By David Poland email@example.com
Friday Estimates by Klady
A Good Day To Die Hard is doing decent business… but not great business.. not Die Hard business. Of course, they are opening in February, not the summer. Why? I have no idea. The $33m that Die4 opened to is quite doable in February. ID Thief opened to $34m just last weekend. Or perhaps it is a dump in the most advantageous position to put a film they knew was trouble. Or were they just getting crummy old domestic out of the way so they could go out and chase what has been a $200m+ international franchise the last 2 times out… Mutha Russia indeed. But don’t be too shocked if this is the lowest domestic grosser of the franchise… and still over $250m worldwide… profitable.
Safe Haven is a movie with two stars, neither of whom (aside from a supporting role in the Transformerses) have ever been in a movie that opened to over $16m. But the star of the movie is Nicholas Sparks and the actors are about as important as the people on the covers of a romance novel. The author has a glass ceiling, but these movies tend to be made on the cheap and deliver $40m-$60m domestic each time, with $80 as the extreme high. They also have a lot of ongoing value for a very committed Home Entertainment segment… women who like to exercise their tear ducts. Safe Haven could well end up doing what Hans Gruber could not, beating out John McClane.
Escape From Planet Earth is another piece of low-end animation released by The Weinstein Company. It’s their fourth shot, as best I can tell, and it will be closer to the top of their success (Hoodwinked) than the $3m and $4m openings of the others.
And the horror show of the weekend is Beautiful Creatures, which seemed to be EVERYWHERE… but is being seen by almost no one. From my perspective, a really clear case of “What The F–K Is It?” syndrome. Is it an Emmy Rossum movie? Is it about some girl who kinda looks like Emmy Rossum? I am an Alden Ehrenreich fan, but almost no one knows who he is. And just throwing Jeremy Irons and Emma Thompson at a mess still leaves a mess.
Warm Bodies is a bona fide hit for SummitGate… half the buzz of The Perks of Being A Wallflower and triple the business (or more). It moves into Summit’s Top 10 all-time and Top 5 aside from The Twilight Saga this weekend.
Meanwhile, Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters is heading to $50m and Mama to $70m… and you wonder, if these numbers aren’t good enough, what would be good enough? If $50m for a pulp horror/thriller or $70m for a scarefest – domestic alone – isn’t okay, how does this business work?