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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Texas Kladysaw 3D

Ok. So it ain’t The Devil Inside (by almost 40%), but it is the second biggest January horror opener in history. Not bad.

It’s a half-mil behind the last reboot of the gas & insanity powered franchise in 2003… though this one has the added benefit of a 3D bump. Still, not bad.

A $26m opening would put it right in the wheelhouse of Underworld and Taken that studios are happy to hit this time of year. So… not bad.

Apparently, unless you have to see The Texas Chainsaw Massacre 3D. Of course, I loved the last reboot and many hated it. So one never knows until one sees the film.

The rest of the chart looks awfully familiar, though Django (the n-word ain’t silent) has broken past The Miserable and The Short to be the top veteran by a decent margin. Truth is, the others have started running out of steam and DU is just doing very solid business. It’s off 35% from last Friday, which is not miraculous… but is very good.

The Hobbit had three times as much domestic box office as Django going into Friday, so I hardly think this is cause for alarm at WB. But “they” would like to get to $300m domestic and that is not as clearly possible as “they” would like. Hobbit passed $250m yesterday and should be over $260m by the end of the weekend. And they’ll be close to – if not over – $800m worldwide by Monday too. The first Rings film did $872m worldwide. Still a possibility for this first Hobbit film… and by no means anything less than a big success.

Les Misérables isn’t quite the grosser that its $18m opening Tuesday suggested. But it’s doing great. And the foreign push has barely begun. Domestically, it should pass $100m on Sunday. If not, on Monday. That puts it in a category with only 7 other musicals in history. Honestly, I have no idea where this film is headed. $150m seems likely. Beyond that, I just have no way of guessing what Oscar nominations will or will not do for this gross. Remember, Chicago didn’t expand until after nominations. Les Mis gives every indication of being over its box office hump. So, we’ll see…

Parental Guidance is one of those very quiet $50m+ grossers.

Jack Reacher is not dead… but $65m at this point… not that thrilling. $80m domestic seems to be where it’s headed.

This is 40 hits 50 today.

And Lincoln is at $140m as of Friday and headed to, certainly, more than $150m.

42 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Texas Kladysaw 3D”

  1. anghus says:

    shocked by the texas chainsaw gross. far better than i thought it would be. the marketing was so vague and a 3D horror film in early january seemed like a stretch for a 20 – 25 million debut. Bananas.

  2. greg says:

    Holy moly. That TC3D is fantastic. Sequel, here we come.

    As a long time devoted fan of Leatherface…TC3D was one of the best movies I’ve ever seen. Leatherface comin’ at ya’ in 3D!! Fantastic. The ending blew me away. The gore was plentiful and realistic.

    The Saw is Family!!

    I saw it twice in a row, yesterday.

  3. Joe Leydon says:

    Evidently, I liked Texas Chainsaw 3D a bit more than most of my critical brethren. But I’m mildly surprised by all the comments about wall-to-wall gore. Maybe I’ve become jaded after frequent trips to Fantastic Fest, but except for a couple of really graphic sequences, I thought the film was relatively — repeat, relatively — circumspect.

  4. bulldog68 says:

    The Hobbit gets to $300m guaranteed. Bank on it. It would basically have to fall off a cliff not to get there. It’s ahead of Fellowship by a full $41m after the same 22 days, and ahead of Skyfall by $8m. It’s actually gaining ground on Towers. It’s my least favorite Rings, but this narrative (not by you David) that it is under-performing is just ludicrous. With minimal family options this month, and yes I do expect a faster drop off rate than the other Rings, it might still limp over the Fellowships $315 total.

    And while we are on the subject of limp, seems like Guardians will limp over $100m after all. Still a domestic disappointment, but a psychological victory nonetheless.

  5. Uh says:

    With 3D everyone expected HOBBIT to make way more domestically. But the overseas numbers are all so high it doesn’t matter.

    If only the movie were good or an hour shorter…

  6. Gus says:

    That’s the thing that puzzles me most about the Hobbit. Much more than the decision to make it three movies is the decision to make each so long. I don’t know if everyone would be so bothered if the film were just a two hour long piece broken up over three years. I suppose they’re banking on the perception of its epic-ness to drive the audience to the theater for these things? It just seems that no one thinks it really calls for such length.

