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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Klady 2: The Lost Soldier

Friday Estimates 2014-04-12 at 10.06.11 AM

Amazingly, 64% off on the 2nd Friday for a big opening like Captain America: The Winter Soldier is pretty good. Opening Friday represents the strongest must-see interest, so as that group has been sated, the demand for matinees on Friday drop significantly. Iron Man 2 was off 70.5% on Friday 2 and Thor 2 was off 67% on F2 and they ended up off 59% and 57% for the weekend, respectively. Look for Cap2 to end up being off about 57% for the weekend, around $42 million.

That said, Cap should still be beaten by Rio 2, though by a tighter margin than you would usually expect when you see an animated film win a Friday, even by a slight margin. But such is the nature of the box office. Fox and DreamWorks Animation will be watching numbers extra closely today.

With the two other newcomers, Oculus and Draft Day, things get more interesting, as you have a horror film, a genre that tends to fall off over an opening weekend, and an adult comedy/dramedy that will likely get stronger with word of mouth… just not this weekend. I like Oculus to beat Draft Day this weekend, but Draft Day to end up with the higher domestic gross when all is said and done.

The Grand Budapest Hotel reached its tipping point last weekend with the expansion to 1263 screens. They added another 203 this weekend, but we’re now in the diminishing returns period for the (great) film and the screens will likely start to drop away next weekend. Still, Anderson’s #2 all-time and most recent previous film, Moonrise Kingdom, is still in range and will probably be passed by Budapest domestically. And the really big news for Team Anderson is that Budapest has more than DOUBLED any previous Wes Anderson movie internationally, the previous top being Fantastic Mr. Fox… which makes for a pun, as the newfound success overseas is likely due to the strength of Fox’s international team, which is now every bit Warner Bros’ equal, if not the top team in the industry. It looks like the Budapest worldwide number will be at least 40% better than Anderson’s previous best, The Royal Tenenbaums. And I would expect Fox Searchlight to remain Wes & Scott Rudin’s first choice of studio for Wes’ films moving forward.

Three veteran domestic grosses in this weekend’s Top Ten stand out as somewhat disappointing… for Divergent, Noah, and Mr. Sherman & Peabody. Divergent will be pressed to hit $130m domestic and its international has barely started. Clearly, Summitsgate anticipates strong numbers or it wouldn’t be expanding to a 4-film series. Noah is unlikely to see $100m domestic and the vaunted international numbers are still a little less buoyant than expected. Mr. Peabody & Sherman has the strongest international at this point, but it’s still chasing Turbo for a worldwide gross, and Turbo was seen as a big disappointment. There won’t be a lot written about these films, but all three are worth keeping an eye on.

The arthouse hit of the weekend is Jim Jarmusch’s delightfully psychotic and elegant Only Lovers Left Alive, which debuted almost a year ago at Cannes to some critical snottiness (now – thankfully – forgotten). It should be in the $19k per-screen range for the 3 day, on 4 screens, which is solid, but still not indicative of a national phenom in the making. Great movie though, if you are a film geek. See it on screen while you can.

9 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady 2: The Lost Soldier”

  1. movieman says:

    Hope “Draft Day” evinces legs down the road because it’s a terrific “Saturday Night at the Movies” kind of movie.
    Yeah, it’s “Moneyball Lite,” but it’s also very smart about a lot of things (football, men and women, mothers and sons, sons and fathers, 21st century pro athletes, Cleveland) that I was both (thoroughly) entertained and impressed.
    Love that Garner’s character is as dimensional as she is: whip-smart and savvy about biz (and football), yet a thoroughly decent human being. (Most female characters in H’wood movies have to be irredeemable bitches if they’re too successful.)
    Needless to say, Costner still has it.
    Reitman Sr. may never be anybody’s idea of an auteur, but this ranks among his most enjoyable films to date (a list that includes “Dave” and “Ghostbusters”).
    Surprised the overall reviews were so tepid-to-condescending.

  2. dinovelvet says:

    I’m gonna be interested to see how The Raid 2 looks in its 900+ theater expansion, because I was going to go see it yesterday afternoon, only to discover that NO tickets had been sold (it was an assigned seating place so you can see which seats have and have not been taken). Waited around a few minutes past start time, nope, no takers. And this is in So Cal, not some out in the sticks venue. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a new release fail to get a single ass on seat at a day one matinee showing! I chickened out of seeing it myself, I’d feel weird and self conscious about being the only guy in there! Saw JOE instead, which had 12 or so customers at the matinee.

  3. palmtree says:

    If Reitman is an auteur, Groundhog Day makes it so.

  4. SamLowry says:

    So…Reitman is such an amazing auteur that his magnificence rubbed off onto Harold Ramis? Like pixie dust, right? (It’s too soon to invoke another STD reference.)

  5. Nick says:

    Who are you people? “I didn’t go to the movie I wanted to see because other people didn’t go to see it” and “Ivan reitman directed Groundhog Day”

    I’m shocked you people even make it to this page to check out grosses. Because that at leat means you’re interested in movies. But those quotes show that you are pathetic. Sorry to burst your bubbles. But that’s the truth. If you think Groundhog Day was directed by reitman (especially after Ramos just died and his obit clearly says he directed it)
    And if attendance dictates your film choice hen you all suck and deserve to watch shit films.

  6. movieman says:

    Nothing pleases me more than discovering that I’m the only one in a theater:
    private screenings rock!

    Wish I had the option of seeing “Joe” and/or “The Raid 2″ at my nearest ‘plex.
    Here it’s 3 prints of “Rio 2,” 4 prints of “Captain America” 2 prints of “Divergent”….

  7. Chucky says:

    “Joe” starred Academy Award Winner Nicolas Cage. Academy Award Winner above an actor’s name = Box Office Loser.

    “The Raid 2″ had the Peter Travers seal of approval. Peter Travers pullquote = the kiss of death.

  8. Pete B. says:

    Private showings always make me feel like I’m Elvis and bought out the theater for my own personal amusement.

    Did anyone else think with the early trailers that Draft Day was just a spoof by NFL marketing? I was shocked when I discovered it was a real film.

  9. christian says:

    RIO 2?

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