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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

3-Day Weekend Estimates by Die Klady

I’m not sure if there is much more to say about Die Five. It won’t do as well as Identity Thief domestically… but it may well double the worldwide take. Boom goes the old bald guy.

Speaking of ID Thief… it has another full month before another major comedy shows up… which is a huge advantage for the film. It could actually end up around $140m domestic at this rate… maybe higher.

The bad news story of the weekend is a domestic gross on Beautiful Creatures that, when it maxes out, won’t come close to covering the ad buy. WB is batting .222 since the summer, though the success of Argo and The Hobbit (passing $300m this week) in many ways covers for the many small flops along that road. Without Argo, even Hobbit wouldn’t make this look okay. Personally, I am hoping for a great run from WB through July. Man of Steel scares me, but who knows? Maybe it will be great.

It looks like Sony Classics has once again found their Spanish-language market for the opening of No, the terrific Oscar-nominated film. Really go0d opening on 4 screens. And a nice number for The Gatekeepers – nominated for Doc – as well.

And it’s nice that there is a market for the awards-xnominated shorts out there. The number, on 305 screens, is not huge. But it’s not nothing… especially in light of online availability of many of the shorts. Looks like Shorts International will do a couple of million dollars by the time next weekend’s show starts. Well done.

16 Responses to “3-Day Weekend Estimates by Die Klady”

  1. etguild2 says:

    MAMA will go down as the biggest non-Paranormal Activity horror film (not counting comedies like DARK SHADOWS or sci-fi like Prometheus) since SAW III…six and a half years ago!. That’s kind of shocking. Aside from Paranormal, it’s the biggest horror non-sequel since THE GRUDGE, eight and a half years ago (assuming it holds enough to edge EXORCISM OF EMILY ROSE). What a gangbusters start to the year for Universal.

    Why, oh why does The Weinstein Company throw out these second-tier animation films? The only reason this one will come close to breaking even is because it’s the only kiddie film released over a span of like 4 months. Otherwise, it would have bombed. Weinstein is handling QUARTET pretty well using the slow-burn strategy that worked for INTOUCHABLES and SILVER LININGS, but they have no business in the kiddie market. Hopefully the profits they are reaping from DJANGO and SILVER won’t result in more of these….

  2. chris says:

    That’s exactly why TWC does it, et. There was a gap in the schedule, where some money could be made, and they filled it.

  3. etguild2 says:

    So they knew the schedule a year in advance, and had inside intel that Dreamworks would move THE CROODS from March 1 to March 22? And this movie still won’t make any money unless the multiple is Pixarish, so it’s a worthless endeavor even in this once in a generation kiddie gap.

  4. cadavra says:

    They do it for the ancillaries, obviously. DVD and TV are nearly-permanent revenue streams for animation.

    And goddamn it, DARK SHADOWS is not a comedy!!!

  5. J says:

    Is there something new happening with DVD windows? I know ‘Argo’ is on awards-related push back into theaters, but it comes out on disc Tuesday while still a top-12 box office draw. And Wreck-It Ralph is top 20 two weeks away from its home video release.

  6. etguild2 says:

    But still, the is a marginal, at best, profit cadavra, even with DVD. And second-tier doesn’t sell well. See the figures for Hoodwinked 2

    Re: DVD windows, putting out THE MASTER the day after Oscars, when every other major movie released the same MONTH has been released, has to be the stupidest decision in quite awhile.

  7. sanj says:

    after watching 6 different movie critics review die hard 5 – i’m going to skip it …critics of the series of films aren’t happy that they don’t have the formula right.

    Hans Gruber needs a dp30 – he’s always up to no good
    hiding in big buildings with huge offices.

    die hard taught everybody about architecture and buildings … this movie needs to be on history channel or discovery channel.

    lets hope fast and furious 6 doesn’t suck – fast five was way too long.

  8. actionman says:

    what scares you about man of steel?

  9. PcChongor says:

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t “Escape From Planet Earth” the film in which the filmmakers sued the Weinsteins over?

    Seems to be doing fine for what amounts to a legally obligated, bare-minimum release.

  10. eric mayher says:

    Dave, The buzz on Man of Steel is that the WB execs are extremely happy with it according to Latino Review and they have good sources from what I understand. Box Office might be another issue but it doensn’t look or sound like it is going to have the issues Superman Returns did and I think that is a underated movie that is much better than its repuation.

  11. etguild2 says:

    Yep, but the lawsuit has no impact on the fact that it was greenlit in the first place or that The Weinstein Company thought it wanted to release it, when TWC has no business releasing these types of movies. The crew initiated the lawsuit, and from what I can tell, the Weinsteins never tried to shelve the project, just underpay the crew.

  12. bulldog68 says:

    I think the strength of Argo, both critically and commercially surprised even the studio. In hindsight I think they would have delayed the DVD release because after 19 weeks, the legs have turned out to be very amazing, and if it were to go on and win, then there would be another bump to come. Argo has only had two weekends where it has dipped below $1m thus far. Even Avengers wasn’t this high after 19 weekends.

  13. Foamy Squirrel says:

    cadavra says:
    February 17, 2013 at 10:41 am

    And goddamn it, DARK SHADOWS is not a comedy!!!

    You’re right, it was a tragedy.

    Thank you, thank you, I’ll be here all week. Try the veal, and don’t forget to tip your waiter…

  14. etguild2 says:

    I think the profit of a DVD release right before Oscar vastly outweighs the box office of a prolonged theatrical run. “GET IT WHILE IT’S HOT!”

  15. Joe Leydon says:

    The people I saw Dark Shadows with sure seemed to think it was a comedy.

  16. Gus says:

    NO is a truly excellent film and a masterpiece from a tone point of view. His ability to recreate the era and tv-style look without irony has to be seen to be believed. I’d never seen his other work and was pretty much blown away. Go check it out if you’re in NYC/LA.

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The Hot Blog

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Guardians of the Galaxy 3.8 3462 -21% 262.1
As Above/So Below 3.2 2640 NEW 3.2
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2.7 3543 -41% 153.3
If I Stay 2.6 3003 -62% 23.1
The November Man 2.2 2776 NEW 3.9
Let's Be Cops 2 3010 -39% 51.1
When the Game Stands Tall 1.4 2673 -52% 12.1
The Giver 1.3 2805 -37% 27.6
The Hundred-Foot Journey 1.1 1918 -30% 35.9
The Expendables 3 0.85 2564 -55% 30.5
Also Debuting
Cantinflas 0.81 382
Ghostbusters - 30th Anniversary 0.49 784
Rabhasa 0.1 86
Double Di Trouble 38,300 33
Life of Crime 30,600 35
Kundo: Age of Rampant 28,900 26
Swearnet 28,300 88
Raja Natwarlal 22,100 74
Peruchazhi 14,100 13
The Congress 7,560 13
The Last of Robin Hood 7,100 2
Starred Up 2,900 2
Temporary Family 2,800 5
Through a Lens Darkly 2,750 1
Road to Ninja: Naruto the Movie 2,700 7
Last Weekend 1,350 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office