By David Poland firstname.lastname@example.org
Friday Estimates by Klady The Okay & Canadian
Oz is fine. There has to be a little discomfort at The Mouse House that the film is looking like it could open a bit short of expectations. But the story of this movie, as with so many, is international, where Disney will be looking for Oz to at least double the domestic.
Would it matter if the movie didn’t suck? Ah, there’s the rub. Probably not. If the movie was a real crowd pleaser, this would be a different conversation. But “okay” versus “not good” is not much of a distinction in the marketplace these days. Even “good” vs “okay” isn’t much distinction. There are movies, like The Avengers, that just plain turn audiences on. And aside from that, the box office trajectory is pretty clearly laid out… except for the cases when the media gangs up and declares something D.O.A. That can put a stench on a movie that is every bit as powerful as word of mouth. But it only happens a few times a year… but it does happen every year.
The greatest thing than ever happened to Oz was Jack, The Giant Slayer. It got hit so hard that everyone is too tired to do anything but smile and wink about Oz.
One hates to smack Dead Man Down. Weak opening. Will make its money back internationally. Its stars are quality, but not openers.
Silver Linings Playbook should pass $120m this weekend. Someone bet me the weekend it opened to what seemed like soft business that it would never get to $30m. It will do more than 4x that figure… another fine lesson on how quick judgements in box office can be a huge mistake.
Nice number for the barely-sold Emperor. Hardly earth-shattering, but the movie seems to be drawing an audience in spite of itself.