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By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Klady, The Needy Speed

Weekend Estimates 2014-03-16 at 10.06.56 AM

Brutal 3-day for Need For Speed. 2.7x Friday is not good and suggests that as weak as the launch was, it represented much of the demand for the film that existed in the marketplace.

Also frontloaded was Veronica Mars, which is in no way a real Warner Bros motion pictures release. It’s a Home Entertainment stunt. And $6,873 per-screen for that, with a tiny marketing spend, is okay. It’s not a game-changer, but it’s pretty good for the VOD-in-theatrical market these days. But after a $1 million estimate on Friday, a $2m for the total weekend is a little disappointing. This film has the same  problem as most VOD product… it’s a very limited market and there isn’t going to be a marketing spend to break it beyond the core audience. This will be a profitable venture, especially with production costs largely covered by the fans. But no real news here.

I got into Tyler Perry’s The Single Mom’s Club yesterday. Not a lot more to say. Worst TP opening ever. Series to come on OWN.

The Grand Budapest Hotel has another strong weekend in limited. $55m domestic, $80m worldwide, here we come!!! The good news about that, joking aside, is that it will keep an auteur working without many constraints, within a reasonable budget size. Hooray for good movies and great, ambitious filmmakers.

12 Years A Slave hits $55m domestic and $160m worldwide.

17 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady, The Needy Speed”

  1. Gus says:

    Can someone explain to me why a company would adapt a property such as a video game and then go out of its way to avoid association with that property?

    I realize video game adaptations have not done enormously well. But why then would it adapt one in the first place, especially one without a built in narrative or iconic hero?

  2. Joe Leydon says:

    I want to throw out a theory and get some feedback: It’s my contention that anywhere from half to three-quarters of the people in this country who are cable subscribers have no idea that they can order VOD movies like Veronica Mars or The Art of the Steal. No, I’m not saying they have no idea how to order. I’m saying they have no idea that they can order. Yes, they may be aware that it’s possible to order recent theatrical releases. But indies? Limited theatrical release items? No clue. They simply don’t know the product is out there.

  3. John says:

    Joe,
    I think you may be right. I know of one distributor who got insanely excited that his latest VOD film had a title that started with the letter A. It would show up on the first page of rentals.

  4. cadavra says:

    Apparently a lot of VERONICA fans are watching it on VOD to preserve the original experience of seeing the series at home. I wonder how much better it would have done in theatres if they’d given them a week or two head-start.

  5. Bitplayer says:

    That Need For Speed trailer looked so damn cheap I thought it was a commercial for some product, not a movie. This should have been a VOD project.

  6. Hallick says:

    “Apparently a lot of VERONICA fans are watching it on VOD to preserve the original experience of seeing the series at home.”

    And now I struggle to find a word that captures exactly how depressing that fact(?) is.

  7. Hallick says:

    Joe, I think the non-awareness level probably extends to ANY releases for a large segment of cable subscribers who still think such a thing is something they’d only find on a hotel room set.

  8. Hallick says:

    Additionally, in my hometown where Comcast is king, czar, emperor and galactic potentate, VOD is STILL NOT AVAILABLE AT ALL. Not sure how far and wide this extends across the other small town markets, but we’re only two hours north of San Francisco for crying out loud.

  9. EtGuild2 says:

    “Budapest” is the first movie to crack $50,000 per theater while playing in at least 50 theaters. You’re probably spot on that $50 million is the ceiling here (though overseas, it’s already at 20 million), but seems like there is an added layer of frenzy to see this movie immediately for some reason.

  10. Chucky says:

    Because of “Veronica Mars”, Fox expanded “The Grand Budapest Hotel” to some less-than-desirable locations. You can see the Wes Anderson pic in the AMC Garden State but not (yet) in the Loews Palisades Center.

  11. KrazyEyes says:

    The VOD experience still leaves a ton to be desired. Magnet often has a number of flicks each year I would watch over VOD but finding out when it’s available and then finding a specific title in the huge list of other titles is annoying. If I didn’t know it was out I would have never seen it.

    As a result I rarely, if ever, use VOD.

