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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Mr Klady & Themistokles

Weekend Estimates 2014-03-09 at 10.59.33 AM

302 pretty much had a weekend to match its opening day, off 37% from the original film… which projects out to a $133m domestic gross or almost exactly 3x opening weekend. That’s probably a reach, considering that the response to this film is not an event of cultural zeitgeist, which the first one was. But $100m domestic seems sure. And internationally, the number could be bigger for this one than the first. That’s where the commercial success of this film will ultimately be defined.

Mr. Peabody & Sherman scored a significant uptick from the Friday estimate, now estimating more than 4x Friday for the weekend. This was critical for DreamWorks Animation, as they almost has another Rise of the Guardians or Turbo on their hands. Personally, I really enjoyed Turbo, but the stock market did not. And it isn’t going to love this either, but it probably will not punish DWA for a $32m opening and likely $100m+ domestic gross as much.

The Grand Budapest Hotel is an impressive start… and really easy to overstate. You may recall The Master doing $736k on 5 screens in 2012 before grossing $16.4m domestic. I love the movie and would be happy to see it crack the Wes Anderson record of $52.4 million, grossed domestically by The Royal Tenenbaums 13 years ago. That may well happen. But what you can take from this opening with overhyping it is that Wes Anderson has established a bigger audience than he used to have. For a long time, Tenenbaums was the exception and $20 million or so domestic was the rule. The new rule for Wes seems to be $40m+, which is a great thing for truly independent-minded cinema.

Son of God had a big ol’ drop, as the religious right seemed to line up against the film and filmmakers. It will still be plenty profitable.

12 Years A Slave, by way of estimate, got a slightly bigger bump than Friday indicated… but still, the number is small. Likewise for Frozen, which dropped only 19% by estimate. The one part of this that is important for 12 Years is that when it hits $55m domestic, it will become the #6 highest grossing (domestic) of the last decade of Best Picture winners, outgrossing Crash, The Hurt Locker, and The Artist. The rest of the recent BP winners all grossed over $100 million.

20 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Mr Klady & Themistokles”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    The headline will be the $200,000 per screen, but the raw dollar figure is incredible for GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL. Consider that the only four Searchlight movies to make more than $800,000 in less than 100 theatres are BLACK SWAN, DESCENDENTS, 12 YEARS A SLAVE, and 500 DAYS of SUMMER…and those all opened in at least 18 theatres, not 4.

    Also, consider that LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE and JUNO made half as much in 7 theatres when they opened, and MARIGOLD HOTEL made less than the BUDAPEST HOTEL despite opening in 27 theatres.

    Also, movieman, you were right. It opened to $10 million overseas. The Berlin exposure and Euro setting set it up perfectly.

  2. Chucky says:

    That $200,000 per-theater average comes from 4 snooty arthouses. Wait until the movie hits mainstream theaters.

    Also, ask Fox why the need to feature a pullquote from Mr. Quote Whore himself, Peter Travers.

  3. Gustavo H.R. says:

    “That $200,000 per-theater average comes from 4 snooty arthouses. Wait until the movie hits mainstream theaters.”

    Do you really think anybody who reads this blog frequently doesn’t know that?

  4. Hallick says:

    “Do you really think anybody who reads this blog frequently doesn’t know that?”

    As one frequent reader of this blog, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

  5. Joe Leydon says:

    The religious right has come out against the new Jesus movie? Really? I would have thought they’d be supporting the movie against the slings and arrows of heathen critics.

  6. Foamy Squirrel says:

    It’s Chucky. There’s no use speculating on what he thinks.

  7. SamLowry says:

    TURBO was the bastard child of CARS and BREAKING AWAY. Really, no one else noticed the obvious cut-n-paste insertion of hero worship for the Italian racer who–surprise!–turns out to be a cheaty, protagonist-injuring saboteur?

    Also, the religious right tore Roma Downey and Mark Burnett a new asshole last year when they realized the reason “The Bible” felt a bit off is because Downey is a full-on New Ager; during an interview last year she said she felt so “centered” she could practically levitate.

    Christians aren’t into “centering”, or levitation, BTW, thus the built-in distrust for SON OF GOD.

  8. Smith says:

    Kinda shocked to read that Peabody & Sherman apparently cost $145m. Looks like a totally low rent, third rate CGI tune based on trailers and commercials. I know it’s DreamWorks, but I just assumed that it was their farm team doing the work here, a la Planes for Disney.

  9. Joe Leydon says:

    Sam: The funny thing is, when I interviewed Roma Downey, we both shared stories about being taught by ruler-wielding nuns during childhood. And the movie, according to her, seemed to have the, ahem, blessing of some big-deal Christian leaders.

    http://houston.culturemap.com/news/entertainment/02-28-14-ison-of-godi-looks-to-dominate-less-pure-movies-roma-downey-unapologetic-in-praising-her-vision/

  10. poet67 says:

    You’ll hear any opinion you’re looking for out on the internet. The success of “Son of God” alone is a reason for some attention seekers to go off on it. There are some Christians out there who object to any dramatic interpretation of Scripture because it can’t possibly be totally faithful. Theyre the same people who have been making noise about Noah too. I remember some Fundamentalists ten years ago who disliked ‘The Passion of the Christ’ because it was “too papist”.

