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By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Yeah, He Stayed Klady

friday estimates 2014-08-23 at 8.53.13 AM

Welcome to the dregs of August. And even so, a $16m-plus opening for Chloë Grace Moretz is pretty good. It ain’t The Fault In Our Stars, but then again, Chloë doesn’t have a YA franchise she is fronting, nor is this based on material that had such a strong position in the culture. It is a better opening than Endless Love. And it’s a 5% improvement (on the day) over the other film in which Ms. Moretz had an above-the-title role, Carrie.

Meanwhile, Sin City 2 turns out to have box office to be killed by. Opening day is a massive 78% off the original film, which is a fairly good sign that the Geek Middle Class bailed on this one. I suspect that the vast majority of the weekend audience for the film will be Hard Core Geek. And as with most cases of that happening, look for a steep fall off on the film in weekend two, after having squeezed all the blood out of that group. I don’t see it reaching $20 million domestically. The first film had a better number overseas than here, so it is possible that international will pull the fat out of the fire for Weinstein.

Beating SC2 was When The Game Stands Tall, a half-ass pre-Rothman Tri-Star release, with an inspirational football coach played by former Jesus, Jim Caviezel. Is the crown for the film of faith? Could be. There was apparently a reach-out to that community. I am not a believer in chart placement as an issue, but the irony of turning the other cheek beating out showing every possible cheek is amusing.

Holds are looking quite good in this weekend of pretty soft, niche releases. Guardians 31%, Fri-to-Fri. Turtles, 44%. Cops, 44%. Hundred Foot Journey, 23%. The films that got smushed (Giver, Expendables, Storm… 57%, 68%, 54%) were all actioners with unhappy critical response and, apparently, word of mouth.

Guardians will become the #1 domestic film of the summer today and could be #1 domestic for the year as soon as next weekend. Ironically, international is its weak point. It’s unlikely that the film will crack the Top 5 for the year-to-date worldwide, even with some big markets yet to open. It would need to do $200m internationally, doubling its current figure, to get to $700 million worldwide and $100 million is a lot more likely. No shame in that. Iron Man also took time to get hold internationally, then finally blew up to over $800 million overseas alone for #3.

Love Is Strange is the indie opening winner of the week, looking to average better than $20k per on 5 screens. All the other openers will be in four-digit per-screens.

10 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Yeah, He Stayed Klady”

  1. Joe Leydon says:

    I realize that my memory may not be what it used to be. But when the first Sin City opened — wasn’t it repeatedly proclaimed “the future of movies” by some smug little jackass who used to post here?

  2. Maniac Cop says:

    A big reason SIN CITY performed so dismally is that it’s only playing (at least from what I can tell) in 3D. Nobody’s going to pay $15 for a movie they’re on the fence about seeing in the first place.

  3. I have the feeling that “Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part I” will be the domestic box office champion of 2014.

  4. David Poland says:

    The funny thing, Joe, is that even though Sin City 2 is a low example of the form, the unreal, not terribly coherent, action-is-all-that-matters aesthetic is pretty rampant these days.

  5. JS Partisan says:

    I’m going to go with the sin city number, being a repudiation of Frank Miller. That’s what I am going with.

  6. Pete B. says:

    The wife & I were the only ones in the theater for the first 3D showing of SC: ADTKF today. Not a good sign.

    All I can say is thank Heaven for Eva Green!

  7. EtGuild2 says:

    I was with you until I remembered that international grosses are your personal kryptonite. The truth is, no one, studio included, has any real idea how GUARDIANS is going to play in China and Japan, so making any kind of projection is an exercise in futility and stupidity.

  8. brack says:

    To top it off, it appears Frank Miller is dying or at the very least extremely ill.

  9. spassky says:

    As someone who lives in China, a lot of young people I’ve talked to are pretty psyched for GoTG (and of course, all expats are pretty up on it). Of course, totally anecdotal, so we’ll see.

  10. Christian says:

    Did “The Giver” get “smushed” if its weekend was off 45% – the same as the “quite good” Friday-to-Friday drop of “Turtles” and “Cops”? I realize it’s 45% off a much smaller number, but 45% seems like a respectable, if not great, hold.

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