Gurus o’ Gold: Last Stand Before Nominations

gurus-bp-950_011314

Rank Last Chart Best Picture BreznicanEllwoodHammondHarrisHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 1 12 Years A Slave
2 3 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 15 142
2 3 American Hustle
1 2 1 3 1 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 15 136
3 2 Gravity
3 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 15 126
4 4 Captain Phillips
7 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 15 99
5 5 Nebraska
4 5 5 7 6 5 4 8 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 15 83
6 9 The Wolf of Wall Street
6 10 6 5 8 6 6 3 8 7 5 5 8 6 5 15 71
7 t10 Dallas Buyers Club
9 7 9 9 5 8 8 9 7 6 9 7 7 7 7 15 51
8 7 Her
8 8 6 9 7 7 6 8 7 9 6 8 12 43
9 t10 Philomena
10 6 7 10 9 5 9 8 10 10 10 26
10 8 Saving Mr. Banks
8 10 8 10 10 10 9 8 9 10 9 11 20
6 Inside Llewyn Davis
7 10 9 7 10 5 12
Blue Jasmine
9 10 10 9 4 6
One Vote Wonders
t10 Lee Daniels' The Butler
10 1 1

Dropping off the chart: August: Osage County, Fruitvale Station

The Gurus are offering their opinions about possible surprises on nominations morning. These guesses are slightly skewed by each Guru’s definition of what would be a surprise and what would not. So, if a Guru expects an actor to be nominated, the actor getting nominated is not a surprise to them. Likewise, if they don’t expect someone to be nominated. And so forth…

Rank Last Chart Surprisingly In - Picture BreznicanEllwoodHammondHarrisHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
Philomena
* * * 1 * * 6 6
None
* * * 3 3
Blue Jasmine
* * 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Inside Llewyn Davis
* 1 1
Rush
* 1 1
All Is Lost
* 1 1
Lee Daniels' The Butler
* 1 1

Rank Last Chart Suprisingly Out - Picture BreznicanEllwoodHammondHarrisHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
Saving Mr. Banks
* * * * * 5 5
The Wolf of Wall Street
* * * 3 3
Blue Jasmine
* * 2 2
None
* * 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Philomena
* 1 1
Inside Llewyn Davis
* 1 1
Lee Daniels' The Butler
* 1 1
Rank Last Chart Surprisingly In - Actor BreznicanEllwoodHammondHarrisHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
Leonardo DiCaprio
The Wolf of Wall Street
* * * * * 5 5
Joaquin Phoenix
Her
* * * * 4 4
None
* * * * 4 4
Christian Bale
American Hustle
* * 2 2
Rank Last Chart Suprisingly Out - Actor BreznicanEllwoodHammondHarrisHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
Robert Redord
All Is Lost
* * * * * * * * * * * * * 13 13
One Vote Wonders
Leonardo DiCaprio
The Wolf of Wall Street
* 1 1
Matthew McConaughey
Dallas Buyers Club
* 1 1
Rank Last Chart Surprsingly In - Actress BreznicanEllwoodHammondHarrisHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
Amy Adams
American Hustle
* * * * * * * 7 7
None
* * * * * * 6 6
Adele Exarchopoulos
Blue Is The Warmest Color
* * 2 2
Rank Last Chart Suprisingly Out - Actress BreznicanEllwoodHammondHarrisHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
Meryl Streep
August: Osage County
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 15 15
Rank Last Chart Surpringly In - Sppt Actor BreznicanEllwoodHammondHarrisHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
Jonah Hill
The Wolf of Wall Street
* * * * 4 4
None
* * 2 2
Wil Forte
Nebraska
* * 2 2
James Gandolfini
Enough Said
* * 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Bradley Cooper
American Hustle
* 1 1
John Goodman
Inside Llewyn Davis
* 1 1
George Clooney
Gravity
* 1 1
Matthew McConaughey
The Wolf of Wall Street
* 1 1
Tom Hanks
Saving Mr Banks
* 1 1
Rank Last Chart Suprisingly Out - Supporting Actor BreznicanEllwoodHammondHarrisHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
None
* * * * * * 6 6
Daniel Bruhl
Rush
* * * * * 5 5
Tom Hanks
Savng Mr. Banks
* * 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Michael Fassbender
12 Years A Slave
* 1 1
James Gandolfini
Enough Said
* 1 1
Rank Last Chart Surprisingly In - Sppt Actress BreznicanEllwoodHammondHarrisHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
Sally Hawkins
Blue Jasmine
* * * * * * 6 6
None
* * * * * 5 5
Octavia Spencer
* * 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Jennifer Garner
Dalas Buyers Club
* 1 1
MArgot Robbie
The Wolf of Wall Street
* 1 1
Rank Last Chart Suprisingly Out - Supporting Actress BreznicanEllwoodHammondHarrisHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
Oprah Winfrey
The Butler
* * * * * * 6 6
None
* * * * * * 6 6
Julia Roberts
August: Osage County
* * * 3 3
Rank Last Chart Surprsingly In- Animated Feature BreznicanEllwoodHammondHarrisHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
None
* * * * * * * * * 9 9
Ernest & Celestine
* * 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Epic
* 1 1
Turbo
* 1 1
Despicable Me 2
* 1 1
Monsters University
* 1 1
Rank Last Chart Suprisingly Out - Animated Feature BreznicanEllwoodHammondHarrisHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
None
* * * * * * * * * * 10 10
Despicable Me 2
* * 2 2
One Vote Wonders
The Wind Rises
* 1 1
Monsters University
* 1 1
The Croods
* 1 1
Rank Last Chart Surprisingly In - Director BreznicanEllwoodHammondHarrisHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
Spike Jonze
Her
* * * * * 5 5
None
* * * * 4 4
Woody Allen
Blue Jasmine
* * 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Paolo Sorrentino
The Great Beauty
* 1 1
Ryan Coogler
Fruitvale Station
* 1 1
Alexander Payne
Nebraska
* 1 1
Stephen Frears
Philomena
* 1 1
Rank Last Chart Suprisingly Out - Director BreznicanEllwoodHammondHarrisHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
Paul Greengrass
Captain Phillips
* * * * * * 6 6
Martin Scorsese
The Wolf of Wall Street
* * * * 4 4
None
* * * 3 3
One Vote Wonders
David O. Russell
American Hustle
* 1 1
Alexander Payne
Nebraska
* 1 1
Rank Last Chart Will Any Globes Wins Influence Eventual Oscar Wins? BreznicanEllwoodHammondHarrisHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneTapleyThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
No
* * * * * * * * * 9 9
Leonardo DiCaprio
The Wolf of Wall Street
* * 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Lupita Nyong'o
12 Years A Slave
* 1 1
American Hustle
* 1 1

