chris Pratt is than they do Bradley Cooper because of the types of blockbusters that they have fronted. So just on the awareness factor alone, if you’re looking for a star for your next four quadrant movie, Pratt will be higher on that scale. Hey, the guy already has his own action figure.

    Would Jurassic have sold just as much tickets if Cooper was at the helm? That’s an absolutely debateable question, and my humble opinion is not quite as much. Maybe Pratt brought just enough to get it beyond $200m. But it’s ironic that Bradley Cooper’s name was bandied about as well to be the next Indiana Jones. But who the fuck knows anything anyway.

  49. Geoff says:

    JS, do you REALLY think that audiences are clamoring for ANOTHER Spiderman this soon?? If they meet their target of releasing a stand-alone film in 2017, that will be barely three years after Garfield played him – seriously, Marvel is only hurting themselves by crow-barring him into their movies at the expense of every one else.

    And things are looking iffier now – what a shock, Sony is ponying up the money so of course, they want to have final authority on who plays him over Feige and Co.

    And look, I know you’re all over the place with those previous films – I think Spiderman 2 is about as close to a perfect Spiderman film as we are going to get, fantastic movie and I don’t get the revisionism but…..

    Is the Spiderman “we have all been waiting for” really a young Peter Parker who’s just one small cog in the Avengers universe?? A 15 year old getting schooled by Tony Stark, overshadowed by Steve Rogers right off the bat…..THAT is the Spiderman/Peter Parker that folks have been pining for over decades?? :) Look I get the appeal of seeing him with The Avengers just like I see the appeal of Wolverine fighting alongside them – sounds like a blast – but I’m not buying that THIS version (which is probably going to be cobbled together by committee) is going to be the PURE Spiderman we have all been waiting for.

  50. Hcat says:

    Ah sorry Bulldog, got your entire point backwards, no wonder I didn’t understand it.

  51. Bulldog68 says:

    Perfectly fine Hcat. Fun fact, Bradley Cooper is in 4 of the top 11 R Rated Domestic grossing movies of all time. Sniper, 2 Hangovers, and Wedding Crashers.

  52. leahnz says:

    i’m genuinely baffled (and saddened tbh) how anyone can view the J World sequel behemoth as something to celebrate or in any way a good thing for cinema

  53. EtGuild2 says:

    Worse films have held the US record Leah. “Pirates 2″ and “Spider-Man 3,” both of which have their supporters. Well…maybe not “Spider Man 3,” but I remember rabid Jack Sparrow fans on movie blogs telling Marvel to suck it when PIRATES blew the roof off the record to that point. So I wouldn’t call this some low point in film.

    Opening weekend has never been about quality. Of the films that have held the opening weekend record since “Spider-Man” broke $100 mil and changed the perception of openings, I’d rank the movies this way.

    Great:

    1. TDK
    2. Potter Finale

    Good:

    3. The Avengers
    4. Spider-Man

    Mediocre:

    5. Jurassic World

    Bad:

    6. Dead Man’s Chest
    7. Spider-Man 3

  54. Hcat says:

    You can almost always say there are better films out there than what tops the box office in any given week. But isn’t the fact that there is something driving people into cinemas good for the overall industry? I am sure there are literary people that bemoan Dan Brown, but isn’t it great that people are reading anything?

  55. EtGuild2 says:

    I think you’re right, which is why I’m surprised there hasn’t been more mention of the fact this weekend topped the 2009 record for biggest industry weekend domestically. 4 of the top 15 (and nearly 5 of the top 20) weekends ever have now happened in 2015.

    Then again, yes, all these weekends are driven by behemoths at the top without the kind of depth that 2009 had with 3 wide releases and 2 wide expansions for prestige pictures. But that’s just the way of things now.

  56. Hcat says:

    If you look at the weekend drops it seems like this behemoth didn’t do too much damage to the rest of the field (nothing was going to keep insidious from dropping 70%). So it’s success is not at the expense of other films, sure it may keep Inside Out from the top spot next weekend, but the film will still perform like gangbusters without the crown.

  57. EtGuild2 says:

    $25.3 million for JW on Monday. That’s 3rd all time for a Monday behind Memorial Day 2008 (Crystal Skull) and July 5th 2004 (Spider-Man 2).

    We’re only 4 days in, but $500 million seems very doable.

  58. brack says:

    Most definitely has a chance. The movie clearly is a crowd pleaser, otherwise the movie would have had a huge drop off by Monday, but instead has the best non-holiday Monday ever (unadjusted).

