By David Poland firstname.lastname@example.org
Friday Estimates by The Amazing Klady-Man Too
Only one wide opening this weekend… The Amazing Spider-Man 2. Opening day is 3% or so behind Captain America: The Winter Soldier. It’s hard to compare the opening to the first ASM release, since that was on a Tuesday night for July 4 weekend. Foreign is looking similar to the first film, too.
ASM2 will be #1 next weekend too, with Neighbors likely in the $22.5m – $30m opening range. Then Godzilla will be up. Could win the weekend. Could miss. Will be interesting. X-Men: All In will win the weekend after. Headlines for this weekend will be that Spider-Man was soft for opening in the low 90s. And if Spidey does win 3 weekends in a row, expect silence from those crowing about Cap winning 3 in a row.
The next run of “super” movies 3 weekends in a row is Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past, and Maleficent. Then there is a run of the offbeat “supers” in late July/Early August; Hercules, Guardians of the Galaxy, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. Right now, Transformers 4 looks perfectly placed to be the biggest grosser of the summer. Nothing massive for a couple weeks before it opens, allowing the audience to breathe. Two weekends until Apes, which is also well-placed. And Jupiter Ascending is going to have to convince audiences with – so old school – the movie. If they have the goods, they should start screening early and often. And of course, nothing would make me happier than to see the Wachowskis out front again, as they were on Cloud Atlas.
Decent hold for The Other Woman… it seems because there is nothing else out there for women over superhero-viewing age.
Heaven Is For Real remains for real, passing Son of God today.
Rio 2 passed $100 million yesterday, but still not a happy story.
The Grand Budapest Hotel passed $50 million yesterday and will be about a million behind The Royal Tenenbaums‘ domestic gross by Monday… which means there will be a new #1 Wes Anderson movie domestically by next Friday, probably.
And Belle, the beautiful Jane Austen-inspired portrait – based on a true story – opens to a nice per-screen of somewhere around $20K per on 4 screens. Searchlight needs to build an audience for this film, carefully but aggressively enough to stoke the engine. Talent bookers should start chasing Gugu Mbatha-Raw, who is also in Jupiter Ascending and has the natural ease, acting chops, and beauty to become a very hot commodity before the end of this year. She also has an Oscar-bait movie from Relativity called Blackbird, though if the run of Belle is successful, it could also have her being buzzed about for awards when 2014 comes to a close. (And by the way, the director, Amma Asante, is a big BAFTA-winning personality and talent as well. You should be chasing her too.)
Also showing some per-screen firepower is Kevin Spacey’s self-distributed NOW: In The Wings of a World Stage, which will go about $12k per on 2. He’s not changing the distribution paradigm, but he is out there doing the heavy lifting to get his film rolling. Huzzah.