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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by 0DarKlady

So… it looks like Sony is estimating a big drop-off in movie attendance for Zero Dark Thirty because of the combination of both Sunday and The Globes tonight, estimating $9.1 on Friday, $9.4m on Saturday and $5.6m today. So, on a normal weekend, they’d probably be closer to $27m on the 3-day estimate.

But the problem, aside from Kathryn Bigelow not getting an Oscar nomination, is a 59/41 split male-to-female in the audience this weekend. This, as I keep writing, is no surprise, as Sony has sold almost exclusively to men. In a year when dramatic movies have been regularly cracking the $90m and $100m mark, there is nothing terribly surprising or triumphant about this opening. It’s fine. Don’t get me wrong. I am not screaming about a car wreck. But as I noted yesterday, this 3 days is not even what Black Hawk Down opened to a decade ago. Hell, it’s almost $10m less than Sony opened The Green Hornet to just two years ago.

On the other hand, it is better than the best weekend of Argo or Life of Pi and even Lincoln‘s best weekend of $25.7m would likely have been behind ZD30‘s 3-day if it wasn’t for the presumed Globes’ Sunday effect. No one can actually know whether ZD30 would have powered through Christmas had they gone wide as originally scheduled, generating at least $80m and eliminating the so-called “torture debate” with the opinions of real moviegoers. One can only wonder.

Open Road’s A Haunted House actually opened pretty well. It’s a little behind Open Road’s success last January with The Grey… so it’s not a complete surprise… but it’s still a nice opening, really. Spooked by the comedy was Gangster Squad, for which this opening wouldn’t be so bad… except it feels a bit like they found their audience and have no idea of how to expand that base.

Here is a close-up chart of just the Oscar nominees, 8 now in release and the 9th that is not…

23 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by 0DarKlady”

  1. antho42 says:

    I might be wrong in assuming this, but does not Django depend on its box office numbers in the international box office, because the film cost so much money? It can still be considered a failure if it under-performs outside of the USA.

  2. Joshua says:

    Big improvement for Kathryn Bigelow: “Zero Dark Thirty” grossed more this weekend than “The Hurt Locker” did in its entire run. By next Sunday it’s possible that ZD30 could be the highest-grossing film of her career (in nominal dollars, not adjusted for inflation).

  3. etguild2 says:

    You know, there are also apparently four “games of sport” being televised by something called the National Football League this weekend. They might have had an effect on a military themed movie heavily targeting males.

  4. bulldog68 says:

    Django’s reported budget is $100m. It’s at $125m now with a possible $50m to come, so no. That along with the Oscar nods should have it smelling like a rose just on the domestic front.

    On the other hand, a movie like Life of Pi which has been spared from most negative commentators, is absolutely depending on it’s foreign dollars to recoup it’s investment. A reported budget of $145m, it may top out under $105 or barely cross the $100m mark, but thus far it’s foreign run has been very successful so Fox is breathing a sigh of relief with this one. It started off looking like this years Hugo, but Richard Parker bailed them out.

  5. Lex says:

    Hate to kick a nice little movie when it’s down, but PROMISED LAND? Number 19 and under 7 mil total after its second weekend? To think it’ll barely make more than Van Sant’s more experimental indies.

  6. movieman says:

    Happy to see “Skyfall” closing in on the $300-million mark. (It’s now $10-million ahead of “Twilight.”)
    With $22-million still to go, it’s beginning to look like “The Hobbit” may have to fight to hit $300-million.
    At least “Rise of the Guardians” should be able to (finally) cross the $100-million threshold without any difficulty–although it obviously won’t get much higher than that.
    Any bets on how massive a drop “Haunted House” will have next weekend?
    A 76% plunge like “Chainsaw 3-D” seems do-able, especially w/ “Mama” (my pick for the #1 b.o. slot), Wahlberg and Schwarzenegger all opening Friday.
    Speaking of “Broken City,” has anyone seen it yet? Fox seems to be doing one of their typical “press blackout” things which makes me super nervous.
    They’re finally showing it Tuesday nite in Cleveland: the same evening as the (only pre-release) screenings of “Mama” and “The Last Stand.”
    Nice planning.

  7. cadavra says:

    I wouldn’t weep for GANGSTER SQUAD just yet. Any period film will automatically skew older, and I suspect its legs will be fairly strong as my peeps begin to show up.

  8. Joe Leydon says:

    Hey, I know of at least one potential moviegoer who’s staying home to watch a big game this afternoon.

  9. bulldog68 says:

    I still don’t know why people are saying the Hobbit will struggle to hit $300m. Based on it’s trajectory it will have to fall of a cliff not to hit it. Skyfall was at $261m after 5 weeks, that’s a $17m deficit, and it’s going to make it to $300m.

    Hobbit is running very close to Attack of the Clones, which had a similar 5th weekend of $9.4m and it was at $270m after 5 weeks and made it. That’s $8m behind Hobbit.

