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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Klady & Mama: Box Office Hunters

I don’t know that there is much more to say about this weekend.

I don’t suspect it will get much better next weekend. The weekend after, the spring movie seasons starts with Identity Thief, followed a week later by the latest Die Hard.

39 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady & Mama: Box Office Hunters”

  1. movieman says:

    The weekend after, the spring movie seasons starts with Identity Thief, followed a week later by the latest Die Hard.

    …and by “Safe Harbor,” which could very well outgross “DH” opening weekend thanks to a cushy “Valentine’s Day Weekend” release date.
    Not sure how great “Identity Thief” is going to do.
    McCarthy–who I find absolutely repugnant in the trailer–could be the deciding factor.
    Bateman (“The Switch,” “The Change Up”) has a history of headlining underperforming high-concept comedies.

  2. etguild2 says:

    Jeez, poor Arnie.

    One huge big box office story that’s been overlooked is the EXPLOSION in Chinese box office over the last 2 months. CHINESE ZODIAC is at $152 million (!) after 5 weeks of release, THE GRANDMASTER is at $42 million after 2 weeks of release, and LOST IN THAILAND is nearing $200 million(!!) after 6 weeks.

    SKYFALL is also benefiting, as it’s done nearly $50 million of business there already, and is about to shoot past TDKR as the #2 film of 2012 worldwide.

    If censorship issues are further eased, Hollywood is going to start making Mandarin-language films pronto.

  3. cadavra says:

    IDENTITY THIEF may be the final coffin nail in Bateman’s movie career; it’s merely the Ben Stiller role–how many times can he be kicked in the groin and suffer other humiliations in the space of two hours?

    BTW, am I the only one who noticed that McCarthy in the key art is sipping a Big Gulp the same way Amy Poehler did in the ad for BABY MAMA? Are they just totally incapable of coming up with anything new?

  4. movieman says:

    Or I could be completely off base, and “Identity Thief” will tear up the mid-winter b.o. blahs.
    Seth Gordon has been on a roll lately.
    Bateman did have a hit as part of an ensemble cast in Gordon’s previous movie (“Horrible Bosses”).
    And even Gordon’s wretched, far-worse-than-”Movie-43″ “Four Christmases” did over $100-million domestically.
    The only thing for sure is that “Safe Harbor” and “Die Hard” will rule the “Valentine’s Weekend” b.o. roost.
    Maybe WB should rethink their decision not to open “Beautiful Creatures” a day early (on Wednesday the 13th). It’ll need all the help it can get opposite those two powerhouses.

  5. Joe Leydon says:

    Cadavra: It’s lazy visual shorthand for “white trash doofus.” Sort of like using breath spray is lazy visual shorthand for “fatuous, pretentious ass.” (Which always makes me wonder how companies EVER sell breath spray.)

  6. sanj says:

    identity thief – i liked the trailer the first time i saw it but this looks like a made for tv movie but some gross out humor…one day Bateman and McCarthy will be lucky enough to get a dp/30.

    i wanna see a movie 43 dp/30 ..how can so many movie stars avoid DP in explaining this …the same actors have to do interview with dramas that are just as hard to understand …

  7. Rob says:

    And so much of the IDENTITY THIEF trailer is devoted to McCarthy rocking out in the car the way Charlie Day did in HORRIBLE BOSSES.

    Studio comedies at this point seem to mostly take funny people from TV and make them fall down a lot.

  8. movieman says:

    I’ve had an aversion to McCarthy since her bizarre, multi-pierced turn in “The Life of David Gale” (aka the movie that killed Alan Parker’s directing career).

  9. eric mayher says:

    Yeah Die Hard and Safe Harbor are this years Safe House and The Vow which both did 40 million plus on the weekend before valentines day, this year it’s the weekend after but the results should be the same. The numbers might be lower because the marketplace seems a little weaker than it did last year at this time. Can’t wait for the box office doomsdayers that drive Dave crazy if box office is way down this spring from last year. It’s always the product. If people want to go they go if not they don’t.

  10. Joe Leydon says:

    Movieman: That might be an interesting list: Movies that killed directors’ careers. Years ago, when I interviewed George Sidney, he insisted that he WANTED to take a break from filmmaking after Half a Sixpence. At least, that was his story, and he stuck with it.

  11. Lane Myers says:

    I’ve never heard of Safe Harbor

  12. Gus says:

    Curious about David Gale. Did it really go over THAT poorly. Looks like it cost $40M, did $40M gross, and I’m sure caught up just fine on ancillary. Not the worst bomb one could imagine.

