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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by The Kladyrine

Friday Estimates 2013-07-27 at 8.47.35 AM

This is the kind of weekend where box office analysis is kind of a drag.

The Wolverine opened, is dominant in the market… and is just kinda “meh” in the bigger picture. Two summers ago, X-Men: First Class was media-spun as a miss… not a disaster, but not a hit. It opening-dayed to more than The Wolverine. The wildly inferior X-Men Origins: Wolverine opened to a $34.4m Friday.

On the other hand, thanks to Paramount’s brilliant witchcraft, the media bought World War Z‘s $66m opening as a big success. And that film cost at least double what The Wolverine cost to make. So will media Alzheimer’s kick in? Will media forget what it write a month ago and devalue this opening or will it remember its overly generous position of a month ago and not bother to put The Wolverine in context? That’s the only real mystery about its box office this weekend.

Despicable Me 2 continues to hold brilliantly. It will pass $300m domestic today, having passed Man of Steel for the #2 slot for the summer on Wednesday.

Turbo‘s second weekend will be relatively okay… but still stack right next to Epic, but with $5m less. This suggests that $100m domestic is possible for the lawn-loving saga, but just barely. But that still leaves Turbo as the lowest non-Claymation domestic grosser for DWA in the last decade.

In more cheerful news – though it will make some critics claim to want to slit their wrists – Grown Ups 2 puts Adam Sandler back in the $100m club after a couple of setbacks (Jack & Jill, That’s My Boy). It will not match the $162m domestic take that the first Grown Ups earned, but a big part of this story – sure to be underreported – will be the foreign box office, where Sandler has, after years of struggling with this, become a somewhat consistent $100m draw as well. Grown Ups did $109m international. So will the sequel match that, do better, fall back?

Red 2 is a little disturbing to me. I think this film is significantly better than the first, in all the ways the first was likeable. But word of mouth didn’t happen and it is pretty much doornail dead already. $50m domestic would be a happy surprise at this point (compared to $90m the first time out). Maybe it’s just a joke you can only get a laugh with once. But with a soft opening, you expect a better rebound. Didn’t happen.

Pacific Rim is also suffering. No one really wants to be a $200m cult film. And the cult is mighty. But not enough to drive big box office. It doesn’t look like $100m is happening domestically. It’s already over $100m internationally and it’s still early (no Japan, no reporting on 2nd weekend in many big countries), so while there is little hope for black ink, there is real hope that there will not be the mega-writedown some were predicting.

The Lone Ranger is dead domestically. But the math is still waiting on international.

Even deader is R.I.P.D., which at the end of its 2nd Friday is behind the first day of The Wolverine. The film, which cost a little more than half of what Lone Ranger cost, could end up with a similar or even a bigger writedown.

Interesting Friday on the limited side. The least limited of the limiteds, with 1064 screens, is Fruitvale Station, which did a nice $1.4m yesterday in its expansion. A $4000 per-screen for the weekend on over 1000 screens is pretty good. It’s not Indie Blockbuster. Precious did more money in its second weekend in just 174 screens. But it’s a pretty good number.

The To Do List is a mainstream movie being rolled out slowly. A $2800 per-screen for the weekend is okay… not a phenom. Hard way to push out a movie. Searchlight continues to roll out its terrific The Way Way Back, now on 886 screens and grossing nearly $1m yesterday. Total domestic is $6.6m so far. Similar per-screen as Do To.

And Blue Jasmine got out of the blocks nicely. Woodys fifth straight release with Sony Classics will open right between his mist recent, To Rome With Love and his biggest hit ever, Midnight in Paris.

36 Responses to “Friday Estimates by The Kladyrine”

  1. Paul Doro says:

    I really didn’t care for The To Do List. I wanted to like it since a movie like this so rarely has female leads, but it strains too hard to be Superbad and very much feels like the effort of a first-time feature filmmaker. I love Plaza on Parks & Rec, but in nearly every scene of a movie she is grating and irritating. She doesn’t have much range and would have been better as one of the friends. And it’s one of those movies that seems to equate profanity with great jokes, never mind the setup or punchline. And watching Plaza eat human feces is excruciatingly stupid. The supporting cast is good but wasted. I just didn’t laugh much.

