I think six nominees, outside shot at seven, slightly less likely we get five nominees, very doubtful we repeat nine nominees or hit ten or eight.

1. Lincoln
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Argo
4. Les Miserables
5. Django Unchained
6. Life of Pi

I’d put passion votes like Beasts, Moonrise, Master ahead of the middling mediocre SLP actually, it’d be my ninth choice.

1. Spielberg
2. Bigelow
3. Tarantino
4. Hooper
5. Affleck/Lee/Russell/Anderson/Haneke/Zeitlen

I’ll go with Affleck, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a “shocking” snub in favor of DGA nommed Lee; I’m more surprised that the pundits have not discussed this possibility, you only need what 20 or 30 votes to get a nomination in this category?

1. DDL
2. Jackman
3. Washington
4. Cooper
5. Trintigent

I like Hawkes performance better than my 4 and 5, but again, I think his film has become an afterthought. would love a Jamie Foxx surprise here.

1. Chastain
2. Lawrence
3. Riva
4. Wallis
5. Cotillard

I have a hard time believing we’ll get two frenchies in the lineup, but it’s that or suffer through watching The Impossible, which just sounds awful to have to force myself to undergo that sort of thing, so I’ve kept off Watts because I haven’t seen her work.

1. Jones
2. Arkin
3. Dicaprio
4. Jackson
5. DeNiro/Waltz/Hoffman

I’ll go with the safe bet DeNiro, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him or Hoffman miss for the final slot. Jackson’s was the most impressive and perhaps memorable performance of Django and I think he’s in like the girl from Crazy Heart. Sometimes it matters what is unforgettable in a film, not who has buzz.

1. Hathaway
2. Field
3. Smith
4. Hunt
5. Kidman/Adams

in any event, I think the cinematography and editing categories are some of the most interesting this year, its too bad pundits and forums always ignore the arts categories for the cattle categories.

Cinematography
1. Life of Pi
2. Skyfall
3. Zero Dark Thirty
4. Les Miserables
5. Lincoln

The Master is obviously missing from this list, but the oscars doesn’t nominate every B&W film for the novelty of being B&W, nor will they nominate a 70mm film for the novelty of being 70mm. it was lovely cinematography, especially nice in a 70mm print, but it wasn’t anything special. a very competitive category with Django, Beasts, Master, Anna Karenina, DKR, Prometheus, Moonrise all possible spoilers. It was a brilliant year of camerawork, even without the novelty/gimmick cinematography of Hobbit and The Master making it a ‘headline’ year for the discipline.

Editing
1. Argo
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Lincoln
4. Django Unchained
5. Les Miserables

Not as banner a year for editing, but still a tight race, funny they’re all such long films this year. I’m confident in the top four and would prefer to see Looper, Anna Karenina or Beasts in the fifth slot, though Les Mis handled things wonderfully, imo, the shortest feeling long movie of the year, for me. I imagine that SLP and Life of Pi are the next most likely films here, would be disappointed if either of them showed up here. I really hope more poorly edited/paced films like Master, Skyfall or DKR don’t earn a nomination here.

Does anyone seriously think that Denzel deserves a nomination over Phoenix? or FUCKING HUGH JACKMAN. Bring on thursday so I can be done with this.