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David Poland

By David Poland

3-Day Weekend Estimates by Die Klady

I’m not sure if there is much more to say about Die Five. It won’t do as well as Identity Thief domestically… but it may well double the worldwide take. Boom goes the old bald guy.

Speaking of ID Thief… it has another full month before another major comedy shows up… which is a huge advantage for the film. It could actually end up around $140m domestic at this rate… maybe higher.

The bad news story of the weekend is a domestic gross on Beautiful Creatures that, when it maxes out, won’t come close to covering the ad buy. WB is batting .222 since the summer, though the success of Argo and The Hobbit (passing $300m this week) in many ways covers for the many small flops along that road. Without Argo, even Hobbit wouldn’t make this look okay. Personally, I am hoping for a great run from WB through July. Man of Steel scares me, but who knows? Maybe it will be great.

It looks like Sony Classics has once again found their Spanish-language market for the opening of No, the terrific Oscar-nominated film. Really go0d opening on 4 screens. And a nice number for The Gatekeepers – nominated for Doc – as well.

And it’s nice that there is a market for the awards-xnominated shorts out there. The number, on 305 screens, is not huge. But it’s not nothing… especially in light of online availability of many of the shorts. Looks like Shorts International will do a couple of million dollars by the time next weekend’s show starts. Well done.

16 Responses to “3-Day Weekend Estimates by Die Klady”

  1. etguild2 says:

    MAMA will go down as the biggest non-Paranormal Activity horror film (not counting comedies like DARK SHADOWS or sci-fi like Prometheus) since SAW III…six and a half years ago!. That’s kind of shocking. Aside from Paranormal, it’s the biggest horror non-sequel since THE GRUDGE, eight and a half years ago (assuming it holds enough to edge EXORCISM OF EMILY ROSE). What a gangbusters start to the year for Universal.

    Why, oh why does The Weinstein Company throw out these second-tier animation films? The only reason this one will come close to breaking even is because it’s the only kiddie film released over a span of like 4 months. Otherwise, it would have bombed. Weinstein is handling QUARTET pretty well using the slow-burn strategy that worked for INTOUCHABLES and SILVER LININGS, but they have no business in the kiddie market. Hopefully the profits they are reaping from DJANGO and SILVER won’t result in more of these….

  2. chris says:

    That’s exactly why TWC does it, et. There was a gap in the schedule, where some money could be made, and they filled it.

  3. etguild2 says:

    So they knew the schedule a year in advance, and had inside intel that Dreamworks would move THE CROODS from March 1 to March 22? And this movie still won’t make any money unless the multiple is Pixarish, so it’s a worthless endeavor even in this once in a generation kiddie gap.

  4. cadavra says:

    They do it for the ancillaries, obviously. DVD and TV are nearly-permanent revenue streams for animation.

    And goddamn it, DARK SHADOWS is not a comedy!!!

  5. J says:

    Is there something new happening with DVD windows? I know ‘Argo’ is on awards-related push back into theaters, but it comes out on disc Tuesday while still a top-12 box office draw. And Wreck-It Ralph is top 20 two weeks away from its home video release.

  6. etguild2 says:

    But still, the is a marginal, at best, profit cadavra, even with DVD. And second-tier doesn’t sell well. See the figures for Hoodwinked 2

    Re: DVD windows, putting out THE MASTER the day after Oscars, when every other major movie released the same MONTH has been released, has to be the stupidest decision in quite awhile.

  7. sanj says:

    after watching 6 different movie critics review die hard 5 – i’m going to skip it …critics of the series of films aren’t happy that they don’t have the formula right.

    Hans Gruber needs a dp30 – he’s always up to no good
    hiding in big buildings with huge offices.

    die hard taught everybody about architecture and buildings … this movie needs to be on history channel or discovery channel.

    lets hope fast and furious 6 doesn’t suck – fast five was way too long.

  8. actionman says:

    what scares you about man of steel?

  9. PcChongor says:

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t “Escape From Planet Earth” the film in which the filmmakers sued the Weinsteins over?

    Seems to be doing fine for what amounts to a legally obligated, bare-minimum release.

  10. eric mayher says:

    Dave, The buzz on Man of Steel is that the WB execs are extremely happy with it according to Latino Review and they have good sources from what I understand. Box Office might be another issue but it doensn’t look or sound like it is going to have the issues Superman Returns did and I think that is a underated movie that is much better than its repuation.

  11. etguild2 says:

    Yep, but the lawsuit has no impact on the fact that it was greenlit in the first place or that The Weinstein Company thought it wanted to release it, when TWC has no business releasing these types of movies. The crew initiated the lawsuit, and from what I can tell, the Weinsteins never tried to shelve the project, just underpay the crew.

  12. bulldog68 says:

    I think the strength of Argo, both critically and commercially surprised even the studio. In hindsight I think they would have delayed the DVD release because after 19 weeks, the legs have turned out to be very amazing, and if it were to go on and win, then there would be another bump to come. Argo has only had two weekends where it has dipped below $1m thus far. Even Avengers wasn’t this high after 19 weekends.

  13. Foamy Squirrel says:

    cadavra says:
    February 17, 2013 at 10:41 am

    And goddamn it, DARK SHADOWS is not a comedy!!!

    You’re right, it was a tragedy.

    Thank you, thank you, I’ll be here all week. Try the veal, and don’t forget to tip your waiter…

  14. etguild2 says:

    I think the profit of a DVD release right before Oscar vastly outweighs the box office of a prolonged theatrical run. “GET IT WHILE IT’S HOT!”

  15. Joe Leydon says:

    The people I saw Dark Shadows with sure seemed to think it was a comedy.

  16. Gus says:

    NO is a truly excellent film and a masterpiece from a tone point of view. His ability to recreate the era and tv-style look without irony has to be seen to be believed. I’d never seen his other work and was pretty much blown away. Go check it out if you’re in NYC/LA.

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