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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by The Amazing Klady-Man Too

Friday Estimates 2014-05-03 at 8.26.47 AM

Only one wide opening this weekend… The Amazing Spider-Man 2. Opening day is 3% or so behind Captain America: The Winter Soldier. It’s hard to compare the opening to the first ASM release, since that was on a Tuesday night for July 4 weekend. Foreign is looking similar to the first film, too.

ASM2 will be #1 next weekend too, with Neighbors likely in the $22.5m – $30m opening range. Then Godzilla will be up. Could win the weekend. Could miss. Will be interesting. X-Men: All In will win the weekend after. Headlines for this weekend will be that Spider-Man was soft for opening in the low 90s. And if Spidey does win 3 weekends in a row, expect silence from those crowing about Cap winning 3 in a row.

The next run of “super” movies 3 weekends in a row is Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past, and Maleficent. Then there is a run of the offbeat “supers” in late July/Early August; Hercules, Guardians of the Galaxy, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. Right now, Transformers 4 looks perfectly placed to be the biggest grosser of the summer. Nothing massive for a couple weeks before it opens, allowing the audience to breathe. Two weekends until Apes, which is also well-placed. And Jupiter Ascending is going to have to convince audiences with – so old school – the movie. If they have the goods, they should start screening early and often. And of course, nothing would make me happier than to see the Wachowskis out front again, as they were on Cloud Atlas.

Decent hold for The Other Woman… it seems because there is nothing else out there for women over superhero-viewing age.

Heaven Is For Real remains for real, passing Son of God today.

Rio 2 passed $100 million yesterday, but still not a happy story.

The Grand Budapest Hotel passed $50 million yesterday and will be about a million behind The Royal Tenenbaums‘ domestic gross by Monday… which means there will be a new #1 Wes Anderson movie domestically by next Friday, probably.

And Belle, the beautiful Jane Austen-inspired portrait – based on a true story – opens to a nice per-screen of somewhere around $20K per on 4 screens. Searchlight needs to build an audience for this film, carefully but aggressively enough to stoke the engine. Talent bookers should start chasing Gugu Mbatha-Raw, who is also in Jupiter Ascending and has the natural ease, acting chops, and beauty to become a very hot commodity before the end of this year. She also has an Oscar-bait movie from Relativity called Blackbird, though if the run of Belle is successful, it could also have her being buzzed about for awards when 2014 comes to a close. (And by the way, the director, Amma Asante, is a big BAFTA-winning personality and talent as well. You should be chasing her too.)

Also showing some per-screen firepower is Kevin Spacey’s self-distributed NOW: In The Wings of a World Stage, which will go about $12k per on 2. He’s not changing the distribution paradigm, but he is out there doing the heavy lifting to get his film rolling. Huzzah.

13 Responses to “Friday Estimates by The Amazing Klady-Man Too”

  1. Bitplayer says:

    I saw this and I found the whole Amazing Spider 2 to be the Muppet Babies of Spiderman movies. This Peter is a petulant child, not a young man burdened by responsibility or guilt. This Peter is an annoying bumbling idiot who can’t get two words out. He’s a selfish asshole. My old Aunt working double shifts to put me through college? No problem. The movie only plays lip service to his guilt. I always thought the interesting element between Harry Osborn and Peter Parker was that they really were friends, and that Norman had more in common with Peter than Harry. But this movie couldn’t allow an adult be the Goblin, they might need him for multiple movies. So they went young. The goblin shows up just long enough to do what all comic fans know he will do. Emma Stone is the only good thing in either movie. If this continues without her this whole thing is totally fucked. I say start the clone wars.

  2. eric says:

    Wow! Dave way to be indifferent and shrug off Godzilla. Even if it only does Pacific Rim numbers that would be enough to be number 1. And I think the tracking, which yes is not accurate a lot of the time, is for it do a lot better than that. Also it does not seem like audiences have the love for AS 2 you do, so 3 weeks at #1 is not happening

  3. Big G says:

    Audiences don’t seem to love AS 2? It JUST opened.

  4. eric says:

    Yes it just opened domestically but the early social media reaction and the opening night B+ cinema score seems to suggest the audience is not so in love with it that it will have strong week to week holds that it will hold of Godzilla in two weeks. That is all I was saying. Even the most popular well liked blockbusters, save for a Frozen or something, don’t have the best legs anymore. That is biz today.

  5. EtGuild2 says:

    The problem for ASM2 is it has a Godzilla-esque budget. $255 million!? Almost no chance at being as profitable as the recent MCU movies.

  6. christian says:

    Get a great script cribbed from any classic issues of the series and you can make a 90 minute film for half that 255 million budget that will do twice that. Most of these huge budgets are for pure skimming. Worse than it ever was.

  7. GiantFireAnts says:

    Variety reported $60 mil tracking for Godzilla last week. Even if Godzilla turns out to be an over-hyped clunker and “only” pulls a low $40 mil. opening, it would be enough to open above ASM2 in its third weekend, assuming Spidey holds around Cap 2 numbers.

  8. waterbucket says:

    Just googled Gugu Mbatha-raw and goodness, that woman is pretty. The kind of pretty like Rachel McAdams’s where women would cheer for her too. I think you’re right in your prediction that she’ll be big.

  9. Gustavo H.R. says:

    I reckon people will rightly talk more about Captain 2 holding the #1 spot for three consecutive weeks because it was rather unexpected.

    Two of the Raimi Spider-Man movies broke the opening weekend record and the others had spectacular openings and big final grosses, all the while the first Captain America was just sort of there…

  10. LexG says:

    Gugu Mbatha-Raw has been in like 20 things that Poland and anyone here has surely seen; It’s like how Naomie Harris is a “breakthrough discovery” again and again every 2 years because white critics absolutely don’t recognize black actors. I mean literally, they can’t tell them apart or remember what they look like. Though to be fair, I’m equally baffled by KATE MARA suddenly showing up as a FRESH HOLLYWOOD FACE, when she’s been in HUGE movies and TV shows for 11 years, and got zero recognition until the one-two punch of Rooney’s prevalence, and House of Cards.

    But, yeah, I wouldn’t put any money on someone with the name GUGU becoming a big box-office megastar.

  11. SamLowry says:

    I googled Mara after wondering why she got more screen time than her character deserved in TRANSCENDENCE only to discover that she’s apparently enough of an “upcoming star” to be cast in the FF reboot as Sue…which makes no sense because she looked hideous with unnaturally light-colored hair so I’m wondering how she can pull off being blonde without frightening all the kiddies away.

    Wait–is this is the one where the suits decided that the perpetually immature hothead who can’t keep his dick in his pants should really be played by the black guy he was always meant to be? I guess all bets are off, then.

  12. JoJo says:

    David, your ridiculously wide range estimate for Neighbors is still way too low, and, as others have noted, you seem to be dismissive of Godzilla, which pretty much everyone else thinks is going to work. Are you basing your feelings on anything other than pure speculation?

  13. cadavra says:

    As someone who didn’t think LARRY CROWNE was all that terrible, I was simply enchanted by Gugu’s beauty and chops. I’d seen her in her short-lived TV series, but that was the first time she really made an impression on me.

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