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By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by 3 Days To Klady

Weekend Estimates lg 2014-02-23 at 10.36.26 AM

Historically, the only 1st Quarter movies to get to $150m faster than The Lego Movie were The Hunger Games, The Passion of the Christ, Oz The Great & Powerful, and Alice in Wonderland. $200m should come next Friday or Saturday, pushing it ahead of Alice on the speed clock to that landmark. Lego is actually well ahead of Frozen‘s 3rd wide weekend cume, will be ahead again after its 4th weekend, but will probably fall back to even with Frozen because Frozen‘s 5th weekend was Christmas/New Years week, in which it actually grew 45%. So Lego will not likely reach the $350m+/potentially $400m+ range of Frozen or come close to The Hunger Games‘ $408m or even the The Passion‘s $371m domestic, but has a real shot at catching/passing Alice in Wonderland‘s $335m domestic to become the 3rd biggest Q1 movie in history. That’s not nothing. In fact, it’s as huge as the hype. Perhaps more huge. Sue Kroll and WB Marketing proves once again that when they have a movie that catches the zeitgeist, they can hit it way, way out of the park.

Speaking of zeitgeist, Frozen passed Despicable Me 2 this weekend to not only become the #1 animated film of 2013 and the #3 domestic release of 2013, but has gotten there with enough steam to make a run at the Top 2 domestic box office grossers of 2013 (Iron Man 3 and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire).

Don’t be surprised if The Oscars opens with Ellen DeGeneres doing a Frozen bit… maybe with a bow and arrow from Hunger Games to boot.

I don’t think I mentioned when it happened that American Hustle is now David O. Russell’s highest-grossing domestic movie (and will likely be his biggest worldwide as well). The Wolf of Wall Street is Scorsese’s biggest worldwide hit and will not likely be his top domestic grosser (still $20m behind The Departed). Gravity is Alfonso Cuarón’s biggest domestic hit, beating out his Harry Potter movie by $20 million so far (and will never catch Potter‘s $65m ww advantage). 12 Years A Slave is now a $119 million worldwide grosser, easily Steve McQueen’s biggest in all territories. Captain Phillips has done more than double what any Paul Greengrass movie not called Bourne has done worldwide and triple domestically. So if you add some perspective to the Oscar group, the numbers look even better.

Have I mentioned 3 Days To Kill or Pompeii yet? No. Well, why would I?

On the arthouse circuit, the two winners were The Wind Rises and Elaine Stritch: Shoot Me with estimated/reported per-screens between $12k and $14k.

17 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by 3 Days To Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    The only problem for LEGO, if you really can call it a problem, is it isn’t really sticking overseas, which is weird, because for some reason I thought Legos were popular all over the world. So it’ll probably end up with the gross of “Rio” or on the high end, “The Croods” worldwide. Not bad by any means especially with the low budget, but not a phenomenon like “Frozen” on the global level, or even the “Ice Age” sequels.

    Also, “HOBBIT 2″ might still have a shot at $1 billion worldwide. If the rest of its Chinese run matches its massive opening on the lines of the first movie, and it has a similar rise in Japan, it would be really close. No franchise has three separate $1 billion films. LOTR, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Star Wars, Pirates of the Caribbean and Batman all have two.

  2. movieman says:

    I’m not surprised that “Endless Love” collapsed this weekend (WOM couldn’t have been very good), but a comparable plummet for “ALN” is
    mildly perplexing.
    Could opening weekend audiences have really hated it that much?
    Kind of hard to believe since it’s lightly likable fluff.
    Even the worst Tyler Perry movies have had better second weekend holds.

  3. Fitzerald says:

    A bad drop, to be sure, but an outsized Valentine’s Day skews things.

  4. movieman says:

    You’d almost think there was a federal law outlawing anyone from seeing last weekend’s openers after President’s Day.

  5. Fitzerald says:

    Obama!!!

  6. jesse says:

    Lego hitting $200 million… well, at any point before this week does NOT in fact put it “ahead of Alice” on the speed clock, though. Alice had an $84 million second weekend and had almost $100 million more than Lego through this point in its run. Lego could very well hold on better and make it close to Alice’s final gross, but it’s not running ahead of it yet.

  7. Geoff says:

    Jesse, Alice had about $64 million in its second weekend and then $34 million in its third weekend….just looked it up at Box Office Mojo. At this point, Alice is about $80 million ahead which is probably too much to catch but it had much weaker word of mouth and its drops were much steeper….I’m guessing that Lego doesn’t catch it, but I can see it just getting over $300 million if Peabody and Sherman doesn’t completely clobber it in a couple of weeks.

    It IS interesting that the international is not as strong, BUT….Frozen has been dominating overseas the past several weeks and I’m guessing that Warners should have waited a little longer to roll it out overseas. Still this could end up doing over $650 million worldwide easily which is not as much as Frozen, but keep in mind it also cost less than half as much too. Which is perplexing…how the hell did this movie only cost $60 million???

    Regardless, Warners knows that opening the sequel Memorial Day the next time around could easily get it an Despicable or Ice Age-sized international expansion and there’s no reason they can’t come closer to a billion worldwide with the sequel. But I have to think that Warners is going to find other avenues to capitalize on this BEFORE 2017…..do they have ownership over all of the direct-to-home Lego titles?