  2. Big G says:

    I guess David’s Alzheimer’s kicked in since he forgot to analyze The Conjuring’s Friday number. LOL

  3. LYT says:

    Red 2 and RIPD – comic-book-based movies that opened Comic Con weekend. Dumb scheduling.

  4. Botner says:

    Crazy that The Conjuring is going to outgross the likes of Pacific Rim and Turbo, domestically. Guess that takes some of the sting out of Pac Rim’s soft gross.

    TWWB doesn’t look like it will be “the next Little Miss Sunshine”, which I’m sure Searchlight was hoping for after spending $10M on it. Too bad, as it deserves it.

  5. movieman says:

    I pretty much agree w/ your assessment of “To-Do,” Paul.
    Love most of the cast–many of whom are regulars on some of my favorite TV shows!–but the direction was graceless, and much of the humor just falls flat.
    Plus, it’s another film that confuses smutty-awkward w/ smutty-ha-ha. And, yeah, that “Caddyshack” homage is probably the most repulsive (and unfunny) thing I’ve seen in a movie all year.
    Still trying to figure out why it’s set in 1993 and Idaho, since no attempt is made to disguise the SoCal locations.
    Was that supposed to be ironic?

  6. Uh says:

    RIPD cost 195.

  7. Uh, no says:

    A little less than 150 net. It’s sad when your financial solace is that your domestic and international marketing spend was not in the league of a real summer movie, but that’s a significant downside limitation. Still, no silver linings.

  8. movieman says:

    Saw a few new trailers yesterday, and some of them actually looked…good.
    Lutekic’s “Paranoia” (godawful, utterly generic/disposable title which
    could sink it before it even opens) looks like it has the potential to be another “Limitless:” cool concept, flashy direction, neat cast.
    And after “42” (and from I could see of his chrome-domed baddie in
    the trailer), Harrison Ford (of all people, huh?) seems to be having a genuine “moment.”
    Also fun watching Gary Oldman chew scenery as a Cockney rotter.
    I loved the new “Elysium” trailer. If it’s as good as it looks, it
    could be the best late-summer news for genre fans since “The Road
    Warrior” opened in August ’82.
    The long-gestating “47 Ronin” (w/ Keanu’s return to Hollywood
    blockbuster-style filmmaking) just might be a Xmas sleeper.
    I got “‘Crouching Tiger’ Meets ‘Last Samurai'” vibes. And it looks as
    ‘crazy-stylish as Wong Kar-wai’s first martial arts film, “Ashes of Time.”
    The “Walter Mitty” trailer made me smile. It seems to have a nice Wes
    Anderson-y thing going on, and the bit w/ the Eskimo at an Inuit car
    rental office actually made me laugh out loud.
    Reasons to be cheerful?

  9. David Poland says:

    Big G – Would have. Nothing very interesting there… is there?

  10. Mike says:

    Anyone seen Drinking Buddies? Is it worth watching?

  11. leahnz says:

    “I loved the new “Elysium” trailer. If it’s as good as it looks, it could be the best late-summer news for genre fans since “The Road Warrior” opened in August ’82.”

    that struck me funny movieman – probably because i actually remember when MM2 came out in ’82, the ayatollah of rocknrolla – yeah that’s not a LONG FUCKING TIME for us genre fans to wait at all, only 31 years, it just flew by!

    (must admit i’m psyched for elysium – one of the few i’m just jonesing for, so parched for some compelling intelligent kickass sci-fi – trying not to get my hopes up too high)

  12. Steven Kaye says:

    Actually, Blue Jasmine’s first Friday was stronger than MiP’s. Poland gets it wrong again.

  13. movieman says:

    Leah- The summer of ’82 really was nirvana for genre buffs/fanboy types, wasn’t it?
    “Poltergeist,” “Blade Runner,” “The Thing,” “The Road Warrior,” “E.T”……
    “Tron,” “Beastmaster” and “Sword and the Sorcerer,” too, I suppose, although I was never really a fan of them. I’m probably blanking on a few others as well.
    Yeah, the new “Elysium” trailer definitely kicks ass.
    And it’s the first one where I was actually able to parcel out a storyline, lol.
    Love that Jodie is once again playing another patrician ice queen like she did so expertly (and amusingly) in Spike Lee’s ‘Inside Man”!

