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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by 0DarKlady

So… it looks like Sony is estimating a big drop-off in movie attendance for Zero Dark Thirty because of the combination of both Sunday and The Globes tonight, estimating $9.1 on Friday, $9.4m on Saturday and $5.6m today. So, on a normal weekend, they’d probably be closer to $27m on the 3-day estimate.

But the problem, aside from Kathryn Bigelow not getting an Oscar nomination, is a 59/41 split male-to-female in the audience this weekend. This, as I keep writing, is no surprise, as Sony has sold almost exclusively to men. In a year when dramatic movies have been regularly cracking the $90m and $100m mark, there is nothing terribly surprising or triumphant about this opening. It’s fine. Don’t get me wrong. I am not screaming about a car wreck. But as I noted yesterday, this 3 days is not even what Black Hawk Down opened to a decade ago. Hell, it’s almost $10m less than Sony opened The Green Hornet to just two years ago.

On the other hand, it is better than the best weekend of Argo or Life of Pi and even Lincoln‘s best weekend of $25.7m would likely have been behind ZD30‘s 3-day if it wasn’t for the presumed Globes’ Sunday effect. No one can actually know whether ZD30 would have powered through Christmas had they gone wide as originally scheduled, generating at least $80m and eliminating the so-called “torture debate” with the opinions of real moviegoers. One can only wonder.

Open Road’s A Haunted House actually opened pretty well. It’s a little behind Open Road’s success last January with The Grey… so it’s not a complete surprise… but it’s still a nice opening, really. Spooked by the comedy was Gangster Squad, for which this opening wouldn’t be so bad… except it feels a bit like they found their audience and have no idea of how to expand that base.

Here is a close-up chart of just the Oscar nominees, 8 now in release and the 9th that is not…

23 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by 0DarKlady”

  1. antho42 says:

    I might be wrong in assuming this, but does not Django depend on its box office numbers in the international box office, because the film cost so much money? It can still be considered a failure if it under-performs outside of the USA.

  2. Joshua says:

    Big improvement for Kathryn Bigelow: “Zero Dark Thirty” grossed more this weekend than “The Hurt Locker” did in its entire run. By next Sunday it’s possible that ZD30 could be the highest-grossing film of her career (in nominal dollars, not adjusted for inflation).

  3. etguild2 says:

    You know, there are also apparently four “games of sport” being televised by something called the National Football League this weekend. They might have had an effect on a military themed movie heavily targeting males.

  4. bulldog68 says:

    Django’s reported budget is $100m. It’s at $125m now with a possible $50m to come, so no. That along with the Oscar nods should have it smelling like a rose just on the domestic front.

    On the other hand, a movie like Life of Pi which has been spared from most negative commentators, is absolutely depending on it’s foreign dollars to recoup it’s investment. A reported budget of $145m, it may top out under $105 or barely cross the $100m mark, but thus far it’s foreign run has been very successful so Fox is breathing a sigh of relief with this one. It started off looking like this years Hugo, but Richard Parker bailed them out.

  5. Lex says:

    Hate to kick a nice little movie when it’s down, but PROMISED LAND? Number 19 and under 7 mil total after its second weekend? To think it’ll barely make more than Van Sant’s more experimental indies.

  6. movieman says:

    Happy to see “Skyfall” closing in on the $300-million mark. (It’s now $10-million ahead of “Twilight.”)
    With $22-million still to go, it’s beginning to look like “The Hobbit” may have to fight to hit $300-million.
    At least “Rise of the Guardians” should be able to (finally) cross the $100-million threshold without any difficulty–although it obviously won’t get much higher than that.
    Any bets on how massive a drop “Haunted House” will have next weekend?
    A 76% plunge like “Chainsaw 3-D” seems do-able, especially w/ “Mama” (my pick for the #1 b.o. slot), Wahlberg and Schwarzenegger all opening Friday.
    Speaking of “Broken City,” has anyone seen it yet? Fox seems to be doing one of their typical “press blackout” things which makes me super nervous.
    They’re finally showing it Tuesday nite in Cleveland: the same evening as the (only pre-release) screenings of “Mama” and “The Last Stand.”
    Nice planning.

  7. cadavra says:

    I wouldn’t weep for GANGSTER SQUAD just yet. Any period film will automatically skew older, and I suspect its legs will be fairly strong as my peeps begin to show up.

  8. Joe Leydon says:

    Hey, I know of at least one potential moviegoer who’s staying home to watch a big game this afternoon.

