Gurus o’ Gold: One Last Guess Before Nominations

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Rank Last Chart Best Picture AdamsEllwoodGrayHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 1 Boyhood
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 14 140
2 2 Birdman
2 4 2 5 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 4 14 116
3 3 The Imitation Game
3 2 4 2 4 3 4 4 2 4 3 3 5 3 14 108
4 6 The Grand Budapest Hotel
4 5 5 3 2 6 5 2 6 5 4 4 4 2 14 97
5 4 Selma
5 3 2 10 6 4 3 8 5 3 10 6 6 5 14 78
6 5 The Theory of Everything
6 6 6 5 5 7 5 4 6 5 5 3 6 13 74
7 7 Whiplash
8 7 8 9 7 7 9 6 7 7 9 7 9 7 14 47
8 9 American Sniper
10 9 7 4 9 8 6 7 8 9 8 10 12 37
9 8 Gone Girl
9 8 8 8 8 6 8 7 8 9 29
10 Nightcrawler
7 8 7 10 10 9 9 7 10 9 10 24
10 Foxcatcher
9 10 10 9 10 10 10 7 10 9 14
Rank Last Chart Best Actor AdamsEllwoodGrayHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 1 Michael Keaton
Birdman
1 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 14 78
2 2 Eddie Redmayne
The Theory of Everything
2 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 1 14 75
3 3 Benedict Cumberbatch
The Imitation Game
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 3 2 4 3 14 53
4 4 David Oyelowo
Selma
4 4 6 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 3 4 12 35
5 Jake Gyllenhaal
Nightcrawler
5 5 5 4 5 5 6 4 5 3 5 4 5 5 14 32
5 Steve Carell
Foxcatcher
4 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 9 13
Bradley Cooper
American Sniper
6 5 6 6 6 5 6
Ralph Fiennes
The Grand Budapest Hotel
6 6 2 2
Rank Last Chart Best Actress AdamsEllwoodGrayHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 1 Julianne Moore
Still Alice
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 14 84
2 2 Reese Witherspoon
Wild
2 2 2 4 2 2 2 5 4 5 4 2 2 2 14 58
3 4 Rosamund Pike
Gone Girl
5 3 4 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 4 5 4 14 50
4 3 Felicity Jones
The Theory of Everything
4 4 3 5 3 3 5 2 3 3 5 3 3 3 14 49
5 5 Jennifer Aniston
Cake
5 5 2 6 5 4 6 5 4 3 6 4 5 13 31
Amy Adams
Big Eyes
3 6 6 5 6 6 4 6 6 6 5 11 18
Marion Cotillard
One Day, Two Nights
6 6 6 3 3
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actor AdamsEllwoodGrayHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 1 J. K. Simmons
Whiplash
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 14 84
2 2 Edward Norton
Birdman
4 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 14 66
3 3 Ethan Hawke
Boyhood
2 3 4 4 2 3 3 3 2 3 5 4 3 3 14 54
4 4 Mark Ruffalo
Foxcatcher
3 4 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 4 14 44
5 5 Robert Duvall
The Judge
5 5 5 3 5 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 13 29
Josh Brolin
Inherent Vice
6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 11 13
Channing Tatum
Foxcatcher
6 6 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Steve Carell
Foxcatcher
6 1 1
Adrien Brody
The Grand Budapest Hotel
6 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actress AdamsEllwoodGrayHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 1 Patricia Arquette
Boyhood
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 14 84
2 2 Emma Stone
Birdman
3 2 5 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 2 2 14 61
3 3 Keira Knightley
The Imitation Game
3 2 3 3 5 2 3 3 3 2 3 4 3 13 52
4 4 Meryl Streep
Into The Woods
2 4 3 4 4 2 6 4 4 4 2 3 4 13 45
5 5 Jessica Chastain
A Most Violent Year
6 4 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 13 27
Laura Dern
Wild
4 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 10
Rene Russo
Nightcrawler
5 5 6 5 6 6 6 9
Vanessa Redgrave
Foxcatcher
5 5 2 4
One Vote Wonders
Tilda Swinton
Snowpiercer
6 1 1
Naomi Watts
St Vincent
6 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Director AdamsEllwoodGrayHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 1 Richard Linklater
Boyhood
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 14 83
2 2 Alejandro G. Inarritu
Birdman
3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 14 69
3 4 Wes Anderson
The Grand Budapest Hotel
4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 5 3 3 3 4 3 14 48
4 3 Ava Duvernay
Selma
1 5 3 3 3 4 6 4 5 5 3 5 12 37
5 5 David Fincher
Gone Girl
6 4 5 5 6 4 6 6 4 9 17
Morten Tyldum
The Imitation Game
6 6 5 3 4 5 6 7 14
Clint Eastwood
American Sniper
6 6 5 5 5 4 6 11
Damian Chazelle
Whiplash
5 3 6 6 6 6 6 10
Bennett Miller
Foxcatcher
5 4 2 5
Rank Last Chart Best Original Screenplay AdamsEllwoodGrayHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 2 Birdman
3 1 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 14 73
2 1 Boyhood
1 3 1 3 3 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 3 14 71
3 3 The Grand Budapest Hotel
2 2 3 2 2 2 1 3 3 3 2 3 3 1 14 66
4 t5 NIghtcrawler
5 4 4 4 5 4 4 6 4 4 4 4 6 4 14 36
5 Foxcatcher
6 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 5 6 6 5 5 5 14 24
t5 Selma
4 6 4 6 6 5 4 6 8 15
A Most Violent Year
5 6 5 5 4 7
One Vote Wonders
The LEGO Movie
6 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Adapted Screenplay AdamsEllwoodGrayHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 2 The Imitation Game
1 3 2 2 3 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 14 74
2 1 Gone Girl
4 1 3 1 2 2 1 3 1 1 4 1 2 13 65
3 3 The Theory of Everything
3 2 1 5 4 6 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 13 52
4 Whiplash
2 5 6 3 5 3 5 3 4 4 5 3 4 4 14 42
5 4 Wild
5 6 4 1 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 11 28
Amercan Sniper
6 4 5 4 6 3 5 6 6 9 18
5 Inherent Vice
6 4 4 6 5 6 6 11
Unbroken
6 6 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Big Eyes
6 1 1

