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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Post-Memorial Klady

Weekend Estimates 2015-05-31 at 10.32.22 AM

If the San Andreas estimates is accurate, that’s a really nice hold over the weekend for a big, dumb action movie. It might even come close to catching up with 2012 domestically by the end of next week, which held a bit less well Friday-to- weekend back in 2009.

Decent third weekend hold for Pitch Perfect 2. $175m domestic seems to be where it is headed. It’s at double worldwide from the first film, already past double domestically, and heading towards double internationally.

For those pushing the “all there are anymore are dumb mega-movies” agenda, a look at the year to date might force serious reconsideration. A month into “summer” and there are 18 $100m+ worldwide grossers. Only seven cost $100m or more, one being Jupiter Ascending, which was pushed into 2015 after being slated for last year.

There is, roughly, an $800 million window between the #2 film worldwide (Avengers 2, at $1.3b and counting) and #3 (Fifty Shades of Grey, with $570 million). The two mega-hits (A2 and Furious 7) each represent $350m+ investments with P&A included and are, in actual dollars, the most profitable films of the year to day by a distance. After that, in the big budget range, are the live-action Cinderella, the animated Home, Insurgent, Mad Max: Fury Road, and the aforementioned Jupiter. Only the last title appears destined to lose money. None of the smaller-grossing five will make a lot of profit, Cinderella being the most profitable.

Films budgeted under $100 million are lower risk and more consistently rewarding. The most profitable will be 50 Shades, followed by Kingsman, Taken 3, Pitch 2, Paddington, Spongebob, Focus, Get Hard, and Paul Blart 2. The top half of this list will be more profitable than any of the bigger budget films after Avengers 2. Seventh Son will lose money and Chappie is right there on the edge too.

There are four studio movies (including Dependents, except SPC) that have grossed between $50m and $99m worldwide, three of four of which will clearly be profitable.

There are 10 studio movies that have grossed between $10 million and $49 million, most of which are around breakeven. The outstanding loser in the group is Blackhat, which cost over $70 million and has grossed $18m, which isn’t enough to cover even a conservative advertising outlay. The only real moneymaker is Unfriended, which claims a production cost of only $1 million.

Anyway… point is… studios are still diverse and there are analyses of all of these revenue situations constantly. But the “movies so big we gotta wear shades” thinking is really about media focus more than the actual films rolled out by the studios.

Aloha blow ha.

Another weekend with no indie/limited/exclusive release cracking $10k per-screen.

Happy to see Ex Machina heading to $25 million domestic. Amazed to see that Woman in Gold is already so far past it, with $31m domestic.

20 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Post-Memorial Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    And yet, studios seem less willing to invest in as many titles. That’s what I think many are getting at…it’s become more fashionable to swing for the fences on a handful of flicks like Paramount and then Disney have done rather than lay out the case for a broad slate. Everything feels like a tentpole, a micro-budgeter or a dump. The rare remaining breakouts like MCFARLAND and ADALINE have become mythic beasts.

    There have only been five movies to open in the $20 million-$35 million range this year (a pair of Kevin Hart comedies, Blart, Tomorrowland and Poltergeist). Last year through May there were 8, in 2013 there were 16, 17 in 2012….hell go back to 2005 and there were 14. 2015 has the lowest number, by a wide margin since at least then. Maybe it’s just a two year blip, but it seems more and more like the Disney/Paramount model has taken hold.

    The era of the $20 million opener (Focus, Hot Pursuit, Aloha, Chappie, Eastwood/Sparks and one other horror feel like they should have gotten there. Or at least come close) feels over for better or worse.

  2. David Poland says:

    i am told that some people are having a hard time commenting. Please e-mail me at poland@movieictynews.com if you are having trouble. Thanks.

  3. JS Partisan says:

    Ethan, the Summer is long, and those movies show up in August now. August is the month of the middle level earner, so get ready for a lot of 20 million dollar openings that second weekend of August!

    Also, the new guy running Paramount, wants to make more movies. Disney, even if most of their upcoming slate are sequels, are putting a shit load of product out from 2016 to 2019. They have the IP to do it, so it’s not like that model is sustainable for Warners, and really not sustainable for Universal.

  4. EtGuild2 says:

    I’ll believe it when I see it. Aside from “Ricki” and “FF” it looks like a trainwreck this year though I’m holding out faint hope for “Straight Outta Compton” and “American Ultra.”

    Universal may be headed towards the most profitable year for any studio in modern history thanks to franchise product this year (Furious, Fifty Shades, Pitch Perfect, Minions, Jurassic World, Ted) with buzz about Furious 8/Hobbs spinoff, PP3, Blumhouse re-treads/sequels, Ride Along 2/endless generic Hart, Neighbors 2, The Huntsman, Warcraft and another attempt at an “Avengers style” Monsters universe, a Mummy reboot, and Kong reboot, Pac Rim 2, Despicable Me 3, a Grinch reboot…all in the next 2 and a half years.