  12. Triple Option says:

    I doubt most people know about the VOD option for those films that are in theaters. Awareness is #1. I wonder how much is price point an option. Even though VOD of V Mars may be less than it is in a theater, is there a point where someone says “F- That! I’m not paying an extra $6-$7 bucks to watch TV! Especially only one time.” I wonder that in general. Who buys VOD? There are movies I hate I missed in the theaters and wouldn’t mind seeing as VOD but why pay an extra $4-$5 when it’ll be on cable or netflix in a month or two? Even if there’s a chance it won’t be available I have to cap what I’ll shell out for in home ent. Funny I know. I would’ve paid more to see it in a theater but then when it’s on VOD I get all principled.

    I think I’d be better served knowing more of the arthouse films that are available. I may see some ads for the big budget action movies that are on VOD. Which, had to be excited for something that I wish I had seen on the big screen. But I didn’t know V Mars was on VOD. That’d be something I’d try to get a couple of people over to watch and have like a dinner party. I saw In The Loop on VOD years ago. It was part of a technical snafu but without the cable guy there to tell me, I wouldn’t have known it was there. I totally forget to peek in on VOD to see what’s there. There’s still the chance that I’d spend the time, money and effort going to see a matinee of the film but it could be a nice alternative if I am reminded or informed of it.

  13. Hallick says:

    I haven’t stayed in a hotel for a while, but when did in-room movies get to the $17.99 price point? Not just the movies that are “still in theaters”, but even stuff that you can get from a Redbox across the street for a fraction of that price. Eighteen bucks for one video isn’t even close to an impulse purchase for me.

    And for the travellers who’d be all up in the “Adults Only” stuff, they can just wifi their way onto the net for an “all you can beat” smorgasbord of mature entertainment for less than half of that charge here.

  14. Hallick says:

    “Who buys VOD? There are movies I hate I missed in the theaters and wouldn’t mind seeing as VOD but why pay an extra $4-$5 when it’ll be on cable or netflix in a month or two? Even if there’s a chance it won’t be available I have to cap what I’ll shell out for in home ent. Funny I know. I would’ve paid more to see it in a theater but then when it’s on VOD I get all principled.”

    Y’know, I never really thought about it this way, but I’ve felt something along these lines for a while now. I’m perfectly fine missing a movie and waiting for it to come out on a cheaper platform now because I have so damn much other stuff just in places like my Netflix queue that it isn’t like I can’t find something else good to watch while I wait. It’s one thing to miss out on a movie in theaters, but once you’re already at the level of seeing it on TV, there is just no urgency anymore because I’m hip deep in a “Breaking Bad” catch-up anyway.

  15. movieman says:

    The standard price for a VOD title “before it plays theaters” is $9.99; $6.99 once it officially goes D&D.
    I rarely pay the top price. It has to be something I’m really chomping at the bits to see (e.g., “Nymphomaniac”). Otherwise, I’ll just wait a few weeks for the “rental fee” to drop.
    Yeah, it’s a pain in the ass to wade through an endless litany of alphabetized On Demand titles. But if there’s a movie you absolutely, positively have to see
    NOW, it’s pretty much the only option in flyover states like mine.

  16. cadavra says:

    “I haven’t stayed in a hotel for a while, but when did in-room movies get to the $17.99 price point?”

    About the same time a 6-oz. bottle of Coca-Cola hit $7.50.

  17. brack says:

    If you have DirecTV, you can’t help but know what’s on VOD. DirecTV Cinema has Veronica Mars advertised in that section of the guide.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
The Purge: Anarchy 12.9 2806 NEW 12.9
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 10.4 3969 -62% 113.4
Planes: Fire & Rescue 6.3 3826 NEW 6.3
Sex Tape 5.6 3062 NEW 5.6
Transformers: Age of Extinction 2.7 3224 -45% 219.9
Tammy 2.3 3402 -45% 65.9
22 Jump Street 1.4 2229 -31% 177.2
How to Train Your Dragon 2 1.1 2169 -40% 157.9
Earth to Echo 1 2450 -44% 29.7
Maleficent 0.9 1541 -27% 226
Also Debuting
Persecuted 0.31 736
Wish I Was Here 0.15 68
Velaiyilla Pattathari 61,800 31
Mood Indigo 10,400 2
There's No Place Like Utopia 10,300 1
I Origins 9,500 4
A Five Star Life 4,000 1
Alive Inside 3,600 1
An American in Hollywood 2,750 4
Among Ravens 2,000 4
Video Games 1,700 6
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office