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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Oscar The Klady Grouch

Weekend Estimates 2014-03-02 at 9.55.06 AM

Son of God, why has thou forsaken me?

Son of God apparently was frontloaded on Friday, making my assumption that it would get stronger over the weekend as the churchgoers showed up for it was wrong. Still, this is the second best opening ever for a “Christian film,” aside from the Narnia films, which were big-budget spectaculars seeking a 4-quadrant audience. Next up, Noah.

The Passion of The Christ also figures into The Lego Movie‘s weekend, which saw the film become the fourth fastest film outside of the summer or holiday corridors to hit $200 million, behind only The Hunger Games and The Passion, and Alice in Wonderland.

The Monuments Men, in spite of tough reviews, is closing in on the top George Clooney non-group, non-big-action, domestic grossers, The Descendants and Up In The Air in the low 80s. (The bigger titles that seem to be competing in a different category are Oceans, Storm, Batman & Robin, and Gravity.) This is pretty impressive, really. Of course, one could argue that TMM is a group movie… a drama, period Oceans… especially given Clooney’s limited role in the film. But still… I am surprised by the solid hold for this film. An older audience has found it and is sticking with it.

As the Oscar weekend is here, there are 7 Best Picture nominees in theaters and all but 1 is up for the weekend… and that 1, Nebraska, is only down 3%. Still, the top grosser in the group (American Hustle) is estimated at only $1.9m. All 7 films combined grossed under $7.5 million. So while it is clear that there is an audience out there trying to catch up, it’s hardly the material of headlines.

21 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Oscar The Klady Grouch”

  1. movielocke says:

    it amazes me that with redbox killing off rental, so many films on video, available for purchase at the store are still in theatres making decent money. Pretty unprecedented for the modern era. I know frozen is fast closing the window, but for non animated films would we see the window start to get wider?

    I mean other than making the trek to cinephile or vidiots, I don’t know how to even rent a movie anymore, sure we occasionally use red box at vons but it’s pretty unreliable. We buy cheap internet so streaming doesn’t work for us. Or it does work but watching a ninety minute movie takes two and a half hours, longer than TNT with commercials, but with all the start and stopping of commercials.

  2. EtGuild2 says:

    That’s true movieman.

    FROZEN becomes the most unlikey $1 billion grosser in movie history this weekend, and ties AVATAR with 14 weeks in the top 10.

    THE WIND RISES has to be considered a letdown. Probably Miyazaki’s lowest grosser in 15 years in the States. Seems the subject matter usurped the retirement announcement.

  3. movieman says:

    Since the “Hunger Games” movies grossed more than any of the “Harry
    Potter” or “Twilight” installments, does that mean the “Hunger” books were
    more popular than the “Potter” or “Twi” tomes?
    Or is it strictly a matter of ticket (price) inflation?
    And those “HG” movies did it (so far anyway) without 3-D.

  4. JS Partisan says:

    Movie, all three of those franchises, are very comparable to one another. HP is still a beast though.

  5. christian says:

    How does anybody use RedBox? I looked at the front one time and saw nothing but Kevin James, Adam Sandler and a dozen cookie cutter toons.

  6. Ray Pride says:

    A friend of mine is always finding direct-to-disc stuff with actors I’ve heard of, but as for the films?

  7. Monco says:

    Just rented Nebraska and All is Lost on blu-ray this weekend at a Redbox. There are good movies in them.

  8. Arisp says:

    Movielock – Netflix is the way to rent new movies. And spend a little more and get some decent Internet.

  9. Bulldog68 says:

    I dig Redbox. I get a free movie at least once every two weeks, it`s day and date with On Demand, and once I make up my mind that I`m going to watch the movie that night, it`s half as cheap as renting from my cable company. At least in Canada anyway.

  10. SamLowry says:

    Netflix? Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha…I get tagged with an extra $10 fee on my phone bill if the youngling watches too many YouTube vids, so there’s no way in heck I’ll try to stream an entire movie.