    So far they have a good amount of original product in the pipeline and actually promote it most of the time, but it’s distressing.To be fair the sudden inability to open more than 2 or 3 horror movies a year anymore, the inability to open any urban movie without Kevin Hart, Lionsgate upending its entire business model, and the inability of Sony to actually release movies isn’t helping get a broader number of titles more attention.

  5. movieman says:

    August’s Guy Ritchie movie looks like it might be fun: I got a “Kingsman” vibe from the new trailer.
    Of course, “Kingsman” was itself echt Ritchie, no?

  6. Tracker Backer says:

    “August’s Guy Ritchie movie looks like it might be fun: I got a “Kingsman” vibe from the new trailer.”

    Seriously? Didn’t remind me of Kingsman at all. Feels completely stale.

  7. eric says:

    How is August going to be a trainwreck. Besides the movies mentioned Mission Impossible:Rogue Nation comes out on July 31 which means 90% of it’s business will be in August. The Man From Uncle comes out on the 14th. Oh that’s right, All of america is going to watch Going Clear and refuse to see MI and who wants to see a 60’s set spy movie with Superman and the Lone Ranger. Did I get the counterarguments correct?

  8. Tracker Backer says:

    I would be willing to bet a significant amount of money that no more than 10% of people on the street could name either of the actors starring in Man from UNCLE. They mean absolutely nothing to the average person outside of their roles in Man of Steel or Lone Ranger (and, really, no one cared about them as actors in those roles, either).

  9. btx says:

    August doesn’t look great this year mainly because there are no big movies. Last year we had Guardians Of The Galaxy and Ninja Turtles. 50 Shades of Grey was also scheduled for an August release last year before being moved to February. This year the only comparative movie is Fantastic Four and there is a lot of negative buzz surrounding it. The good news is that it leaves some breathing room for mid-level grossers. Ricki and the Flash, Straight Outta Compton, The Man from UNCLE, Sinister 2 and American Ultra are all movies that can potentially open above $20 million. Of course, all of them can bomb if they fail to hit the right note.

  10. eric says:

    Yeah so what. A majority of people probably can’t tell you which Chris is playing Thor and which is playing Captain America. That does not affect whether they are going to see the movie or not. They are either interested or not based on how they think the movie looks.

  11. palmtree says:

    Honestly, when you start to flip through celebrity gossip magazines (don’t ask), you realize that people who read this (aka normal everyday people) are aware of these actors in a more intimate way than even watching their films would provide. Similarly, I never watch reality TV, but somehow I do end up with a working knowledge of people on those shows from the way their names are casually thrown around. Superhero lead actors are known, but just not necessarily from the movies.

  12. Well says:

    You acted like CINDERELLA was a dissapointment when it cost a little under 80 million. That movie is a perfect example of where we should be heading.

  13. movieman says:

    Put it this way, Tracker.

    I have more confidence in Guy Ritchie delivering fun than the dude who made “Down With Love.”

  14. Delgado says:

    I guess the disappointing result for HEAVEN KNOWS WHAT doesn’t bode well for the performance of TANGERINE in July. I’m surprised it wasn’t released on VOD day-and-date. I guess we’d have to go back to the last weekend of February 1987, when WORKING GIRLS was released, to get an idea of how this type of movie did in a pre-VOD era.

  15. Tracker Backer says:

    eric: “Yeah so what. A majority of people probably can’t tell you which Chris is playing Thor and which is playing Captain America. That does not affect whether they are going to see the movie or not. They are either interested or not based on how they think the movie looks.”

    Now I’m confused. That’s exactly the point that I was making, and exactly the opposite of what you said in your original post that I was replying to. You seemed to be implying that the fact that “Superman and the Lone Ranger” were in Man from UNCLE made it more appealing to people.

  16. eric says:

    Tracker Backer: There is nothing to argue about then. You read to much into what I said. I was just speaking as what a possible average casual moviegoer that might be a little informed when they see the MFU trailer. Heck there are a lot who probably just remember they have seen these guys in something at some point. There are far more that probably know Henry Cavill then Arnie Hammer because Man Of Steel was a hit, Lone Ranger not so much

  17. Hallick says:

    It’s kind of amazing that Bradley Cooper’s first picture on the heels of “American Sniper” would make less than $10 million. Worse movies have done a lot better than this.

  18. Hallick says:

    “…and who wants to see a 60’s set spy movie with Superman and the Lone Ranger.”

    Show of hands anybody?

  19. Pete B. says:

    Toss in the Ava the android from Ex Machina and my butt is in a seat.

  20. Hallick says:

    “Toss in the Ava the android from Ex Machina and my butt is in a seat.”

    That’s a bigger sell than Superman and Lone Ranger somehow.

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