  59. Hcat says:

    The previous two installments both had decent legs while being generally less well received than this entry. Even the third did three times opening and it doesn’t have the added buzz of being a record breaker, which I always thinks helps… too busy to look myself now but what have other record holders dropped in the second?

  60. Bulldog68 says:

    I really do think that $500m is not only doable but JW has a real shot at eclipsing The Avengers $623m gross.

    Avengers dropped by 67% first Monday, JW, 55.7% and that’s from a higher Opening Weekend. That’s a significant difference.

  61. Hcat says:

    Well schools out

    But I agree this will play for awhile, two weeks until Ted challenges it for young men and no action until Terminator drops (like an egg on pavement) two weeks after that.

  62. Hallick says:

    “i’m genuinely baffled (and saddened tbh) how anyone can view the J World sequel behemoth as something to celebrate or in any way a good thing for cinema”

    Box office records are the beer goggles of cinema (cf. Avatar, Furious 7, etc).

  63. palmtree says:

    It does feel weird for the record to be held by such a middling movie. But I am happy for Universal, whose big movies like Furious 7 and Pitch Perfect are showing diverse images on screen.

    Besides, other than Despicable Me, Uni hasn’t really had viable franchises for the past decade or so. Now this year they have 5 (Fast, Despicable, Jurassic, Pitch, Grey)…maybe 6 if Ted does well. I’m just rooting for the underdog.

  64. Hallick says:

    The glow coming off “Jurassic World” is the same one enjoyed by less-than-attractive nobodies who find themselves holding the winning Powerball ticket. Ungodly sums of money just make for the best deodorant.

  65. Bulldog68 says:

    I know I’d be feeling a lot sicker to my stomach if it was a Pirates or Transformers movie.

    I’m not gonna go full on hate on JW. Sure I wish Mad Max could do these numbers, but that’s in an alternate universe. I for one think they tried. I wonder if the original JP was released last Friday, what would we think of it without the benefit of years of nostalgia. Would it have been viewed as an obvious cash grab by critics today?

    This was Kenneth Turan’s review of JP: Do the dinosaurs work? Indeed they do. Does anything else? Not really.

    And this was Terrence Rafferty of JP:
    For all the ingenuity of the movie’s engineering, Jurassic Park doesn’t have the imagination — or the courage — to take us any place we haven’t been a thousand times before. It’s just a creature feature on amphetamines.

    Those reviews look familiar?

    Yes, JP is a technical marvel, but that is only part of the nostalgia and really the general public could give too shits about that. It’s how something made them feel. Would the original JP make them feel the same in 2015 with this level of been-there-done-that attitudes?

    The thing is that the Pirates and Transformers sequels movies made the general public feel robbed. Not getting that vibe from JW. Yes it’s a heavily flawed movie that is really just a paint by numbers version of JP. But I’ll add it’s a good paint by numbers version. I’m kind of surprised that people expected more than that.

  66. leahnz says:

    “The glow coming off “Jurassic World” is the same one enjoyed by less-than-attractive nobodies who find themselves holding the winning Powerball ticket. Ungodly sums of money just make for the best deodorant”

    – not sure why but this is funny (and probably true)

    “And this was Terrence Rafferty of JP:
    For all the ingenuity of the movie’s engineering, Jurassic Park doesn’t have the imagination — or the courage — to take us any place we haven’t been a thousand times before. It’s just a creature feature on amphetamines.”

    – this is retarded. J P didn’t have imagination or courage to go somewhere we haven’t been a thousand times before? when was that exactly, when was there anything even remotely approaching J P before at the cinema, this is WHY it was so well-received and not just by kids but by adults, because there’d never been anything like it, not even close. this critique is just bullshiiiiiit

    (quoting a couple cherry-picked critics doesn’t really cut it trying to make the argument that J Park wasn’t really that special or magical bulldog and it’s just ‘nostalgia’ – enough with this bs already, no, it’s not; re critics J Park was much better reviewed than J W, that’s just a fact, if that’s the comparison du jour. of course J park wouldn’t play the same today in this gamed-out all-CGI-all-the-time nonsensical-action-conditioned insipid-storytelling era, which can probably be said for many classic, innovative movies unfortunately)

    i didn’t see J World in the cinema with the public but a friend told me the showing he saw was just packed with mostly kids, so that says a great deal. he thought it was inane.

    and WTF (not towards anyone specifically tbc), is this really what it’s come to? the “oh well it’s not as bad as these other pieces of stinkier shit, it’s good paint-by-numbers stuff, why expect more than that?” shoulder shrug?