    It’s Redbox for me, then, even though there should be a dedicated returns slot on the side so you don’t have to wait in line behind all the slow-ass jerks who like to flick through screen after screen while thinking about renting something.

  11. Hcat says:

    So the memorial tonight…..sort of good since there were just so many names it would be tough to show clips, but would haveuch rather seen montages than the song

  12. christian says:

    RedBox looks like a product vending machine in the worst way.

  13. Hallick says:

    With the minutes wasted on affording Bette Midler the chance to earn one billion death stares, they had the time to include clip packages of dead Craft Services workers.

  14. hcat says:

    Isn’t Redbox’s selection the same as Blockbusters was? I signed up with Netflix in 02 so was only in a BB once or twice since then but was always astounded on how they really didn’t have any actual movies, that the shelves were littered with Mario Van Peebles, Steven Seagal titles and Leprechaun goes to Spring Break. So placing it in a vending machine certainly wasn’t going to improve on the selection available, but I am not sure it has made it worse.

  15. EtGuild2 says:

    Yeah movieman, as much as inflation is a no-no subject on this blog, Potter 1 grossed about $500 million adjusted. And the worldwide grosses crush Hunger Games without inflation.

  16. SamLowry says:

    If you want to watch a movie the first week it’s available then yeah, your local Redbox machine will probably leave you high and dry, unless you either a) go to the Redbox website and search to find which machines near you might contain the movie you want, which you can then reserve and pick up at your leisure, or b) check the machine in the early afternoon, around the 9pm return deadline, or in the middle of the week.

    Otherwise, you WILL be stuck with Eurotrash horror movies and grade-Z Pixar ripoffs.

  17. cadavra says:

    WIND RISES a letdown? Who in his right mind expected it to be big? It’s strictly an adult film, with zero interest to children, and the world is full of LexGs who won’t touch animation with the proverbial ten-foot pole. If SPIRITED AWAY, a genuine all-ages movie, could barely crack $10 million even with an Academy Award, how could RISES ever be anything but art-house fodder?

  18. matt says:


    This is the first weekend of expansion for The Wind Rises, so let’s not write it off yet! $2M cume is nothing to sneeze at, and it has a good chance of outgrossing Mononoke and Howl’s by the end of its run-

    Mononoke grossed $2.4 million in the US
    Howl’s grossed $4.7 million in the US

    Miyazaki has a dedicated following, but none of his films are terribly huge financially in the US.

  19. EtGuild2 says:

    After PONYO did $15 million and SECRET WORLD OF ARRIETTY did $19 million, I thought maybe anime was starting to cross over. Turns out cadavra is right, in that as long as animation doesn’t involve whimsy, kiddies and sparkly dresses, it doesn’t really get an audience.

    But yeah, It might get close to HOWL’S CASTLE, you’re right.

  20. cadavra says:

    HOWL is not a good comparison. At its widest point of release it was only in 202 theatres. (And MONONOKE’s widest week was 129.)

  21. Mike says:

    Surprised they went so wide with Wind. It seems like a tough sell.

The Hot Blog

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Incredibles 2* 71.4 4410 NEW 71.4
Ocean's 8 5.9 4145 -62% 65.5
Tag 5.4 3382 NEW 5.4
Solo: A Star Wars Story 2.3 3182 -44% 186.1
Deadpool 2 2.3 3212 -40% 288.2
Hereditary 2.2 2998 -57% 22.3
Superfly 1.8 2220 NEW 4
Avengers: Infinity War 1.4 2164 -24% 660.3
Adrift 0.65 1929 -57% 25.4
Gotti 0.6 503 NEW 0.6
* includes Thursday opening
Also Debuting
Race 3 0.59 313
Sammohanam 0.1 121
Naa Nuvve 15,100 118
Eating Animals 12,200 2
7 Din Mohabbat In 8,900 31
Outez-moi d'un doute 2,900 11
Five Seasons: Gardens of Piet Oudolf 2,200 4
The Yellow Birds 2,000 14
The Year of Spectacular Men 1,800 11
Straight Into a Storm 1,800 1
Gabriel and the Mountain 1,500 2
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4