By David Poland firstname.lastname@example.org
Friday Estimates by Still Smaugy Klady
Hobbit 2 is behind Hobbit 1 by $19 million domestic after 9 days. Amazingly, the spread between Rings 1 and Rings 2 after 8 days was $22 million. Given the scope of the numbers, quite close. It is true. We have seen Hunger Games 2 out $45 million ahead of Hunger 1 in 8 days this year, so there can be an uptick with a second film, but the slight drop is pretty normal (see also: Harry Potter 2 off $35m domestic as of Day 8).
In other words, massive hit… relax… all is well.
A good start for Anchorman 2, though again, not as good as the original ($10.8m opening day). And again, December is a major factor. The first Anchorman opening in July, where opening numbers are much bigger in general. Of the Top 3 December comedies, the two that are Fockers films opened on a Wednesday. The first sequel to Meet The Parents, Meet The Fockers, was about $10 million ahead of Anchorman 2 as of Friday. The second sequel, Little Fockers, was about $2.6 million behind A2. That one went to $148 million domestic. And the word of mouth on Anchorman 2 is considerably better than on Li’l Fockers. So…
Also… I love the new Oscar campaign logo from Paramount for Anchorman 2…
Not a beautiful picture for Walking With Dinosaurs. In terms of the box office chart, this young-demo film may well move up into the Top 5 by the end of the weekend. Of course, box office rank is the perhaps the single most inaccurate analysis of success that there is, so who cares? Even if they get to a $10 million weekend, it’s not a happy number for Fox. Just two words…. Fat Albert. Two more… the movie.
Strong expansion for American Hustle, given that it isn’t a straight opening play, but an awards play… meaning that it has some natural strengtheners coming up that a straight December release does not.
Much less happy will be Team Saving Mr. Banks, which has revved its engines loudly for a month to get a rather soft opening versus hopes. Ironically, the same numbers for Inside Llewyn Davis—which should have been on today’s chart because it was expanding to 148 screens and is estimated to have done about $300k by Box Office Mojo)—would be seen as a success by many. Perception is a harsh mistress.
Thor 2 will hit $200m domestic today.