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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Effie Trinket

Weekend Estimates 2013-11-24 at 10.43.58 AM

An $8.6 million increase over the first film… 6%… amazingly enough, incremental growth on opening weekend.

Don’t get me wrong… discussed this in depth yesterday… it’s a healthy monster. It’s just not expanding in a significant way.

There was a $125m “deficit” in foreign against domestic on the first Hunger Games. This weekend, internationally, suggests that the rest of the world is now hooked in and we can expect at least 50/50 this time, which would mean at least $125m increase in worldwide when all is said and done. So it may well be an $800 million franchise, not a $700 million franchise.

Oh yeah… and Hunger Games is $8 million behind Thor… well, Thor‘s domestic cume.

NOW… did anything else happen this box office weekend?

ADD (12:06p): Frozen. At Disney/Pacific’s El Capitan. Massive number, pretty close to sold out all weekend, though with ticket prices in the $25 range.

Free Birds had the best hold on the top of the charts… but it’s still a rather soft number, which will be Frozen out later this week.

There are nine awards hopefuls in the Top 25, though none in the top 7 (outside of effects hopes). At top, still, is Gravity with $3.2 million. It’s immediately followed by 12 Years A Slave and Dallas Buyers Club, then Ender’s Game followed by Captain Phillips (passing $100m this weekend). Under $1m for the weekend, The Book Thief, All Is Lost, Nebraska, Enough Said, and Blue Is the Warmest Color.

Nice tiny opening for Philomena. Doesn’t assure anything, though I think this will be a favorite for older audiences for months to come.

19 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Effie Trinket”

  1. movieman says:

    “Ender’s Game” is an “awards hopeful”?

  2. EtGuild2 says:

    The other big story is probably the sensational China opening for GRAVITY. With Japan still to go, it’s now assured of being the biggest worldwide “original” since INCEPTION, and MAN OF STEEL’s $662 million gross may not be safe. If GRAVITY passes it, it would make it the 3rd biggest non-sequal/prequel ever for Warner Bros, behind the first Potter and INCEPTION.

    Also, some people were pegging this weekend as having a shot for the overall weekend record of $249 million, but CATCHING FIRE sucked out the air to such an extent that it didn’t come very close. It also means that 2013 is going to be playing catch up with 2012 in the yearly domestic comparison the rest of the year, and is probably a slight underdog to overtake last year.

  3. thatguy says:

    “Oh yeah… and Hunger is $8 million behind Thor… well, Thor’s domestic cume.”

    See, this is an example of why people think you have an axe to grind about Marvel movies. What you pointed out is literally true, but there’s no point to phrasing it that way other than to belittle Marvel Studio’s accomplishment. You profess irritation with the pettiness of others but you constantly make little unmotivated jabs like that.

  4. movieman says:

    there’s no point to phrasing it that way other than to belittle Marvel Studio’s accomplishment.

    Boo-hoo.
    For crissakes, Guy.
    I think the Marvel Corp. can take a little harmless snark.

  5. amblinman says:

    I think critics are inundated with so much garbage now they go absolutely bonkers batshit over any movie that’s even remotely okay, which Catching Fire is the definition of. The film is simply not bad. The rave reviews seem so out of sync with the actual movie.

    And she’s a pretty girl but Jennifer Lawrence has one of the most nondescript faces I’ve ever seen on a young, major movie star.

  6. Joe Straatmann says:

    I saw the first one and thought it was bland, vanilla, and rather harmless, which a movie of its subject matter shouldn’t be. I know it’s for people much younger than me, but the reality show knocks were as obvious and blatant as a slap to the face. Beyond removing shaky cam, I don’t think any of the follow ups will be for me either.

