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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Oscar The Klady Grouch

Weekend Estimates 2014-03-02 at 9.55.06 AM

Son of God, why has thou forsaken me?

Son of God apparently was frontloaded on Friday, making my assumption that it would get stronger over the weekend as the churchgoers showed up for it was wrong. Still, this is the second best opening ever for a “Christian film,” aside from the Narnia films, which were big-budget spectaculars seeking a 4-quadrant audience. Next up, Noah.

The Passion of The Christ also figures into The Lego Movie‘s weekend, which saw the film become the fourth fastest film outside of the summer or holiday corridors to hit $200 million, behind only The Hunger Games and The Passion, and Alice in Wonderland.

The Monuments Men, in spite of tough reviews, is closing in on the top George Clooney non-group, non-big-action, domestic grossers, The Descendants and Up In The Air in the low 80s. (The bigger titles that seem to be competing in a different category are Oceans, Storm, Batman & Robin, and Gravity.) This is pretty impressive, really. Of course, one could argue that TMM is a group movie… a drama, period Oceans… especially given Clooney’s limited role in the film. But still… I am surprised by the solid hold for this film. An older audience has found it and is sticking with it.

As the Oscar weekend is here, there are 7 Best Picture nominees in theaters and all but 1 is up for the weekend… and that 1, Nebraska, is only down 3%. Still, the top grosser in the group (American Hustle) is estimated at only $1.9m. All 7 films combined grossed under $7.5 million. So while it is clear that there is an audience out there trying to catch up, it’s hardly the material of headlines.

21 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Oscar The Klady Grouch”

  1. movielocke says:

    it amazes me that with redbox killing off rental, so many films on video, available for purchase at the store are still in theatres making decent money. Pretty unprecedented for the modern era. I know frozen is fast closing the window, but for non animated films would we see the window start to get wider?

    I mean other than making the trek to cinephile or vidiots, I don’t know how to even rent a movie anymore, sure we occasionally use red box at vons but it’s pretty unreliable. We buy cheap internet so streaming doesn’t work for us. Or it does work but watching a ninety minute movie takes two and a half hours, longer than TNT with commercials, but with all the start and stopping of commercials.

  2. EtGuild2 says:

    That’s true movieman.

    FROZEN becomes the most unlikey $1 billion grosser in movie history this weekend, and ties AVATAR with 14 weeks in the top 10.

    THE WIND RISES has to be considered a letdown. Probably Miyazaki’s lowest grosser in 15 years in the States. Seems the subject matter usurped the retirement announcement.

  3. movieman says:

    Since the “Hunger Games” movies grossed more than any of the “Harry
    Potter” or “Twilight” installments, does that mean the “Hunger” books were
    more popular than the “Potter” or “Twi” tomes?
    Or is it strictly a matter of ticket (price) inflation?
    And those “HG” movies did it (so far anyway) without 3-D.

  4. JS Partisan says:

    Movie, all three of those franchises, are very comparable to one another. HP is still a beast though.

  5. christian says:

    How does anybody use RedBox? I looked at the front one time and saw nothing but Kevin James, Adam Sandler and a dozen cookie cutter toons.

  6. Ray Pride says:

    A friend of mine is always finding direct-to-disc stuff with actors I’ve heard of, but as for the films?

  7. Monco says:

    Just rented Nebraska and All is Lost on blu-ray this weekend at a Redbox. There are good movies in them.

  8. Arisp says:

    Movielock – Netflix is the way to rent new movies. And spend a little more and get some decent Internet.

  9. Bulldog68 says:

    I dig Redbox. I get a free movie at least once every two weeks, it`s day and date with On Demand, and once I make up my mind that I`m going to watch the movie that night, it`s half as cheap as renting from my cable company. At least in Canada anyway.

  10. SamLowry says:

    Netflix? Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha…I get tagged with an extra $10 fee on my phone bill if the youngling watches too many YouTube vids, so there’s no way in heck I’ll try to stream an entire movie.