Pre-Venice/Telluride/Toronto Best Picture Field
Post-Venice/Telluride/Toronto Best Picture Field
After New York…
Just Before Selma & American Sniper
Just After Selma & American Sniper
Gurus o’ Gold: A Week From Thanksgiving, aka Screener Time
Thanksgiving Week
The Rise of Selma
Gurus o’ Gold-n-Globes)
The Top 8 Categories Heading Into The Holiday Break
Academy Members, Please Watch…
Back From The Holidays, Polls Close Thursday

14 Responses to “Gurus o’ Gold: One Last Guess Before Nominations”

  1. Dandi says:

    Wow. It’s going to be so fun seeing how wrong the collective group of you all are gonna be come Thursday.

    Some of these predictions DO NOT MAKE SENSE AT ALL.
    You are basically saying American Sniper will only get a Best Picture nomination, without Screenplay, Director or Actor? When has that ever happened?

    How long have some of you been following the Oscars?

    So glad i’m the first to tell y’all:

    1. Clint Eastwood WILL get the Best Director nomination.
    2. Bradley Cooper WILL get the Best Actor nomination.
    3. American Sniper WILL get the Best Adapted Screenplay nomination.

    See y’all Thursday!

  2. K. Bowen says:

    Sticking with Selma. Well, we’ll see.

  3. Helen says:

    Marion Cotillard should be nominated because she’s amazing in Two Days, One Night.

  4. Danny says:

    Dandi, how long have you been following the Oscars, and how these predictions work?

    Regardless of what will actually happen Thursday, it makes perfect sense to assume: if the collective is predicting American Sniper to be in the #8 slot for Best Picture, that it is much less likely than many other movies to get Director. And the #6 rank in the Actor and Ad. Screenplay categories also makes logical sense if you look at the other contenders and where they are ranked overall.

    You can argue that maybe American Sniper should be ranked higher, but your argument: “You are basically saying American Sniper will only get a Best Picture nomination, without Screenplay, Director or Actor? When has that ever happened?” completely disregards the movie’s #8 collective ranking. And so it is you who doesn’t make any sense.

    Basically the Gurus are saying American Sniper is on the bubble when it comes to major nominations (Picture, Director, Actor, screenplay). It could go either way, and if it gets in, it’ll be only just. I find that assessment a lot more in keeping with the season so far than your absolute certainties.

