By David Poland firstname.lastname@example.org
Weekend Estimates by 0DarKlady
So… it looks like Sony is estimating a big drop-off in movie attendance for Zero Dark Thirty because of the combination of both Sunday and The Globes tonight, estimating $9.1 on Friday, $9.4m on Saturday and $5.6m today. So, on a normal weekend, they’d probably be closer to $27m on the 3-day estimate.
But the problem, aside from Kathryn Bigelow not getting an Oscar nomination, is a 59/41 split male-to-female in the audience this weekend. This, as I keep writing, is no surprise, as Sony has sold almost exclusively to men. In a year when dramatic movies have been regularly cracking the $90m and $100m mark, there is nothing terribly surprising or triumphant about this opening. It’s fine. Don’t get me wrong. I am not screaming about a car wreck. But as I noted yesterday, this 3 days is not even what Black Hawk Down opened to a decade ago. Hell, it’s almost $10m less than Sony opened The Green Hornet to just two years ago.
On the other hand, it is better than the best weekend of Argo or Life of Pi and even Lincoln‘s best weekend of $25.7m would likely have been behind ZD30‘s 3-day if it wasn’t for the presumed Globes’ Sunday effect. No one can actually know whether ZD30 would have powered through Christmas had they gone wide as originally scheduled, generating at least $80m and eliminating the so-called “torture debate” with the opinions of real moviegoers. One can only wonder.
Open Road’s A Haunted House actually opened pretty well. It’s a little behind Open Road’s success last January with The Grey… so it’s not a complete surprise… but it’s still a nice opening, really. Spooked by the comedy was Gangster Squad, for which this opening wouldn’t be so bad… except it feels a bit like they found their audience and have no idea of how to expand that base.