  8. EtGuild2 says:

    $650 mil for LEGO seems like a stretch with PEABODY adopting such an agressive rollout though the latter is bound to be the loser overall. Mr. Sherman expands to Germany, Central Europe, Brazil and Mexico next weekend with 75% percent of the globe covered by the following week. Unfortunately, Fox can’t push back PEABODY because Blue Sky’s “Rio 2″ starts opening March 20.

    “Frozen” has kind of put a damper on overseas animation prospects for the spring releases, also evidenced by the fact Dreamworks hasn’t reported weekend results for “Peabody” yet. LEGO annihilated it in the UK last weekend, and doubled “Peabody’s” debut in France from last weekend in its own opening this weekend. Yikes. Dreamworks might want to re-think the 3-movies a year thing if it’s too crowded in a year without Pixar, especially with Fox going nuts handling Blue Sky and now apparently Reel FX’s (the studio that did “Free Birds”) new movie this Fall. At least “Dragon 2″ is up next.

  9. jesse says:

    Oh, yeah, sorry, that was an $84 million second full week for Alice, not the second weekend. Even so: not as if Alice suffered enormous drops that makes it super-likely Lego will catch up. For a movie that a certain segment of the internet likes to believe everyone despised, it fell over 50% all of twice in its dozen or so weekends as a wide release. Alice’s 46% second-weekend drop off of a $116 million opening is pretty decent.

    Not that it matters that much. I loved Lego and it deserves the $300 million and change it’s cruising towards. Just weird how loose DP can be with numbers sometimes.

    And yeah, I’m shocked DreamWorks thought they could sustain two cartoons a year (which is how it’s shaking out so far), let alone three (which seems to be the tentative plan going forward), especially with Disney and Pixar and BlueSky and Illumination and various other programmer slot-filler upstarts. Maybe if DreamWorks had a little more variety in their style beyond making the occasional Chris Sanders movie (Dragon, Croods) that’s actually decent, and/or the occasional celeb-filled comedy that isn’t as bad as it could have been (Megamind, Madagascar 3).

  10. Geoff says:

    THIS SUMMER is why Fox took on Dreamworks….if they can’t get ‘Dragon to over $700 million worldwide with the only animated competition from a ‘Planes sequel, then it wasn’t worth it….that film has the potential to be HUGE.

    But animated sequels just seem SO hit-or-miss it’s hard to tell….for every Despicable Me 2, there seems to be a Kung Fu Panda 2 and there just seems to be no relationship to quality or reviews at all. I mean Happy Feet 2 seemed damn surefire and it couldn’t even break $100 million domestic??

  11. EtGuild2 says:

    That’s true re: “Dragon” though they lucked out since there was going to be a Pixar movie about Dinosaurs due Memorial Day. “Dragon” would have been the heavyweight regardless, but that would have been some really direct competition.

    “Panda 2″ did manage to outgross the first due to overseas, but yeah you’re probably right, they are hoping for some ICE AGE 2-4 numbers for “Dragon,” the “Panda” sequels and “Madagascar” spin-off. IMO Fox should have moved DRAGON back to Memorial Day once Pixar left town, and moved “Rio 2″ to July both to avoid competition with PEABODY/LEGO and to have a movie set in Rio De Janeiro during the World Cup during the time, you know, there’s a World Cup in Rio wrapping up.

  12. Hcat says:

    I thought panda 2 actually increased worldwide over panda. The fact that it didn’t open to #1 was more about scheduling than it was about quality or interest. As for fox aren’t some profits guaranteed as simply the distributor?

  13. EtGuild2 says:

    @Hcat, very likely though not necessarily. They collect 8% of Dreamworks’ box office and DVD/Blu-Ray revenue, and 6% of Digital/VOD rev which is lower than under Paramount. Since Fox pays for marketing, which is usually a $100 million worldwide effort for big movies like this, there’s a good chance they lose money on a flick like “Turbo.”

  14. hcat says:

    Does anyone know if it is Fox or Dreamworks that chooses the dates? Just that even though they had a thriving animation department (and a ton of live action family film success) I can see why Fox would bring in DWA if only because it would be better to have them on their team than be competing against them.

  15. amblinman says:

    Goodbye, Harold Ramis. And thank you for contributing to so much happiness during the course of your career.

  16. Dr Wally Rises says:

    ‘Do you have any hobbies?’ ‘I collect spores, moulds and fungus’.

  17. chris says:

    I’d say there was a correlation between quality and box office for “Happy Feet 2,” Geoff. It was godawful and cynical.

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The Hot Blog

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Lucy 17 3173 NEW 17
Hercules 11 3595 NEW 11
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 4.7 3668 -55% 160.4
The Purge: Anarchy 3.4 2856 -65% 44.8
Planes: Fire & Rescue 2.8 3839 -57% 28.6
Sex Tape 1.9 3062 -68% 22.8
And So It Goes 1.3 1762 NEW 1.3
Transformers: Age of Extinction 1.3 2476 -54% 233
Tammy 1.1 2562 -54% 75.8
22 Jump Street 0.8 1613 -46% 183.9
Also Debuting
A Most Wanted Man 0.71 361
The Fluffy Movie 0.51 432
Kick 0.37 179
Magic in the Moonlight 0.12 17
She's Dating the Gangster 70,000 46
Alludu Seenu 29,100 86
The Divine Move 13,000 11
Happy Christmas 4,150 4
A Master Builder 3,100 2
Thirumanam Ennum Nikkah 2,800 13
Eyjafjallajokull 1,800 4
Come Back to Me 1,500 8
A Letter to Momo 1,100 1
Very Good Girls 1,100 9
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office