  5. Daniella Isaacs says:

    What Danny says. Also, THE BLIND SIDE and ZERO DARK THIRTY were nominated for Best Picture without Best Actor, Director, or Screenplay nominations. Okay, you say, but they were nominated for Best Actress. Fair enough. How about EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE and WAR HORSE? Best Picture nominees. No other major categories. 2012. I could very well see that happening with AMERICAN SNIPER. See ya Thursday!

  6. Pj says:

    I love the desperately holding on to Selma. And yes, Sniper has been underestimated by experts since AFI. It’s been killing guilds while Selma is a no show. And before you talk screeners, how does a major studio not getting screeners out to the most important guilds along the way give you any confidence at Oscar?

  7. Daniella Isaacs says:

    I actually agree that SELMA might be over-rated at this point. Many of the liberals in the Academy are going to be LBJ liberals. Still, I see the major beneficiary of that drop being GRAND BUDAPEST, which is not to say SNIPER might, emphasis on might, not squeeze in. People do love Eastwood.

  8. Vince says:

    Sorry, i have to go with Dandi on this one.

    It is no secret critics have this love affair with Boyhood, that they fail to acknowledge any other film garnering similar support.

    Danny, on the bubble for a nomination is not a nomination. What these critics are actually saying is, AMPAS voters (and the different Guilds) will jot down American Sniper for Best Picture and show absolutely no support for it in other categories.

    They (Critics) might have slaughtered Eastwood and Co with reviews, but the Guilds have shown American Sniper is coming. PGA, WGA, ACE EDDIE, ADG, CAS, and today Clint Eastwood will pick up yet another DGA nomination.

    American Sniper is gonna over-perform on Thursday. I can see it getting 7 nominations at the least.

    And critics of Guru O Gold will be singing how “they didn’t see it coming”. Because it was on the bubble for a nomination, yet not nominate worthy.

    SEE YOU ALL THURSDAY. Bring your Clint Eastwood hater caps along. Because it will be hectic.

  9. Daniella Isaacs says:

    Do people actually admit they were wrong once the nominees are announced? I doubt it. I do think I’m going to go to a friend’s Facebook page the day after BOYHOOD’s likely win in February and remind him that he said, on my Facebook page back in July, that “BOYHOOD will be long forgotten by Oscar night” last summer. I have a feeling he’ll deny ever having said that. (Should I post a frame grab?)

    By the way, I didn’t really love BOYHOOD, and often love Eastwood. (I haven’t seen SNIPER yet.) Why is it I get the feeling I’m one of the few people here guessing what WILL happen, not what I WANT TO happen? 😉

  10. Scott says:

    I don’t follow these boards throughout the year and only pay attention come Oscar time. My gut before even looking at this board and others with predictions was American Sniper would receive a lot of nominations. So, I was surprised when most experts had it so far down the list.

  11. Pj says:

    But the thing is, Grand Budapest is already in. It’s been locked and loaded a loooooooong time ago. It’ll most likely lead Oscars in Noms if BAFTA is any indication. Selma’s decline doesn’t effect of in anyway. The Sniper vs Selma thing is more along the 5th spot in Director and Actor. And maybe it’s just me, but I’d predict the one that’s hitting the guilds and killing the box office and not the one embroiled in countless controversies(don’t forget the one about writing credit), disappointing box office, and a near guild shut out.
    ETA: and Eastwood hits DGA.

  12. Daniella Isaacs says:

    Not too long ago, BUDAPEST was listed as a likely BP and screenplay nominee. Now, suddenly its director is routinely listed as a shoe in. That’s a real change. It’s also now more likely, I think, to pick up a lot of “below the line” nods: Costumes, Makeup, Music. I guess Art Direction was always kind of a given. Ralph Fiennes is still a bit of a long shot, but better situated than Bradley Cooper.

  13. Sam says:

    I don’t understand the fuss over the American Sniper rankings in these charts. It is perfectly reasonable to project that American Sniper might wind up #8 on Best Picture ballots, #8 on Best Director ballots, #8 on Best Actor ballots, and #8 on Best Screenplay ballots.

    If that winds up being true, guess what? American Sniper gets a Best Picture nomination, which recognizes more nominees, and none of the others. This is what the Guru charts are projecting.

    That guess may turn out to be wrong. But it is not an unreasonable guess.

  14. Dandi says:

    And there you have it. 6 nominatons. Not a #8 ranking. SIX BLOODY NOMINATIONS.
    People think they are so clever.