    RAGE AGAINST THE DYING OF THE LIGHT. RAGE AGAINST THE MACHINE. big blockbuster pop cinema doesn’t ‘have’ to be this way, when did just accepting degrees of pedestrianism and mediocrity become the default position. where are the INNOVATORS? where is the fresh blood, where are the new directors with the nerve and vision and creativity and storytelling prowess to take it somewhere unexpected and fresh, take it to the next level (trevarrow most certainly ain’t it, fuckadoodledoo what a crashing bore, some of the old guard are still around but they’re slowly but surely aging out)
    we don’t have to stagnate in CGI mediocrity, J World didn’t HAVE to be so dumb, just one set piece connected by banal, dull storytelling to another, this is not some preordained state of mainstream cinema, this is not the best we can do (i feel like Mills to somerset in Seven, “i don’t believe it, I DO NOT”)

    ETA does anyone remember Sayles (!) story/designs for J 4 way back when, with dinosaur/human hybrid creatures in a dr. moreau-esque setting? I’m not suggesting that this would have necessarily worked but at least it was something weird and outrageous and gutsy; at the end of the novel Jurassic Park some of the dinos escape onto the mainland, which would have set up all kinds of storytelling possibilities for future instalments, but no, instead we get pretty much another ballsweat reboot

  67. brack says:

    I haven’t seen JW yet, so I can’t say how it stacks up to JP, but JP, I agree, is classic Spielberg blockbuster filmmaking. It had good scares, laughs, and it was something we had never seen before on screen. Was it perfect? No, but the characters were developed enough for me to care what happened. That’s all you really need to do to make a monster/disaster movie to work on somewhat of an emotional level. But something tells me JW is entertaining. Just look at the Monday numbers. Monday numbers are rarely ever this good. Word of mouth is good, it had an A CinemaScore rating, so again, it’s a crowd pleaser. I’m not saying it’s a good movie, but people seem to be liking it.

  68. EtGuild2 says:

    “I really do think that $500m is not only doable but JW has a real shot at eclipsing The Avengers $623m gross.”

    AVENGERS’ $623 million seems out of reach, only because that summer was dominated by two all-time hits that didn’t compete with each other.

    INSIDE OUT>>>DARK SHADOWS
    TED 2/MAX>BATTLESHIP/DICTATOR/WHAT TO EXPECT
    MAGIC MIKE/TERMINATOR>MIB/CHERNOBYL
    MINIONS/GALLOWS/SELFLESS>>>SWATH

    I suppose anything can happen, but people only have so much disposable money to spend on movies, and you’d have to have a bunch of movies miss on tracking for JW to keep blowing the doors off (it’s looking at $80-85 this weekend which is about $20 less than AVENGERS’ 2nd).It’s easy to forget that summer 2012 was as a whole weak sauce filled with more write-downs than any summer this decade because it was propped up by 2 gargantuan superhero movies and the Aurora shooting happened. The #3 opening was BRAVE at $66 million, which would probably be good for 7th or 8th this year.

  69. Stella's Boy says:

    I do remember the Sayles script leah. Trevorrow says he loved it. He called it a crazy script that’s also really well-written.

    I thought about seeing Jurassic World on Saturday when I had some rare free time, but I decided to stay home and watch Spring instead. Glad I did. That is a great little movie.

  70. Bulldog68 says:

    I quoted those reviews because at the end of the day, it’s all subjective.

    I happen to think that The Horse Whisperer, Boyhood, The English Patient, Out of Africa, The Artist, were all boring pieces of cinema. If Boyhood wasn’t filmed over 12 years or whatever and used the same actors, then what? Still a boring pile of goo.

    I am firmly in the camp that JP was superior in every way, and while I sometimes want to scream to the mountain tops like you Leah, I also accept the fact that mainstream has always been a popularity contest, and in a popularity contest, quality becomes even more subjective and not as major a contributor to overall box office as is manipulated emotions and set pieces designed to sell burgers.

    Dems the breaks. Sometimes we get Transformers 1 and Pirates 1 that were better than most people expected it would be, and then you get Transformers 2-4 and Pirates 3-4, that insulted your intelligence and just completely erased any goodwill the prequels had established.

    JW IMO kept some of that goodwill.