  14. leahnz says:

    man ’82 kicked monumental ass — i know the old ‘but you’re looking back through rose-coloured glasses’ argument gets trotted out around here (*cough* mostly by younger types who weren’t around or old enough to remember back in the day) when people deign to shake their fist at a cloud ranting ‘movies were so much better back then’, but my ass – movies WERE better back then, so pfft. my teen boy’s been watching a lot of 70s/80s/90s movies and he tells me constantly how much better older movies are and i don’t even pay him to say that or anything

    oh yeah and i agree, isn’t it kind of a hoot that jodi may be finding a niche as a bit of a regal ice queen villain in this later stage of her career, who knew

  15. movieman says:

    I’m just glad to see Foster working again, Leah.
    It feels like an eternity since “Carnage” which, truth be told, almost completely faded from memory an hour after seeing it.
    But yeah. She definitely has a knack for playing corporate/patrician bitches, lol.

  16. Paul Doro says:

    I really didn’t think James Wan had it in him. I hate Saw, Dead Silence, Death Sentence, and Insidious, and I’ve always hated Wan. But damn if I didn’t like The Conjuring. He does botch the end, going for overkill followed by schmaltz (and of course we get a few requisite cheap boo scares), but the vast majority is pretty effectively creepy and well-constructed. I got goosebumps a few times, and had a good time. Cast is really solid, too. Credit where credit is due. Nicely done Mr. Wan. Also, while audience interaction is routine at movies like this, was very amused when one woman left for the restroom two-thirds of the way through and said “I’m going to change my pants” to the usher, and not long after that another woman whimpered “I want to go home.”

    While the Paranoia TV spots have done nothing for me (haven’t seen a full trailer), 47 Ronin looks pretty cool. Some spectacular visuals in that trailer. Maybe it won’t suck after all. And yeah Elysium looks great. Can hardly wait to see it.

  17. Foamy Squirrel says:

    MM/Leah – I don’t think you can argue against the influentialness (is that a word? Spellcheck doesn’t seem to think so… but then again spellcheck doesn’t think spellcheck is a word either). But at the time? No-one saw some of those films – Blade Runner was 1 month and gone, Tron lasted 8 weeks but pretty much vanished after 4, Road Warrior opened to a Red2 worthy 4th…

    Thank god for VHS – ’82 may have produced some greats, but at the time you could be forgiven for wondering where all the hits were outside of ET and Poltergeist.

  18. christian says:

    Ah, 82. I chose to see THE ROAD WARRIOR over POLTERGEIST in the theater next door on their opening weekend.

  19. YancySkancy says:

    Guess I’ll have to take a look at the new ELYSIUM trailer. The first one just made me think, Oh God, not another dystopian science fiction epic. Am I simply too optimistic a person to give in to these plots? Society has almost always seemed like it’s going to hell in a handbasket, but the doomsday extrapolations that so many screenwriters concoct just strike me as absurd, and the opposite of entertaining or enlightening. When I see Damon suiting up in that ridiculous outfit, I just assume that Blomkamp originally conceived the idea when he was 14. Hope it’s great though. I always want movies to be great.

  20. Foamy Squirrel says:

    I don’t get the hook of Elysium. It’s been a while since I saw the trailer, but if I remember rightly there’s a voiceover thing which states that THIS (the cybernetic frame) is what will allow them to storm the gates of Elysium.

    You know, I would have thought being stronger and faster than the average human would be several orders of magnitude behind, I don’t know, a ship capable of safely traveling to and securing a safe landing zone on the orbital space station. The cybernetic frame for me would be above “go to the gym more often” and below “get a gun” and “outnumber my opponents 3:1″ on the list of things I would need for a populist revolution.

  21. LexG says:

    How are any of you actually making it through The Conjuring? I’ve paid to see it and STORMED OUT 3 times, because the audience is JUST so fucking AWFUL for it… Like tons and tons of HUGE Mexican families talking at the screen, sneaking in late, texting…. I made it all the way to 40 minutes today before yet another storm-out.

    Is there anywhere in LA where quiet Caucasians can go to see this movie?

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SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE I AM A VIRGIN DM ME ESCORT INFO AT LEXG_III ON TWITTER OR I WILL COMMIT SUICIDE

  23. Bob Burns says:

    no, but thanks for asking.

  24. christian says:

    LexG is THE QUIET CAUCASIAN

  25. Steven Kaye says:

    According to estimates, Blue Jasmine pulled in a career best PTA for Woody. More info as it comes to hand.