  9. bulldog68 says:

    I still don’t know why people are saying the Hobbit will struggle to hit $300m. Based on it’s trajectory it will have to fall of a cliff not to hit it. Skyfall was at $261m after 5 weeks, that’s a $17m deficit, and it’s going to make it to $300m.

    Hobbit is running very close to Attack of the Clones, which had a similar 5th weekend of $9.4m and it was at $270m after 5 weeks and made it. That’s $8m behind Hobbit.

    Next week is a 4 day weekend so historically there are small drops at the box office, and particularly for family fare and being really the only family option out there, I think $300m is a lock.

  10. Smith says:

    In addition to Promised Land, let’s have a moment of silence for last weekend’s conversation piece, Not Fade Away, which lost 69% of its theaters and dropped 85% at the box office. It’s not even going to make $750k!

  11. etguild2 says:

    Yeah there’s almost no chance HOBBIT misses $300 million. When the three new releases and top 5 at the box office are unacceptable for kids under 13, I have a hard time seeing HOBBIT shed THAT many theatres.

    Plus, by the time FELLOWSHIP was at the same level HOBBIT is at now, it was only in 1,500 theaters. HOBBIT is essentially running four weeks ahead of it.

  12. lazarus says:

    sanj says:

    When are we going to get a DP/30 on the filmmakers behind Matru Ki Biji Mandola, since they’re at the top of the “also debuting/expanding” list?

    Real missed opportunity there.

    I’m currently on my third rewatch of all the DP/30s from 2010, and my archive website will be updated soon with capsule reviews of all, plus a new re-ranking.

  13. movieman says:

    Cad- There’s also the very real potential of negative WOM.
    Sad to say, but “Gangster Squad” just isn’t very good.
    I’d be very surprised if it evinces any real legs, particularly with all of the available “adult” options currently in theaters (and the many grown up-leaning titles opening soon).
    Maybe moving “GS” from September to January was a pretty smart idea after all.

  14. Lex says:

    “Here comes Santy Claus!”

  15. sanj says:

    yeah well DP never seems to get to my dp/30 requests.

    even if DP got Tarantino or Nolan – which a lot of people
    have asked for – my guess is it would be a standard interview.

    what confuses me is when DP delays a dp/30 for more than 3 months for no real reason. it’s sitting in DP’s private digital collection … how does this help the movie get promoted ?

    i’m looking forward to the sundance dp/30′s …

  16. chris says:

    Wait. Is the argument up-top that a film’s failure to earn its non-name-brand director an Oscar nomination, while it did earn best picture and actress nominations, cost it money at the box office?

  17. cadavra says:

    Movieman: GANGSTER got a “B” Cinemascore, which isn’t too bad, especially considering many opening weekend attendees were probably younger and didn’t dig the hats, funny clothes and other weird shit. If it drops 60% or more this coming weekend, I’ll gladly eat crow, but I don’t think it will; most of the other “adult options” are serious films, and apart from DJANGO (which may be too grisly for some) and REACHER (which is almost played out now) this is the only action film that would appeal to us geezers.

  18. Mr. Peel says:

    I want to meet those older adults who don’t think that GANGSTER SQUAD, which is both terrible and pretty damn violent, is too grisly. Those are some pretty hardcore seniors.

  19. Lex says:

    I don’t know why Cadavra and, to a lesser degree, Leydon always jump the gun all selling themselves short talking about how they’re old dudes or “seniors” or geezers or whatever. Both guys come off more plugged-in and fun and with it than 90% of the cynical 30- and 40-somethings I know in L.A.

  20. Sam says:

    A movie opening in January isn’t very good? Shocker.

    The rule for February isn’t much better. I think you can have one good movie in February, but that’s it. The rest have to be January-level bad.

  21. cadavra says:

    Lex, thanks for the compliment. I use “geezer” with tongue in cheek, but it does seem like we’re the neglected generation when it comes to entertainment. And I do try to keep up as best as I can. I once told some snot-nosed punk, “I know who R. Kelly is, but you don’t know who Gene Kelly is, so where do you get off acting superior to me?”

  22. christian says:

    Cad, there’ s only one person here who regularly calls you and Joe “old” – you know who that is right? ” Thank you sir may I have another!”

  23. spassky says:

    “I once told some snot-nosed punk, “I know who R. Kelly is, but you don’t know who Gene Kelly is, so where do you get off acting superior to me?””

    This is awesome.

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