  71. Smith says:

    Pretty remarkable numbers, quality aside (I haven’t seen it). Nearly $50m just from Monday and Tuesday, should be close to $300m by the end of Thursday, $375m-plus by Sunday. Even if it doesn’t hold up against the competition coming down the pike, $550m seems like a minimum.

  72. Matt P. says:

    If it doesn’t make $100 mil over the weekend, I’ll be shocked. Steady numbers of $25 mil through Thursday should get that 300 you’re talking about. Should be around 400-410 by the end of Sunday.

  73. leahnz says:

    i’m glad someone recalls the audacious Sayles version Stella’s, the actual creature designs are probably online somewhere, i haven’t had time to look (Sayles’ work intrigues me, it’s fascinating to think what might have been tho it probably had a snowball’s chance in hell of getting made)

  74. Stella's Boy says:

    I love Sayles. Some of his movies are all-time favorites. Here’s some concept art that’s allegedly related to the 2005 script by Sayles and William Monahan.

    http://www.slashfilm.com/wtf-jurassic-park-4-almost-featured-human-dino-hybrids-the-karate-kid-iii-planned-as-kung-fu-flick-with-flying-people/

  75. Ray Pride says:

    Sayles’ unproduced work includes NIGHT SKIES, a variation on CLOSE ENCOUNTERS he wrote for Spielberg. And he’s been a script refiner for decades.

  76. leahnz says:

    thanks for posting that SB, that’s the concept art i was thinking of
    and interesting factoid about ‘night skies’ Ray, i’ve heard of it and always wanted to read it. Sayles is a really fine writer, probably too good considering the lowest-common-denominator nonsensical rubbish being produced in the mainstream now; i’ll never understand how ‘lone star’ – one of the finest films of modern American cinema – isn’t on the radar more when ‘all-time’ lists are bandied about and discussions had, it seems like a ‘lost’ classic that no-one talks about somehow, baffling.

    reading just a bit of that linked slant article with the concept art has made me think about just how much i disliked J World, there’s such a mean-spiritedness and callousness to it that just feels wrong, there’s no magic and feeling — it’s as if they decided to take the most insipid and least compelling aspects of ‘The Lost World’ and ran with everything wrong with that movie, amplified that tone. the OG JP had a range of characters with the partnership of dr. grant and dr. sattler at the heart of the narrative as well developed characters that felt like actual human beings surrounded by well drawn archetypes – malcolm the quirky arrogant city-boy asshole mathematician, hammond the deluded showman with the cliché grandkids, gennaro the greedy lawyer, muldoon the righteous, beleaguered gamekeeper, etc; contrast that with the thinly-veiled reboot in which there are ONLY one-note ‘caricatures’ and archetypes, nobody feels like an actual person (maybe the jake Johnson guy is the only person i wanted to survive), everyone and everything feels so contrived and fake and cruel, so asshole-y, blech.

  77. EtGuild2 says:

    My guess on JURASSIC WORLD: $610 million domestic, $1.65 billion WW

  78. movieman says:

    For me, the single most annoying character in the movie is the little boy.
    Such a whiney crybaby–and he needed a haircut, dammit, lol.

    I would have been happier if Chris Pratt and Jake Johnson had ended up together: that’s a dream match!

  79. palmtree says:

    Funny that now Jurassic Park is a paragon of good character development. I remember when it came out it was lambasted for how under-developed the characters were just so we could get to the real stars, which were the raptors and T Rex obvs. Kinda fascinating how the goalposts of taste keep moving.

  80. Bulldog68 says:

    “Funny that now Jurassic Park is a paragon of good character development.”

    Who is stating that? Most of positives I’ve read focused on the thrills and Special Effects. I haven’t really read any that said the characters were well written.

  81. Hallick says:

    “Sayles is a really fine writer, probably too good considering the lowest-common-denominator nonsensical rubbish being produced in the mainstream now; i’ll never understand how ‘lone star’ – one of the finest films of modern American cinema – isn’t on the radar more when ‘all-time’ lists are bandied about and discussions had, it seems like a ‘lost’ classic that no-one talks about somehow, baffling.”

    I’m even more perplexed that Sayles never found a home on a cable channel where he could really dig into one of his communities of characters with a story that didn’t have to be tied up in a couple of hours. His film career has been languishing in the realms of the marginal since 1999 when “Limbo” came out. I wonder if he just doesn’t like the idea of working on the same thing year-in, year-out.

  82. palmtree says:

    Bulldog, read Leah’s comment previous to mine.

