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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Klady 200

Weekend Estimates 2015-01-25 at 10.26.51 AM

So our American Sniper estimate is a little behind the studio estimate. As it turned out last week, everyone’s estimates were low. We’ll see what happened today tomorrow. Really, keep in mind that the whole 10 days part of this is blurred by the 3-week 4-screen roll-out that brought in $3.4 million. Still… huge numbers, a real cultural discussion (aka, raging screaming match) is going on because of the film, and all just in time to make the Academy Awards a culture war.

By the way, the notion that Sniper will pass The Passion of The Christ is unlikely, if only because of Easter. Passion got a big bump from the holiday, going up 44% on Easter weekend, which was Weekend 7. Anyway… Sniper is up over Passion for the first 10 wide days by about $20 million. But this is 2014 and that was 2004. The studios have changed viewing patterns enough that this will likely turn in a week or two. But… we shall see. The other front in this weird competition is international, where Sniper could outdo Passion’s $242 million if the controversy plays worldwide. There are certainly places that will end up not playing it or playing it in the smallest way possible. But maybe not. Sniper has already outgrossed Zero Dark Thirty overseas and its barely started its international release. ZD30 was positioned by media as American dancing on bin Laden’s grave. American Sniper? Depends who you ask. Waiting to see if we get travel advisories from the US government because of Sniper inciting violence against Americans, especially in the non-Israel Middle East.

The Boy Next Door is a mediocre number… but the cost on the picture is reported to be $4 million. The eventual domestic will be around $40 million. Another $10m-$20 m overseas. And what is the marketing cost? There is your ballgame. If it’s under $30m, this will be a profitable movie. If it is more, it will be about decimal points.

Strange Magic‘s release is a cost of doing business for Disney and they pretty much treated it as such. Considering that, $5.5m isn’t so bad. But it’s a writedown against the profits from Star Wars Universe.

Mortdecai is a sad moment for Mr. Depp and those of us who so enjoy his work. Seriously… make a real movie, man.

And Cake ate it too.

As noted yesterday, there is movement in the ranks of the 8 Best Picture nominees this weekend, with The Imitation Game moving into the #2 spot and Selma moving into the #4 spot. The relevance of box office has changed dramatically since the expansion to “as many as” 10 Best Picture slots… to not being a clear indicator of anything. But still interesting. The slotting today will likely be the slotting through the awards presentation.

oscar nominees 2015-01-25 at 11.12.14 AM

15 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady 200”

  1. Bulldog68 says:

    “Mortdecai is a sad moment for Mr. Depp and those of us who so enjoy his work. Seriously‚Ķ make a real movie, man.”

    Ditto that.

    Note to JD: You’re a good actor. Just to mix things up a little, do a good solid drama with no quirkiness and no outlandish make up needed.

    Say what you will about RDJ, but he’s at least doing stuff like The Judge to try to keep things versatile. Sure the outcome may be less thatn stellar, but I’ll take The Judge on my resume any day over JD’s last few movies.

  2. amblinman says:

    Unfortunately I think Depp is hell bent on following Nic Cage’s career trajectory. Just with better hair.

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    $242 million overseas would be shocking. It only did $21 million during the course of the last week, for a $47 million cume and is out in quite a few major territories. $150 million would be great.

    Of course, Europe is a big question mark right now. It’s been boffo in Italy, but only okay in the UK.

    Btw I’m assuming Johhny Depp isn’t going to choose over-the-top mugging in his portrayal of Whitney Bulger, because it would be enormously disrespectful to his victims. On the other hand, I’m worried he might at this point…

  4. YancySkancy says:

    Yeah, can’t believe people are forgetting the Whitey Bulger film. Not sure what to expect from the thriller London Fields.

  5. Vaus says:

    Re Depp Cage comparison.
    Nic Cage at least had the excuse that he had debts and taxes and so needed to take any job that paid. Depp has no such excuse (unless his financial decisions have been as poor as his movie decisions). I don’t expect Depp to start making decisions based on what would be good for his career or box office so those around him need to stop enabling him. Producers and studios should limit their investments and his agents and directors should just say no when his ideas go to far.

  6. movieman says:

    At this point, “Finding Neverland” seems like 1974 rather than 2004.

  7. YancySkancy says:

    I dunno, I’m not too hard on Depp. Early on, he showed an affinity for offbeat stuff, and he has run with it. As a performer, it’s clear he’s more comfortable with that type of role. Once it became super-lucrative as well, it made it easier to justify those choices. After the success of PIRATES in particular, I think it’s safe to say that if he had wanted to play less conventional characters he could have (I didn’t see PUBLIC ENEMIES — did he play Dillinger fairly straight?). I’m sure MORTDECAI is as bad as it looks (oof, that trailer), but I’d rather Depp use his clout to perpetrate eccentric crap than see him give one of his stiff “normal” performances in some safe drama or thriller, even if it ends up killing his box office clout. Then again, I liked THE LONE RANGER, so grain of salt, ya’ll.

  8. actionman says:

    the public’s ignoring of Blackhat is tragic

  9. dinovelvet says:

    I agree, actionman. Blackhat will get a reappraisal somewhere down the line.

  10. Casey says:

    Blackhat just isn’t very good on any level–and I say that as one of the biggest Mann fans around. I highly doubt its reputation will get any better in the years ahead; if anything, it’ll look even more simplistic and dated a few years from now.

    Regarding Mortdecai, let’s not blame others for this trainwreck. Depp and his sister were producers on the movie, and the driving forces behind it, as far as I’ve heard.

  11. dinovelvet says:

    This makes three major flops in 2 weeks. According to boxofficemojo, Strange Magic is the 7th worst opening weekend for a film on 3000+ screens, and Blackhat and Mordecai occupy positions 11 and 17 on the rankings of worst opening weekend for a film on 2500+ screens. You’re up next, THE LOFT! (Though at 1800 screens it’s not playing in the big leagues).

  12. Glamourboy says:

    We are in the January dumping grounds…you’re gonna see a bunch of flops coming your way each week. Nothing unusual about that. It’s just January.

  13. EtGuild2 says:

    This seems a bit worse than usual. I have no idea what the budget is on “Seventh Son,” but even if it makes it to $125 million overseas, one would expect it to be a big money loser. “Jupiter Ascending” practically screams disaster.

    Hollywood has avoided these types of big eight-figure write-offs in the last few years…at least in this number.

  14. dinovelvet says:

    Yeah there are always January flops, but these seem more high profile than the usual Legend of Hercules/I Frankenstein type stuff; they all have a major name attached to them (Mann/Lucas/Depp) and all seemed like they had major potential at some point (unlike a Renny Harlin Hercules starring Kellan Lutz).

  15. Ryan says:

    I second Casey as not understanding the love around here for “Blackhat”, which had some great visuals, but seemed to really lack any sort of coherent plot. And the beginning shot of the movie that filed the computer wires around for what seemed like an endless amount of time felt very 90s and dated.
    The shootouts were some decent Mann action scenes, but there wasn’t much else to hold it together. And Mann may be a draw for cinephiles, but Hemsworth, not so much outside Marvel and The Huntsman. Ron Howard is a more well known commodity than Mann, and he couldn’t get Hemsworth anywhere with Rush.

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