  26. Paul Doro says:

    Please Steve I can’t wait any longer. Tell me more. I need to know now.

  27. Chucky says:

    “Fruitvale Station” = glorifying police murder. Rush-released to cash in on the George Zimmerman acquittal. It’ll stiff outside the arthouse ghetto.

    “The To-Do List” = juvenile comedy, wisely cut back to limited release. Stiffing as it should.

    “Blue Jasmine” = has to go national and into most every megaplex. A movie with mainstream potential cannot be buried in the arthouse ghetto.

    As for LexG? Time to ban him and I mean permanently.

  28. GexL says:

    I AM A SUCCESSFUL WRITER AND GET LAID ALL THE TIME
    I AM A SUCCESSFUL WRITER AND GET LAID ALL THE TIME
    I AM A SUCCESSFUL WRITER AND GET LAID ALL THE TIME
    I AM A SUCCESSFUL WRITER AND GET LAID ALL THE TIME
    I AM A SUCCESSFUL WRITER AND GET LAID ALL THE TIME
    I AM A SUCCESSFUL WRITER AND GET LAID ALL THE TIME
    I AM A SUCCESSFUL WRITER AND GET LAID ALL THE TIME

    …and so on.

  29. Chucky says:

    LexG posting under a different name. Permanent ban!

  30. Joe Leydon says:

    Chucky: Fruitvale Station hardly “glorifies” a police murder.

  31. Chucky says:

    @Joe: “Fruitvale Station” certainly does glorify police murder. The man who shot dead the BART rider walked free — because the gunman was a BART policeman. BART and the government were damn lucky that Oakland didn’t go up in flames.

    Harvey Weinstein not only loves to buy awards, he now puts out movies that promote an authoritarian America.

  32. Joe Leydon says:

    Uh, Chucky: I don’t really think Fruitvale glorifies the BART cop. Indeed, I would go so far as to say the movie depicts him in a rather unfavorable light.

    And if you think this movie sets out to “promote an authoritarian America,” I don’t think we saw the same movie.

    http://www.movingpictureblog.com/2013/07/review-fruitvale-station.html

  33. christian says:

    Chucky, to namecheck the 1967 CASINO ROYALE: “You’re insane, my child, quite insane.”

  34. Paul Doro says:

    It is not the filmmakers’ fault that the BART cop who shot and killed Oscar Grant got a slap on the wrist. Were they supposed to ignore what really happened and sentence him to the chair, in order to avoid “glorifying police murder” and make sure the killer was appropriately demonized?

  35. Sam says:

    Lex, Chucky, and Kaye all in the same comment thread? Time to get some popcorn.

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“I remember very much the iconography and the images and the statues in church were very emotional for me. Just the power of that, and even still — just seeing prayer card, what that image can evoke. I have a lot of friends that are involved in the esoteric, and I know some girls in New York that are also into the supernatural. I don’t feel that I have that gift. But I am leaning towards mysticism… Maybe men are more practical, maybe they don’t give into that as much… And then also, they don’t convene in the same way that women do. But I don’t know, I am not a man, I don’t want to speak for men. For me, I tend to gravitate towards people who are open to those kinds of things. And the idea for my film, White Echo, I guess stemmed from that — I find that the girls in New York are more credible. What is it about the way that they communicate their ideas with the supernatural that I find more credible? And that is where it began. All the characters are also based on friends of mine. I worked with Refinery29 on that film, and found that they really invest in you which is so rare in this industry.”
Chloë Sevigny

“The word I have fallen in love with lately is ‘Hellenic.’ Greek in its mythology. So while everyone is skewing towards the YouTube generation, here we are making two-and-a-half-hour movies and trying to buck the system. It’s become clear to me that we are never going to be a perfect fit with Hollywood; we will always be the renegade Texans running around trying to stir the pot. Really it’s not provocation for the sake of being provocative, but trying to make something that people fall in love with and has staying power. I think people are going to remember Dragged Across Concrete and these other movies decades from now. I do not believe that they will remember some of the stuff that big Hollywood has put out in the last couple of years. You’ve got to look at the independent space to find the movies that have been really special recently. Even though I don’t share the same world-view as some of my colleagues, I certainly respect the hell out of their movies which are way more fascinating than the stuff coming out of the studio system.”
~ Dallas Sonnier