By David Poland firstname.lastname@example.org
Weekend Estimates by Klady: The Winter Box Office Analyst
Not a really interesting weekend.
The successful opening of Captain America: The Winter Soldier is not unprecedented, but it is very solid. Avengers has lifted all Marvel boats since 2 summers ago, with Iron Man 3 out-opening any film in that trio by $75 million, Thor: The Dark World out-opening the first Thor by $20 million, and now, Cap 2 out-opening its first film by $30 million. Ultimately, IM3 was #1 for that character by just under $600 million worldwide, a breathtaking leap nearly doubling the previous high. Thor 2 was up just under $200 million. And it seems likely that we will see the same for Cap 2.
These are all positive things. But it’s also very easy to overstate how positive. Yes, Cap 2 beats Fast Five‘s April opening record by about $10 million. And Fast & Furious 6 beat this Cap 2 opening (based on the estimates today) by about a million. What does that mean? It’s not 100% clear. But it is not insignificant as context.
The business model for Marvel is all $150m+ movies… and they are ramping up to 2 a year now and talking about moving up to 3 a year. That means every film they make needs to gross $350m – $450m worldwide to get to breakeven, considering all the ancillaries, including merchandising. Even with the great run Marvel is having, they have to keep it up. That challenge is not quite as easy as some suggest. It’s possible. Anything is possible. But if they start succeeding 2/3 of the time… or failing 1/3 of the time, if you will… the numbers could look very different in a hurry. Time will tell.
After Cap, a lot of nothing. After opening to $43 million, Noah will still get to $100 million domestic… but not soon. (Of course, as noted here from the start, the money is overseas on that one.) Divergent isn’t going to make it to $150m domestic, with international not really kicking in yet. Muppets Most Wanted is doing okay, but will forever be seen as a disappointment.
Holding well this weekend were God’s Not Dead, which looks like it will end up at about the same domestic number as Son of God… about $60m.
The Grand Budapest Hotel remains a serious contender to become Wes Anderson’s biggest domestic grosser.
The Raid 2 and Finding Vivian Maier are doing well in limited release. And the weekend best for per-screen is Under The Skin, which will do about $35k on each of 4 screens.