By David Poland firstname.lastname@example.org
Weekend Estimates by Mr Klady & Themistokles
302 pretty much had a weekend to match its opening day, off 37% from the original film… which projects out to a $133m domestic gross or almost exactly 3x opening weekend. That’s probably a reach, considering that the response to this film is not an event of cultural zeitgeist, which the first one was. But $100m domestic seems sure. And internationally, the number could be bigger for this one than the first. That’s where the commercial success of this film will ultimately be defined.
Mr. Peabody & Sherman scored a significant uptick from the Friday estimate, now estimating more than 4x Friday for the weekend. This was critical for DreamWorks Animation, as they almost has another Rise of the Guardians or Turbo on their hands. Personally, I really enjoyed Turbo, but the stock market did not. And it isn’t going to love this either, but it probably will not punish DWA for a $32m opening and likely $100m+ domestic gross as much.
The Grand Budapest Hotel is an impressive start… and really easy to overstate. You may recall The Master doing $736k on 5 screens in 2012 before grossing $16.4m domestic. I love the movie and would be happy to see it crack the Wes Anderson record of $52.4 million, grossed domestically by The Royal Tenenbaums 13 years ago. That may well happen. But what you can take from this opening with overhyping it is that Wes Anderson has established a bigger audience than he used to have. For a long time, Tenenbaums was the exception and $20 million or so domestic was the rule. The new rule for Wes seems to be $40m+, which is a great thing for truly independent-minded cinema.
Son of God had a big ol’ drop, as the religious right seemed to line up against the film and filmmakers. It will still be plenty profitable.
12 Years A Slave, by way of estimate, got a slightly bigger bump than Friday indicated… but still, the number is small. Likewise for Frozen, which dropped only 19% by estimate. The one part of this that is important for 12 Years is that when it hits $55m domestic, it will become the #6 highest grossing (domestic) of the last decade of Best Picture winners, outgrossing Crash, The Hurt Locker, and The Artist. The rest of the recent BP winners all grossed over $100 million.