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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Kladeficent


The big Maleficent question is, who is going to this movie on Saturday… the same crowd as Friday or The Kids? Lego Movie opened to $69m after a $17m Friday because the families showed up in force on Saturday. If that held similarly true for Maleficent, the Mal could get close to this summer’s high standard, the $90m opening. If that is not the case and families with kids under 15 are afraid of the film, the opening will be more in the $65 range. It’s really that broad a potential range. And as I am writing this from Seattle, Disney is no doubt checking matinee numbers from the east coast, hoping to see an uptick. This is one of those rare cases in which mid-Saturday reporting could actually be of value.

67.9%, 77.1%, and 71.5%. That’s how much Cap 2, The ‘zilla, and ASM2 were off on their 2nd Fridays. X-Men is off an estimated 68%. So what does it mean? Not a lot. This is a pretty 2nd Friday standard drop, as you can see. Benefiting from the holiday weekend last weekend, X should end the weekend near $160m after two, which would make it the best 10-day number of the year so far. Still, the biggest battle remains overseas.

If I were going to peg Die Western to another opening, it would be The Internship from last summer, which opened to a $6.5m Friday and ended up with $45m domestic.

Amazing Spider-Man 2 should slog its way to $200m domestic while Godzilla may not quite get there. Like all the other big films so far this summer, the real story is the rest of the world.

The Other Woman hit a kinda shocking $80m, proving that women will go see crap just like men.

And this weekend, Neighbors will pass the point of doubling any previous Nicholas Stoller movie and is the #2 all-time live action Seth Rogen movie, behind only Knocked Up. Ann Hornaday may demand that the National Guard go Code Red.

11 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Kladeficent”

  1. BoulderKid says:

    I looked at Deadline’s early write up this morning and they were practically eulogizing X-Men because of its Friday to Friday drop. Thanks Dave for showing the forest from the trees with the Cap, Godzilla, and Spiderman 2 comparison. X Men is fine here in the states. It’s going to get its 200m and change in the U.S. which is all it needs for a domestic base before the overseas numbers come in. DOFP isn’t going to be profitable in the way The Avengers was-a film that put the studio firmly in the black for the year on its own by covering any flops or underperformers on the slate, but individually I’m sure Fox is more than fine with its run thus far.

  2. Bulldog68 says:

    Remember when a $90M opening weekend was a guaranteed $200m? Remember when good worth of mouth was guaranteed legs at the box office? Apparently not anymore. We’ve had thee $90M openers recently, and all of them will be cross the $200m mark, including two crowd pleasers in Godzilla and X-Men.

    X-Men has always been a quick kill at the box office despite great audience scores and it’s a real head scratcher that it can’t receive even Captain America like legs. It will come out on top of ASM2 domestically for sure I think and maybe it will level off a bit as coming off of Memorial Weekend is never an easy thing but. These movies are making the Harry Potty series read like Daddy Long Legs. Godzilla, with better audience reception is dying faster than ASM2.

    It will be interesting if Maleficient legs it out to $200M+ as well. Oz had a really big Saturday and got to $79m off of a similar Friday, and with girl power manifesting itself big time these days, it’s entirely possible, that’ll be six $200m+ grossers that opened in the first five months of the year. Last year we had three $200m grossers open in June. It will we interesting to see what will happen this year. Thus far only Dragon 2 and Transformers 4 seem to be a lock.

  3. Hallick says:

    “The Other Woman hit a kinda shocking $80m, proving that women will go see crap just like men.”

    Except that men go see crap when they have plenty of better alternatives aimed at their demographic, whereas women go see crap because at least its SOMETHING made for them.

  4. Curious says:

    I don’t know anyone who liked GODZILLA. I’ve been fascinated by the little pockets of enthusiasm I’ve seen online. This is a pretty great gross considering the quality of the movie.

    If anyone knew the budget of CHEF there would be articles about how much of a failure it is.

  5. MonoStereo says:

    ( raises hand ) I LOVED Godzilla. Thought it was a lot of fun.

    What’s the “Chef” budget? I enjoyed Favs appearance on the Nerdist podcast, but I dunno if I’ll see the movie.

  6. brack says:

    Bulldog – $200m domestic is hard when a big movie comes out week after week, and when the last film of a series wasn’t very loved, like The Amazing Spider-Man, X-Men: The Last Stand. Still, it’s the summer season now for movies, and weekday grosses are better than any other time of the year with the exception of Christmas week.

    There’s no way kids are afraid of seeing Maleficent. Kids under 15? Kids are way too desensitized to be scared of Angelina Jolie. It’s rated PG for crying out loud.

  7. Chris says:

    “I don’t know anyone who liked GODZILLA. I’ve been fascinated by the little pockets of enthusiasm I’ve seen online.”

    And I only know one person who didn’t like Godzilla, everyone else I know like it very much, and a few even love it. Isn’t anecdotal evidence fun?

  8. Hcat says:

    Aren’t the Thursday night previews included in the first Friday gross? Every week I see second Friday estimates that show this massive drop only to see the weekend to turn out 5 to 10 percent better by Sunday.

    And from the reviews and reactions to Million Ways, with how McFarlene presents himself with a modern sensibility in the period setting, wouldn’t it have been more profitable and no less jarring to just have this one star the foul mouthed bear as well?

  9. SamLowry says:

    I still can’t believe the revival of COSMOS would never have occurred without him.

    Yes, the original show inspired millions of kids who are now solidly middle-aged, but you’d have a hard time finding anyone whose output is so antithetical to Sagan’s.

  10. EtGuild2 says:

    Remember, WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS did 80 million+ six years ago, and remains Kutcher’s highest grosser in the lead. BAD TEACHER snagged 100m. People always seem surprised by Diaz’s numbers, but she’s a consistent earner in broad comedies. Plus, FOX marketed the hell out of OTHER WOMAN.

  11. SamLowry says:

    Richard Brody previously slimed GODZILLA by saying it’s “grandeur without depth, complexity without insight, mystery without resonance. It’s a gray credo, devoid of rhetoric, arousing awe and even fear but not limbic terror. The movie is crafted with skill, care, intelligence—everything but inspiration.” Now he’s saying it’s the polar opposite of THE IMMIGRANT but with one point of contact: technique.

    Whereas the former used (in the full sense of the term) people to make the CGI action look realistic, the latter used CGI tricks to make the human stories look realistic.

    So…the movie still sucks, but for different reasons.

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