    Next week is a 4 day weekend so historically there are small drops at the box office, and particularly for family fare and being really the only family option out there, I think $300m is a lock.

  10. Smith says:

    In addition to Promised Land, let’s have a moment of silence for last weekend’s conversation piece, Not Fade Away, which lost 69% of its theaters and dropped 85% at the box office. It’s not even going to make $750k!

  11. etguild2 says:

    Yeah there’s almost no chance HOBBIT misses $300 million. When the three new releases and top 5 at the box office are unacceptable for kids under 13, I have a hard time seeing HOBBIT shed THAT many theatres.

    Plus, by the time FELLOWSHIP was at the same level HOBBIT is at now, it was only in 1,500 theaters. HOBBIT is essentially running four weeks ahead of it.

  12. lazarus says:

    sanj says:

    When are we going to get a DP/30 on the filmmakers behind Matru Ki Biji Mandola, since they’re at the top of the “also debuting/expanding” list?

    Real missed opportunity there.

    I’m currently on my third rewatch of all the DP/30s from 2010, and my archive website will be updated soon with capsule reviews of all, plus a new re-ranking.

  13. movieman says:

    Cad- There’s also the very real potential of negative WOM.
    Sad to say, but “Gangster Squad” just isn’t very good.
    I’d be very surprised if it evinces any real legs, particularly with all of the available “adult” options currently in theaters (and the many grown up-leaning titles opening soon).
    Maybe moving “GS” from September to January was a pretty smart idea after all.

  14. Lex says:

    “Here comes Santy Claus!”

  15. sanj says:

    yeah well DP never seems to get to my dp/30 requests.

    even if DP got Tarantino or Nolan – which a lot of people
    have asked for – my guess is it would be a standard interview.

    what confuses me is when DP delays a dp/30 for more than 3 months for no real reason. it’s sitting in DP’s private digital collection … how does this help the movie get promoted ?

    i’m looking forward to the sundance dp/30′s …

  16. chris says:

    Wait. Is the argument up-top that a film’s failure to earn its non-name-brand director an Oscar nomination, while it did earn best picture and actress nominations, cost it money at the box office?

  17. cadavra says:

    Movieman: GANGSTER got a “B” Cinemascore, which isn’t too bad, especially considering many opening weekend attendees were probably younger and didn’t dig the hats, funny clothes and other weird shit. If it drops 60% or more this coming weekend, I’ll gladly eat crow, but I don’t think it will; most of the other “adult options” are serious films, and apart from DJANGO (which may be too grisly for some) and REACHER (which is almost played out now) this is the only action film that would appeal to us geezers.

  18. Mr. Peel says:

    I want to meet those older adults who don’t think that GANGSTER SQUAD, which is both terrible and pretty damn violent, is too grisly. Those are some pretty hardcore seniors.

  19. Lex says:

    I don’t know why Cadavra and, to a lesser degree, Leydon always jump the gun all selling themselves short talking about how they’re old dudes or “seniors” or geezers or whatever. Both guys come off more plugged-in and fun and with it than 90% of the cynical 30- and 40-somethings I know in L.A.

  20. Sam says:

    A movie opening in January isn’t very good? Shocker.

    The rule for February isn’t much better. I think you can have one good movie in February, but that’s it. The rest have to be January-level bad.

  21. cadavra says:

    Lex, thanks for the compliment. I use “geezer” with tongue in cheek, but it does seem like we’re the neglected generation when it comes to entertainment. And I do try to keep up as best as I can. I once told some snot-nosed punk, “I know who R. Kelly is, but you don’t know who Gene Kelly is, so where do you get off acting superior to me?”

  22. christian says:

    Cad, there’ s only one person here who regularly calls you and Joe “old” – you know who that is right? ” Thank you sir may I have another!”

  23. spassky says:

    “I once told some snot-nosed punk, “I know who R. Kelly is, but you don’t know who Gene Kelly is, so where do you get off acting superior to me?””

    This is awesome.

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The Hot Blog

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
If I Stay 6.8 2907 NEW 6.8
Guardians of the Galaxy 4.8 3371 -31% 239.3
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.5 3864 -44% 133.3
Let's Be Cops 3.2 3140 -44% 37.4
When the Game Stands Tall 2.9 2673 NEW 2.9
Sin City: A Dame to Kil For 2.6 2894 NEW 2.6
The Giver 4.7 3003 -57% 23
The Expendables 3 1.9 3221 -68% 19.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 1.6 1944 -23% 28.8
Into the Storm 1.1 2375 -54% 35.6
Also Debuting
Mardaani 52,400 76
Love is Strange 36,500 5
The One I Love 12,800 10
To Be Takei 6,800 15
Tu dors Nicole 5,800 3
Keyed: A Deadly Game of Sex Lies Betrayal 3,800 1
Are You Here 3,000 14
Expedition to the End of the World 2,200 1
The Prince 1,850 10
The Possession of Michael King 1,800 4
Salvo 1,150 2
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office