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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Prisoner 347klady38

Weekend Estimates 2013-09-22 at 10.05.35 AM

I’m happy for Team Prisoners, which may not end up having done exactly as high a number as estimates suggest, but still, quite nice and solid throughout the weekend. Solid opening. And now, legs will be the story. It’s a strong movie that works on various levels (though it’s prone to overreach by some critics) and could end up doing a multiple of over 3, maybe even close to 4. The biggest problem for WB right now is that they go up against their own Gravity in 2 weekends followed by Captain Phillips, not to mention Runner Runner, which is a legit entry (with a terrible title) on a date that could turn out to be a really bad choice if all the excitement around Gravity pays off on opening weekend.

There isn’t much worth saying about Screen Gems’ dump Battle of the Year, so let’s talk about Instructions Not Included, which is 14% up this week, now the #5 foreign language grosser of all time in the US and sure to pass the great Pan’s Labyrinth for #4 in the next week. Pretty remarkable. And none of the media heat that Pan’s, Hero, Life Is Beautiful, and Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon got.

There are two big per-screen films at the arthouse; Enough Said and Rush, the first at $59k per and the second at $39k. It’s a great number for the Fox Searchlight film, a dramedy from a director who has never grossed $15m domestic. For Universal, which has a drama with a lot of action from a director who has had some box office smashes, the existence of a 5-screen opening weekend suggests concern. This is the 4th time Universal has done one of these word-of-mouth openings for a Ron Howard film. The history is 2 “flops,” 1 Oscar-winning smash. Of course, this is only the second such open outside of the December awards corridor. And let me note again… terrific, smart, beautiful movie.

13 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Prisoner 347klady38”

  1. movieman says:

    Wow.
    It looks like Harvey Weinstein’s faith in “Salinger” was misplaced.
    The (critically ravaged) doc dropped dead in its expansion this weekend.
    I wonder how long before Harvey cancels that Salinger biopic he announced last week.

  2. pj says:

    At the end of the day, Rush will outgross Enough Said by a large margin. Also, Enough Said is Fox Searchlight.

  3. Etguild2 says:

    Speaking of Sony Classics, where’s Steven Kaye? BLUE JASMINE is now SPC’s #3 grosser of all-time.

    Also, Lee Daniels now has the top grossing non-franchise film ever for a black director, and is behind only Keenan Ivory Wayans (Scary Movie), Tim Story (Fantastic Four 1 and 2) and John Singleton (2 Fast 2 Furious) overall.

  4. David Poland says:

    Yeah… old habits on SPC

  5. LexG says:

    Why does nobody yet realize that We’re the Millers is a possible Best Picture nominee? It could very well be the populist choice at this point.

  6. Bulldog68 says:

    Not in this life LexG. Not in this life. If I had to call a long shot it would be for a comedic performance like Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids. Unfortunately the movie stunk up the joint but John Goodman in Hangover 3 was pretty good. I don’t think it’ll happen but thus far the comedies this year don’t scream surprise Oscar nom to me.

  7. cadavra says:

    Saw IP MAN: THE FINAL FIGHT today, and as I predicted, it was a breath of fresh air after GRANDMASTER. Shot like a movie, not a VFX sizzle reel, characters who express themselves through concise language, not shouted platitudes, fight scenes where you can actually tell what’s going on, fine performances from a mostly youthful cast anchored by the gravitas of Anthony Wong and a cameoing Eric Tsang, and a splendid sense of time and place. And it does rain during one fight scene, but the rain is there as the spice, not the entree. Alas, it does not have the imprimatur of Scorsese and Ellison, so it’s condemned to half-a-screen at the NoHo and will exit with a whimper after Thursday.

  8. SamLowry says:

    So Lex is now channeling Armond White?

    And it’s a twofer, because in Lexworld the Oscar goes to the movie that receives the most calls to a toll-free number!

  9. Hallick says:

    If “We’re The Millers” is somehow nominated for Best Picture, I will personally craw inside Werner Herzog’s bung and eat his old shoe.

  10. Hallick says:

    Because obviously that slot is OWNED by “Identity Thief”.

  11. cadavra says:

    Things that will happen before MILLERS gets a BP nomination:

    Sarah Palin will be elected President.
    The Cubs will win the World Series.
    Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will convert to Judaism.
    I’ll be married to Sofia Vergara.

  12. The Big Perm says:

    Finally saw This is the End. AWESOME.

  13. leahnz says:

    Ha love the comments made by adele and seydoux about the ‘blue is the warmest’ director (can’t remember his name), always refreshing to see the veil lifted by those who are often too scared to speak out about their less than sterling/exploitive experiences – and in so doing so skewering the pearl-clutching critics who pooh-poohed the ‘straight male gaze’ critique of the film (watching the same rush to his defence now should be rather hilarious)

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4