  11. EtGuild2 says:

    “The religious right has come out against the new Jesus movie? Really?”

    The movie the evangelicals are clamoring for? Something called “Persecuted,” screened at CPAC this weekend, in which an American pastor named John Luther (subtle!) must fight against the evil Senate Majority Leader, Robert Harrison (Bruce Davison, making a career out of it after playing the gay/mutant murdering Senator in the X-Men films) and his Faith and Fairness Act, the most evil piece of liberal legislation…since state run health insurance exchanges were introduced into the marketplace…no, actually, ever. Spoiler alert: Harrison is the antichrist.

    @smith, PEABODY has been in pre-production at Dreamworks since 2006. They didn’t go into “let’s make the whole movie…twice!” mode like Disney did with the $260 million “Tangled,” but one might assume…Robert Downey Jr. was originally involved for instance….that costs were high for that reason.

  12. Bob Burns says:

    went to see The Wind Rises, but they started playing Mr Peabody instead – much chagrin. Beauty vs BS. Thankfully beauty prevailed.

  13. Chucky says:

    The theater must still be using 35mm if that screw-up happened.

    As for “The Grand Budapest Hotel”, my bad. That inflated per-theater average comes via the Loews Lincoln Square on the Upper West Side and the Regal Union Square in lower Manhattan.

  14. EtGuild2 says:

    As someone who occasionally frequents the Loews in Lincoln, I can tell you that the audience is a lot less “snooty” than you’d think. Saw “Her” there in a packed theater on New Years and the “That was weird…I didn’t get it” seemed to outweigh the rapturous reaction I had.

  15. Jermsguy says:

    Seems like “the religious right” saw Son of God the first week, and poor reviews hurt its shot at breaking out beyond that.

  16. Sam says:

    “The religious right has come out against the new Jesus movie? Really? I would have thought they’d be supporting the movie against the slings and arrows of heathen critics.”

    SamLowry is right about the reason that fundamental Christians are distrustful of the filmmakers, but one can be more specific about how their New Age slant skews the portrayal of Jesus in the film, which de-emphasizes if not outright ignores the core part of Jesus’ teachings about sin and repentance.

    It’s not a surprise that a group whose unifying characteristic is a world view would reject a film ostensibly representing it but actually containing a different world view.

  17. palmtree says:

    But Son of God was edited from last year’s miniseries, which had explosively good ratings. When was the outcry then?

  18. EtGuild2 says:

    I assume most people watching the channel known for the history of Ancient Aliens, the health status of Nessie, and Bigfoot’s latest sightings think stuff like “The Bible” is high art.

  19. SamLowry says:

    I can’t find the original page I read (and I have no idea how the heck I got there) but it was both funny and spooky at the same time. Written by someone I’ll call The Church Lady, she decided to do a little digging after being befuddled by one head-scratching moment after another in “The Bible” (none of which she ever described) and only then did she uncover the New Agey background of the show’s producers (Downey graduated from the University of Santa Monica with a master’s degree in “Spiritual Psychology”–a quick search reveals the place is a New Age organization).

    The humorous part was when The Church Lady tried to alert the rest of the flock to what she found; she hinted with some disapproval that they had watched the miniseries rather credulously and hadn’t even noticed the problems she had. So she put the page together as a warning and, in a rather spooky manner, kept repeating “Do not trust them” throughout the article.

    And Joe, hearing that Downey was raised a Catholic doesn’t help her one bit with the religious right; it wasn’t all that long ago when some of their sheet-wearing ancestors lumped ‘em in with blacks and Jews and communists and homosexuals and any other ostracized group you can think of.

  20. cadavra says:

    Many of them are still distrustful of Catholics. Anytime you hear someone refer to a Catholic as a “Roman” you know they’re not a fan.

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The Hot Blog

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
If I Stay 6.8 2907 NEW 6.8
Guardians of the Galaxy 4.8 3371 -31% 239.3
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.5 3864 -44% 133.3
Let's Be Cops 3.2 3140 -44% 37.4
When the Game Stands Tall 2.9 2673 NEW 2.9
Sin City: A Dame to Kil For 2.6 2894 NEW 2.6
The Giver 4.7 3003 -57% 23
The Expendables 3 1.9 3221 -68% 19.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 1.6 1944 -23% 28.8
Into the Storm 1.1 2375 -54% 35.6
Also Debuting
Mardaani 52,400 76
Love is Strange 36,500 5
The One I Love 12,800 10
To Be Takei 6,800 15
Tu dors Nicole 5,800 3
Keyed: A Deadly Game of Sex Lies Betrayal 3,800 1
Are You Here 3,000 14
Expedition to the End of the World 2,200 1
The Prince 1,850 10
The Possession of Michael King 1,800 4
Salvo 1,150 2
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office