  83. leahnz says:

    re J park v J World, it is a bit of an interesting litmus test in terms of film writing and how far the bar has fallen; while i certainly wouldn’t argue the crichton/keopp screenplay is some paragon of writing excellence it is a well-constructed, deftly woven propulsive narrative with fully realised protag characters in ellie and allan, underpinned by some basic exploration of scientific and philosophical themes while delivering the thrills and scares. (i don’t remember J P being widely lambasted for poor character development when it came out, i think that’s overstating it a bit – scanning some reviews on metacritic this is a factor in some of the more negative reviews but not a widespread thing)

    but man critics/reviewers certainly have become wishy-washy, i’ve noticed quite a few J World reviews expound on the serious problems with the movie and conclude how it really just isn’t good at the end of the day, and then give it 3 stars – i mean wtf is that all about, have some guts, get real and do your job, the idiocracy is upon us.

    “I would have been happier if Chris Pratt and Jake Johnson had ended up together: that’s a dream match!”

    haha movieman, now at least that would have been something interesting! having said that i found owen a smug, insufferable prick and wanted him to die (and while pratt seems a really lovely guy IRL and he can be quite amusing in the right role – GOTG right in his range – when he’s trying to be ‘serious’ his acting skills are about nil. the mass American orgasm for him as a ‘movie star’ now is kind of hilarious, you sure can pick ’em with that low bar.)

    hallick said: “I’m even more perplexed that Sayles never found a home on a cable channel where he could really dig into one of his communities of characters with a story that didn’t have to be tied up in a couple of hours. His film career has been languishing in the realms of the marginal since 1999 when “Limbo” came out. I wonder if he just doesn’t like the idea of working on the same thing year-in, year-out.”

    yeah Sayles is such an enigma wrapped in a mystery, for all his talent as a film-maker he just seems to follow some random internal whim that appears to have no interest in commercial prospects whatsoever. i totally applaud him for this but at the same time it’s also frustrating as hell because i’d like to see more of his work ‘out there’ in the consciousness but he’s just off marching to his own drummer.

  84. palmtree says:

    Seriously, Leah? Metacritic is rife with comments on the bad characterizations in Jurassic Park, ESPECIALLY from the positive reviews. And this is without having access to the full reviews, just the pull quotes. Here are a sample, in case you accuse me of “overstating.”

    Roger Ebert: “the movie is lacking other qualities that it needs even more, such as … strong human story values.”

    James Berardinelli, Reelviews: “The biggest weakness of the novel is characterization, and the same flaw is fully evident in the screen adaptation.”

    Variety: “Spielberg’s scary and horrific thriller may be one-dimensional and even clunky in story and characterization,”

    Mike Clark, USA Today: “Spielberg’s must-see is so wondrous at depicting things that go crunch in the night that its human characterizations and pokey exposition seem astonishingly halfhearted…”

    Kenneth Turan, LA Times: “All the imagination and effort (including 18 months of pre-production) that went into making the dinosaurs state-of-the-art exciting apparently left no time to make the people similarly believable or involving.”

  85. palmtree says:

    And I don’t necessarily disagree. I’m just wondering if things have gotten so bad now that the old bad now looks pretty good…I’ve definitely noticed that in the world of songwriting. Each year fewer and fewer chords seem to be used in new songs. Songs that I used to accuse of having a lack of interesting chord progressions now seem downright complex compared to the new crop.

  86. Bulldog68 says:

    Those reviews pretty much are mirrors of JW reviews Palmtree. Admittedly, and I think almost universally, the JP characters are more strongly drawn and more entertaining to listen to. I think Goldblum’s line “but your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could that they didn’t stop to think if they should” has been echoed by many other movies.

    Even the kids had more character.

    What i missed was Spielberg’s sense of using the environment as another layer in the film. The use of the car in the tree, and the kitchen scene in JP. The use of the trailer suspended over the cliff in JP2, were as suspenseful as thrilling whether the character will outrun or outdrive the dinosaur.

    Of all the stuff that JW attempted to mimic, there was not really one scene that took it’s time and attempted some suspense. They missed the boat on some very unique scenes with that underwater dinosaur. If you have something new, use it.

    All in all, and I understand Leah’s frustration, JW falls into the category of flawed movies that I liked. Like Man of Steel. I’m hoping that the next one will not be more of the dinosaurs escaped their boundaries scenario, but hopefully takes it in a new direction.

  87. cadavra says:

    Sayles makes his own movies on the fringes so he can have complete artistic control. Who could blame him?

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