  7. leahnz says:

    jlaw rocks as katniss – and great to see some good big flicks with chicks in the lead at the cinema, about bloody time, if you build it they will come. i took a gaggle of teens to a hunger games/catching fire double feat yesterday and they dug the hell out of it and i thoroughly enjoyed this ‘catching fire’ installment, more bling and theme and subtext for your buck than the first, which i found endearingly tinpot; the series continues to be relevant social commentary for young people today faced with the particular challenges of a ‘reality tv’ saturated voyeuristic culture as well the old-as-the-hills evils of facism, classism, racism – and probably some other isms if i thought about it harder – and savage bloodlust that continue to plague humanity, wrapped in a candy-coloured spectacle with some dark undertones and romantic melodrama, tots liked it.

    eta:
    “Boo-hoo.
    For crissakes, Guy.
    I think the Marvel Corp. can take a little harmless snark.”

    haha movieman yeah they can salve their hurt feelings whilst sitting on a mountain of cash, then shoot spitballs at the naysayers at the bottom of the pile whilst laughing their asses off (asses coverd with large denomination bills)

  8. RayBreslin says:

    “The other big story is probably the sensational China opening for GRAVITY…”

    Yeah, this is some real “We Didn’t Start the Fire” shit.

  9. hcat says:

    Have they figured out a way to get that money out of China yet? I hadn’t heard anything about it since summer but there was some logjam about who pays what luxery tax or something and studios were still releasing the movies but none of the money was getting sent back to the states until it was all settled.

    Lawrence may not be impressive on a poster or still shot but I have always found her engaging on camera, even if films I didn’t really care for. Perhaps its because the charecters she plays are so often emotionally guarded.

    ‘I think critics are inundated with so much garbage now they go absolutely bonkers batshit over any movie that’s even remotely okay’

    Or in Argo’s case have awards thrown at it.

  10. hcat says:

    Odd to think that Lionsgate and Dreamworks both started releasing movies at the same time and the tiny arthouse shingle grew incrementaly each year while the MAJOR NEW STUDIO has shrunk into a production company. If there was ever an arguement against Ichan or other investors that state that Lionsgate is not pushing hard enough, this is the weekend to point to.

  11. Chucky says:

    “Inundated with so much garbage” — hah! Critics have devolved into snobs, prudes and quote whores. The most noxious of them is the right-wing hack who writes for Rolling Stone.

  12. christian says:

    On that Chucky approaches sanity. Peter Traver’s quotes are priceless in their desire to find a home on a poster or video release.

  13. palmtree says:

    movieman, I had the same thought. Which award is Ender’s Game up for? Best book a movie is based on?

  14. MarkVH says:

    Don’t even talk to me about Rolling Stone. F**kers spoiled last night’s Boardwalk Empire by posting the big-character-death actor’s name right on the homepage this morning then tweeting it for good measure. They suck SO MUCH.

  15. movieman says:

    Palmtree- Maybe it’s “Best Failed New YA Franchise That At Least Did Better Than ‘The Host,’ ‘Mortal Instruments’ And/Or ‘Beautiful Creatures,’ motherf*****s!”?

  16. EtGuild2 says:

    “Have they figured out a way to get that money out of China yet? I hadn’t heard anything about it since summer but there was some logjam about who pays what luxery tax or something and studios were still releasing the movies but none of the money was getting sent back to the states until it was all settled.”

    I think the studios and the government settled on a 25% take, which isn’t great, but the numbers have become so big (IRON MAN did $121 million, GRAVITY is on pace for at least $75 million) that the raw haul is on par or greater with other nations like the UK or Japan for movies that hit the jackpot there.

    Lionsgate got absolutely clobbered today, down over 10%. People are already clucking nervously about DIVERGENT, and are choosing to ignore the likely 20% worldwide box office expansion for HG.

  17. cadavra says:

    I expect ENDER will be contending in the tech categories, esp. Visual Effects and Sound (though of course GRAVITY will win it all).

  18. LYT says:

    No mention of Doctor Who’s impressive per-screen average for something that was actually being shown on TV at the same time?

  19. YancySkancy says:

    Why aren’t these estimates by “Klady Trinket,” or “Effie Trinklady”?

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