    It’s Redbox for me, then, even though there should be a dedicated returns slot on the side so you don’t have to wait in line behind all the slow-ass jerks who like to flick through screen after screen while thinking about renting something.

  11. Hcat says:

    So the memorial tonight…..sort of good since there were just so many names it would be tough to show clips, but would haveuch rather seen montages than the song

  12. christian says:

    RedBox looks like a product vending machine in the worst way.

  13. Hallick says:

    With the minutes wasted on affording Bette Midler the chance to earn one billion death stares, they had the time to include clip packages of dead Craft Services workers.

  14. hcat says:

    Isn’t Redbox’s selection the same as Blockbusters was? I signed up with Netflix in 02 so was only in a BB once or twice since then but was always astounded on how they really didn’t have any actual movies, that the shelves were littered with Mario Van Peebles, Steven Seagal titles and Leprechaun goes to Spring Break. So placing it in a vending machine certainly wasn’t going to improve on the selection available, but I am not sure it has made it worse.

  15. EtGuild2 says:

    Yeah movieman, as much as inflation is a no-no subject on this blog, Potter 1 grossed about $500 million adjusted. And the worldwide grosses crush Hunger Games without inflation.

  16. SamLowry says:

    If you want to watch a movie the first week it’s available then yeah, your local Redbox machine will probably leave you high and dry, unless you either a) go to the Redbox website and search to find which machines near you might contain the movie you want, which you can then reserve and pick up at your leisure, or b) check the machine in the early afternoon, around the 9pm return deadline, or in the middle of the week.

    Otherwise, you WILL be stuck with Eurotrash horror movies and grade-Z Pixar ripoffs.

  17. cadavra says:

    WIND RISES a letdown? Who in his right mind expected it to be big? It’s strictly an adult film, with zero interest to children, and the world is full of LexGs who won’t touch animation with the proverbial ten-foot pole. If SPIRITED AWAY, a genuine all-ages movie, could barely crack $10 million even with an Academy Award, how could RISES ever be anything but art-house fodder?

  18. matt says:

    @Etguild

    This is the first weekend of expansion for The Wind Rises, so let’s not write it off yet! $2M cume is nothing to sneeze at, and it has a good chance of outgrossing Mononoke and Howl’s by the end of its run-

    Mononoke grossed $2.4 million in the US
    Howl’s grossed $4.7 million in the US

    http://boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Director&id=hayaomiyazaki.htm

    Miyazaki has a dedicated following, but none of his films are terribly huge financially in the US.

  19. EtGuild2 says:

    After PONYO did $15 million and SECRET WORLD OF ARRIETTY did $19 million, I thought maybe anime was starting to cross over. Turns out cadavra is right, in that as long as animation doesn’t involve whimsy, kiddies and sparkly dresses, it doesn’t really get an audience.

    But yeah, It might get close to HOWL’S CASTLE, you’re right.

  20. cadavra says:

    HOWL is not a good comparison. At its widest point of release it was only in 202 theatres. (And MONONOKE’s widest week was 129.)

  21. Mike says:

    Surprised they went so wide with Wind. It seems like a tough sell.

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The Hot Blog

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
The Purge: Anarchy 12.9 2806 NEW 12.9
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 10.4 3969 -62% 113.4
Planes: Fire & Rescue 6.3 3826 NEW 6.3
Sex Tape 5.6 3062 NEW 5.6
Transformers: Age of Extinction 2.7 3224 -45% 219.9
Tammy 2.3 3402 -45% 65.9
22 Jump Street 1.4 2229 -31% 177.2
How to Train Your Dragon 2 1.1 2169 -40% 157.9
Earth to Echo 1 2450 -44% 29.7
Maleficent 0.9 1541 -27% 226
Also Debuting
Persecuted 0.31 736
Wish I Was Here 0.15 68
Velaiyilla Pattathari 61,800 31
Mood Indigo 10,400 2
There's No Place Like Utopia 10,300 1
I Origins 9,500 4
A Five Star Life 4,000 1
Alive Inside 3,600 1
An American in Hollywood 2,750 4
Among Ravens 2,000 4
Video Games 1,700 6
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office