9 Responses to “Gurus o’ Gold: Last Stand Before Nominations”

  1. Henry R. Schrader says:

    Karger is ridiculous putting Clooney in his “suprisingly in”s

  2. Walter Prado says:

    BEST MOTION PICTURE:

    12 Years a Slave
    American Hustle
    Gravity
    Captain Phillips
    Nebraska
    Her
    Inside Llewyn Davis
    The Wolf of Wall Street
    Saving Mr. Banks

    > The Butler

    >> Dallas Buyers Club

    BEST DIRECTING:

    Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
    David O. Russell, American Hustle
    Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
    Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
    Spike Jonze, Her

    > Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

    BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

    Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
    Bruce Dern, Nebraska
    Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
    Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
    Robert Redford, All is Lost

    > Forest Whitaker, The Butler

    BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

    Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
    Judi Dench, Philomena
    Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
    Brie Larson, Short Term 12
    Sandra Bullock, Gravity

    > Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

    BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

    Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
    Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
    Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
    Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
    Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks

    > Daniel Brühl, Rush

    BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

    Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
    June Squibb, Nebraska
    Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
    Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
    Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

    > Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

    American Hustle, David O. Russell & Eric Singer
    Her, Spike Jonze
    Nebraska, Bob Nelson
    Blue Jasmine, Woody Allen
    Inside Llewyn Davis, Ethan Coen & Joel Coen

    > Dallas Buyers Club, Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

    12 Years a Slave, Steve McQueen & John Ridley
    Philomena, Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope
    Captain Phillips, Billy Ray
    Before Midnight, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater
    The Wolf of Wall Street, Terence Winter

    > August: Osage County, Tracy Letts

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

    The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin & Beverley Dunn
    12 Years a Slave, Adam Stockhausen & Alice Baker
    Gravity, Andy Nicholson & Rosie Goodwin
    The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Dan Hennah & Ra Vincent
    American Hustle, Judy Becker & Heather Loeffler