  13. Pete B. says:

    Hansel & Gretel was much better than I thought it would be. Actually alot of fun in IMAX 3D.

    Not sure why they chose the cast they did as there’s 15 years age difference between Renner and Arterton, when in the film they’re close in age. In real life he would have been closer to Famke Janssen (7 years).

  14. Lex says:

    McCarthy’s faces when singing that I WOULD WALK… song and “Barracuda” is the most EMBARRASSING thing EVER. And I get that trailer AND her other one, THE HEAT, before literally every single movie, whether it’s ZDT or HAUNTED HOUSE. Usually they’re paired together.

    That MIA “Bad Girls” song blaring when Bullock and McCarthy smash beer glasses together then the SPANX? WHAT’S GONNA COME POPPIN’ OUT are getting to Shutter Island, Soloist, Argo, “I Got Stabbed/That’s AWESOME!” levels of trailer overplay.

  15. Amblinman says:

    I’m very late to the party but I finally caught End Of Watch. Someone help me out here, why isn’t Michael Pena nominated for everything and staring at the start of his leading man phase in Hollywood?

  16. etguild2 says:

    Melanin count and appearance.

  17. bulldog68 says:

    Ditto what Amblinman said. I’ve been touting his performance since I saw it. If End of Watch was a Weinstein flick, it would have received a better campaign.

  18. christian says:

    SAFE HARBOR looks like a Lifetime movie.

  19. Jay says:

    Worse than the McCarthy double feature before every film I see these days is the Pain and Gain trailer, which I’ve already seen more than ten times and isn’t releasing until April.

  20. cadavra says:

    Not just directors. Ross Hunter went from the biggest blockbuster of his career–AIRPORT–to the musical LOST HORIZON…and it stunk up the joint so badly he never produced another theatrical film.

  21. bulldog68 says:

    Imagine a box office where 8 of the top 10 films are rated R. And the two that are not are a horror and a musical. The poor kiddies.

  22. scooterzz says:

    in defense of ross hunter, he hugely redeemed himself with his subsequent tv work…the networks loved him…

  23. Joe Leydon says:

    I know this is going to sound like something I’m making up on the spot, but: Back in the day, I actually did a phoner with Ross Hunter for Lost Horizon. And the poor dude was so eager — desperate? — to make the movie seem relevant, he kept talking about how audiences needed an upbeat and optimistic movie like Lost Horizon at a time when so many people were upset about Watergate. I swear.

  24. YancySkancy says:

    Lane: You’ve never heard of SAFE HARBOR because it’s actually SAFE HAVEN. Everybody seems to be getting it wrong. I’ve seen the trailer a few times now, and yeah, I guess it will do okay as a Valentine’s Day choice. It’s Nicholas Sparks, right? I don’t think Julianne Hough is ever quite gonna “happen” though.

  25. leahnz says:

    i have a feeling ‘argo’ is going to win the best picture oscar

  26. Lex says:

    Hough = Total Hotness.

  27. movieman says:

    Oy and mea culpa.

    Was I the first one to call “Safe Haven” “Safe Harbor,” lol?
    I guess I should have been more respectful since it IS a Lasse Hallstrom film.
    But seriously.
    The damn thing looks so frigging generic in a–yep–Lifetime Movie
    sort of way that even its title feels evanescent.
    It will bank some serious February buck, though, even if Duhamel and Hough aren’t quite in the same league as, say, Tatum and McAdams (the stars of last year’s “Valentine’s Day Weekend” date movie smash).

  28. Lex says:

    SAFE HAVEN is a Nicholas Sparks deal, though, making it this year’s LUCKY ONE (could be wrong, I don’t think THE VOW was a Sparks.) But, yeah, same release date, sure.

    I always enjoy the Sparks movies, but it’s fascinating how this dude has ONE PLOT (North Carolina coastal romance with a fairly standard DEEP DARK SECRET) and he sells apparently a zillion novels of it, and they make a new movie LIKE CLOCKWORK every year from one of them. (Was LAST SONG the only non-hit?) I’m always envious because while anybody could probably concoct that kind of romance plot, not many people know about BOATING and NORTH CAROLINA which is his specialty, so how would you come up with all those plots if you didn’t know what it was like to live THERE, which always seems so romantic in his stories? Like me or MOVIEMAN might know a few PLACE NAMES in rural western PA, but it hardly smacks of SCENIC FERRIS WHEEL BEACHFRONT ROMANCE, so we don’t get to be millionaire authors.

  29. bulldog68 says:

    No thoughts on the SAG Awards Dave?

  30. Lex says:

    ^ I don’t think Poland’s sounded off on MCN about the SAGs, and knowing him he probably won’t on the blog…

    But one thing I’m starting to find funny is that the BLOG REGULARS seem blissfully unaware that MCN has other sections where Poland writes up stuff.

    I’m guilty of this as anyone, ’cause I have HOT BLOG saved as a favorite and come here a few times a day, but seems like everyone’s always all “WHY DIDN’T YOU BLOG ABOUT (INSERT FILM FESTIVAL)????”, when if you’d just go to the MCN HOMEPAGE there’s ample coverage of it with Poland actually writing longform shit, or his other writers.

    Like EVERYONE here has been on DP’s ass about this for two years now since he’s gone down the DP/30 wormhole…. but he writes some stuff on MCN main and it’s like nobody from the blog bothers to go there.

    Just amusing because it reminds me of like guys who go to IMDB *ONLY* to go to the message boards, then start threads like “Who played Javert?” on the LES MIS board, as if they weren’t on the IMDB PAGE where you could easily scroll up four inches and have the whole cast list.

  31. sanj says:

    DP just wrote mini reviews for like 20 movies from Sundance on the main page – “Wrapping Up Sundance, Pt 1: The Not-Docs” plus he added 2 dp/30′s ..

    if everybody would take 10 seconds and click around you’ll find the new stuff.

    Safe Haven – DP did a dp/30 with Lasse Hallström and talked about it for like 4 minutes.

  32. movieman says:

    Geneva on the Lake, Ohio would be an idyllic setting for a Sparks-ish doomed love love story.

  33. anghus says:

    I think Sparks Adaptations are responsible for 8% of the film production here in North Carolina.

    Post Apocalyptic TV makes up another 25% as both Revolution and Under the Dome are currently filming.

  34. cadavra says:

    I love Hallstrom, but I’m not sure I can motivate myself enough to sit through SAFE WHATEVER.

  35. etguild2 says:

    His last three English language releases were a whole yar’s worth of treacle…

  36. Gus says:

    I’m definitely guilty of what Lex writes about. I am only interested in this site for the box office analysis and comments, so I never go to anything else MCN does. That’s probably why I am constantly confused as to how this site exists or generates revenue.

  37. Triple Option says:

    This shows how close attention I was paying to Hanz & Gret, I had no idea that was Gemma Arterton!! Here I was 48 hours ago cursing the mere concept of the movie and questioning its reason for existence but now I’m checking showtimes.

    I think we can all learn from my poor, misguided example. Don’t rush to judgment, boys and girls!

  38. Lane Myers says:

    Lex, fwiw The Last Song made $62mi, which is slightly more than The Lucky One (and more than Nights in Rodanthe & Walk to Remember). All were relatively inexpensive to make, so it depends on your definition of “hit”‘ vs. “non-hit”.

    You are right about the plot always being the same. In fact, given the boating local, it seems to me that SAFE HARBOR would be a better title with it’s double entendre, than SAFE HAVEN.

  39. Bennett says:

    Entourage movie…..I hope they take the characters into some sort of wild Hangover style adventure and not just four guys hanging out in L.A. with celeb cameos..That’s the TV Show which I have no interest in paying to see again.

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The Hot Blog

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Lucy 17 3173 NEW 17
Hercules 11 3595 NEW 11
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 4.7 3668 -55% 160.4
The Purge: Anarchy 3.4 2856 -65% 44.8
Planes: Fire & Rescue 2.8 3839 -57% 28.6
Sex Tape 1.9 3062 -68% 22.8
And So It Goes 1.3 1762 NEW 1.3
Transformers: Age of Extinction 1.3 2476 -54% 233
Tammy 1.1 2562 -54% 75.8
22 Jump Street 0.8 1613 -46% 183.9
Also Debuting
A Most Wanted Man 0.71 361
The Fluffy Movie 0.51 432
Kick 0.37 179
Magic in the Moonlight 0.12 17
She's Dating the Gangster 70,000 46
Alludu Seenu 29,100 86
The Divine Move 13,000 11
Happy Christmas 4,150 4
A Master Builder 3,100 2
Thirumanam Ennum Nikkah 2,800 13
Eyjafjallajokull 1,800 4
Come Back to Me 1,500 8
A Letter to Momo 1,100 1
Very Good Girls 1,100 9
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office