    > Saving Mr. Banks, Michael Corenblith & Susan Benjamin

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

    Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki
    Inside Llewyn Davis, Bruno Delbonnel
    12 Years a Slave, Sean Bobbitt
    Prisoners, Roger Deakins
    To the Wonder, Emmanuel Lubezki

    > Nebraska, Phedon Papamichael

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

    The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin
    12 Years a Slave, Patricia Norris
    Saving Mr. Banks, Daniel Orlandi
    American Hustle, Michael Wilkinson
    The Invisible Woman, Michael O’Connor

    > Oz the Great and Powerful, Gary Jones

    BEST FILM EDITING:

    Gravity, Alfonso Cuarón & Mark Sanger
    12 Years a Slave, Joe Walker
    Captain Phillips, Christopher Rouse
    American Hustle, Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers
    The Wolf of Wall Street, Thelma Schoonmaker

    > Rush, Dan Hanley & Mike Hill

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:

    American Hustle
    Dallas Buyers Club
    The Great Gatsby

    > The Lone Ranger

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

    12 Years a Slave, Hans Zimmer
    Gravity, Steven Price
    Saving Mr. Banks, Thomas Newman
    The Book Thief, John Williams
    Captain Phillips, Henry Jackman

    > All is Lost, Alex Ebert

    BEST SOUND MIXING:

    Gravity
    Captain Phillips
    Rush
    Inside Llewyn Davis
    All is Lost

    > The Great Gatsby

    BEST SOUND EDITING:

    Gravity
    Captain Phillips
    Rush
    All is Lost
    Man of Steel

    > Elysium

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

    Gravity
    The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
    Iron Man 3
    Pacific Rim
    Star Trek Into Darkness

    > Elysium

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

    “Let It Go”, Frozen
    “Young and Beautiful”, The Great Gatsby
    “Ordinary Love”, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
    “The Moon Song”, Her
    “Amen”, All is Lost

    > “So You Know What It’s Like”, Short Term 12

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:

    The Wind Rises
    Frozen
    Monsters University
    Ernest & Celestine
    The Croods

    > Despicable Me 2

    BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

    The Great Beauty (Italy)
    The Hunt (Denmark)
    The Grandmaster (Hong Kong)
    The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
    The Missing Picture (Cambodia)

    > Omar (Palestine)

  3. spassky says:

    I loved it, but no way in hell Academy will recognize “Short Term 12″ (hell, “Fruitvale” will most likely be completely snubbed)… I wish the Indie Spirits were actually rewarding these small films that receive little to no recognition by AMPAS. Of course, “Short Term 12″ was recognized by Indie Spirits noms, but I will almost be surprised if they give any of the big awards out to the film. Hopefully, it will at least go to Delpy, because AMPAS is so full of fucking shit, that I would be floored if “Before Midnight” even got a paltry Best Original Screenplay nom.

    This is a great year for film, and yet it’s the same old bullshit at AMPAS. Yeah, great, give Robert Redford something, wonderful (what did William Goldman say? something like “you could have put any pretty blond dude from Malibu in ‘Barefoot in the Park’ and made a star”) — “All is Lost” is utter shit compared to the great films of this year, it really is. And if Dern gets snubbed in favor of Redford, well then every level of self-congratulatory recognition is for nothing. Like, we all deal with this oligarchic crap in the academy just so a guy like Dern can get an award, or at least a nom…

    Sorry for rant, but it just seems like the awards season gets so unneccessarily whorey in a year where there’s so much good product.

  4. Walter Prado says:

    MY FINAL PREDICTIONS:

    BEST MOTION PICTURE:

    12 Years a Slave
    American Hustle
    Gravity
    Captain Phillips
    Nebraska
    Her
    Inside Llewyn Davis
    The Wolf of Wall Street
    Saving Mr. Banks

    > The Butler

    >> Dallas Buyers Club

    BEST DIRECTING:

    Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
    David O. Russell, American Hustle
    Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
    Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
    Spike Jonze, Her

    > Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

    BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

    Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
    Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
    Bruce Dern, Nebraska
    Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
    Robert Redford, All is Lost

    > Forest Whitaker, The Butler

    BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

    Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
    Judi Dench, Philomena
    Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
    Brie Larson, Short Term 12
    Sandra Bullock, Gravity

    > Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

    BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

    Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
    Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
    Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
    Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
    Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks

    > Daniel Brühl, Rush

    BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

    Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
    June Squibb, Nebraska
    Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
    Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
    Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

    > Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

    American Hustle, David O. Russell & Eric Singer
    Her, Spike Jonze
    Nebraska, Bob Nelson
    Blue Jasmine, Woody Allen
    Inside Llewyn Davis, Ethan Coen & Joel Coen

    > Dallas Buyers Club, Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

    12 Years a Slave, Steve McQueen & John Ridley
    Philomena, Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope
    Captain Phillips, Billy Ray
    The Wolf of Wall Street, Terence Winter
    Before Midnight, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater

    > August: Osage County, Tracy Letts

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

    The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin & Beverley Dunn
    12 Years a Slave, Adam Stockhausen & Alice Baker
    Gravity, Andy Nicholson & Rosie Goodwin
    The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Dan Hennah & Ra Vincent
    American Hustle, Judy Becker & Heather Loeffler

    > Saving Mr. Banks, Michael Corenblith & Susan Benjamin

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

    Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki
    Inside Llewyn Davis, Bruno Delbonnel
    12 Years a Slave, Sean Bobbitt
    Prisoners, Roger Deakins
    To the Wonder, Emmanuel Lubezki

    > Nebraska, Phedon Papamichael

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

    The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin
    12 Years a Slave, Patricia Norris
    Saving Mr. Banks, Daniel Orlandi
    American Hustle, Michael Wilkinson
    The Invisible Woman, Michael O’Connor

    > Oz the Great and Powerful, Gary Jones

    BEST FILM EDITING:

    Gravity, Alfonso Cuarón & Mark Sanger
    12 Years a Slave, Joe Walker
    Captain Phillips, Christopher Rouse
    American Hustle, Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers
    The Wolf of Wall Street, Thelma Schoonmaker

    > Rush, Dan Hanley & Mike Hill

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:

    American Hustle
    Dallas Buyers Club
    The Great Gatsby

    > The Lone Ranger

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

    Gravity, Steven Price
    12 Years a Slave, Hans Zimmer
    Saving Mr. Banks, Thomas Newman
    The Book Thief, John Williams
    Captain Phillips, Henry Jackman

    > All is Lost, Alex Ebert

    BEST SOUND MIXING:

    Gravity
    Captain Phillips
    Inside Llewyn Davis
    Rush
    All is Lost

    > The Great Gatsby

    BEST SOUND EDITING:

    Gravity
    Captain Phillips
    Lone Survivor
    Rush
    Iron Man 3

    > All is Lost

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

    Gravity
    The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
    Iron Man 3
    Pacific Rim
    Star Trek Into Darkness

    > Elysium

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

    “Let It Go”, Frozen
    “Young and Beautiful”, The Great Gatsby
    “Ordinary Love”, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
    “The Moon Song”, Her
    “Amen”, All is Lost

    > “So You Know What It’s Like”, Short Term 12

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:

    Frozen
    The Wind Rises
    Monsters University
    Ernest & Celestine
    The Croods

    > Despicable Me 2

    BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

    The Great Beauty (Italy)
    The Hunt (Denmark)
    The Grandmaster (Hong Kong)
    The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
    The Missing Picture (Cambodia)

    > Omar (Palestine)

  5. pj says:

    How could Nyongo’o's win influence oscar if she did not win? But glad to see Hustle rise all the way up to 2nd.

  6. nathaniel r says:

    pj — i meant that her loss could influence oscar voters because most people seemed to be upset by it. but i guess there’s no way to show that on a chart like this.

  7. Sam says:

    “(what did William Goldman say? something like “you could have put any pretty blond dude from Malibu in ‘Barefoot in the Park’ and made a star”)”

    A star that would last as a fad for a couple years, sure. But for that person to be a working legend 47 years later, he’d have to be the real deal.

    That said, I don’t disagree with your preference for seeing Dern nominated. Dern has been solid and great for so many years and not generally been recognized for it. Redford has had no shortage of accolades. I do see Dern’s nomination as more secure than Redford’s, though, and a decent chance that both will be nominated.

  8. Kozy Jerzinski says:

    “(what did William Goldman say? something like “you could have put any pretty blond dude from Malibu in ‘Barefoot in the Park’ and made a star”)”

    Only story I remember Goldman telling along those lines was when he made fun of a studio executive who dismissed Redford with “Throw a stick at Malibu, you’ll hit six of him.”

  9. Doah says:

    You guys are great, really! Look at the top 9 pictures! You all nailed it! And, the Gurus’ 10th picture, SAVING MR. BANKS, didn’t make it. Really love this site. I especially like Tapley’s podcast.

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