  7. bulldog68 says:

    Agreed Gus. And while I don’t believe that there are enough Tolkien geeks to fuel a movie past $300m all by themselves, one of my buddies who identifies as such has no problem with the length. As far he’s concerned, he just wants to be in that world for as long as possible. He’ll watch the Shire grass grow if given a chance.

  8. Gus says:

    Anyone else weirded out that IFC apparently just stopped reporting grosses for ON THE ROAD? It’s still playing at four theaters in LA alone. Odd. Was one of my favorite movies of the year.

  9. Smith says:

    Gus – It’s playing in two theaters in NYC still, too. Hoping to see it this week, and definitely think it’s weird that there haven’t been any numbers on it since its opening weekend.

  10. Joe Leydon says:

    FWIW: On the Road was supposed to open Jan. 18 in Houston, but has been pushed back until… well, I think March.

  11. christian says:

    The esthetic difference between a Tobe Hooper and Generic Music Video Director sums up TCM3D.

  12. Christian says:

    Saw “Life of Pi” a second time last night. It’s not at many theaters locally any longer, although that may change after Oscar nominations are announced next week.

    I was surprised at the turnout. Sure, it was a Friday-night show at 7:35, probably the busiest show of the week (if Saturday at 7:35 isn’t). But I did a hand count and was over 60 by the time the lights dimmed. People trickled in and out, so I didn’t try to keep up. At the conclusion of the film, on the way out of the theater, I asked a box-office attendant how many paying customers there had been for “Pi.” Answer: 71. At $15 a pop. After more than six weeks in release.

    Maybe I’m wrong to be impressed by that, but I was certainly surprised, even delighted, to see that level of interest in the film this far into its run.

  13. movieman says:

    “Not Fade Away” did $142 on 565 screens yesterday.
    That’s beyond pitiful.
    Even “Guilt Trip” (the biggest holiday flop) grossed $639-per on 2,312 screens Friday.
    Considering the studio’s virtual abandonment of the film (yesterday’s “expansion” screamed of a contractual dump), was there a feud between Chase and Paramount?
    It’s really kind of stunning how badly this movie was treated considering its prestigious launch as the centerpiece of the NYFF (and the overall sympathetic reviews).
    When I didn’t receive an “awards consideration screener,” I assumed it must have been pushed back to 2013. I was as surprised as anyone when it actually opened in a handful of theaters on December 21st.
    “On the Road” is already down to two shows a day (after just two weeks) at NYC’s Lincoln Plaza Cinemas. It’s sharing a screen w/ “A Late Quartet” which has been playing since early November…and “Quartet” is playing THREE times a day. Ouch.
    The Cleveland arthouse scheduled to open “On the Road” January 18th pushed it back to March, too, Joe.
    And to think that the trailers–which were ubiquitous at Regal and Cinemark multiplexes last fall–claimed it would be “Everywhere” in January.
    Yeah, right.

  14. Joe Leydon says:

    It always strikes me as kinda sad to see what happens to movies that start out being viewed as Oscar hopefuls, and wind up being more or less dumped. I may have mentioned this here before, but in case I didn’t: A Late Quartet lasted all of five days here in Houston. And Dustin Hoffman’s Quartet, once slotted for January, now has that dreaded “TBA” opening date.

  15. Joe Leydon says:

    On the other hand: It wasn’t so long ago that studios would open movies in test engagements — not always in NY or LA — and then delay going wider until they re-thought the ad/publicity campaigns, even redesigned the lobby posters. Maybe that’s what the have in mind for On the Road. As David often reminds us, we posters here may be informed as all get-out, but we represent just a sliver of a sliver of the moviegoing audience. It’s entirely possible that there are millions of folks out there who still don’t know that someone actually has made a movie of the Jack Kerouac novel — and would pay good money to see such a movie.

  16. Foamy Squirrel says:

    My glass never has Guiness in it, therefore that proves the existance of a glass that never runs out of Guinness. The existence of such a glass also necessitates an everlasting bowl of beer nuts, because what glass could not be accompanied by such a bowl?

    I shall therefore dedicate my life to robbing bars until I find these beer nuts, which shall explain my actions in a way that my being a deluded whackjob did not.

  17. Lex says:

    “Not Fade Away” is FANTASTIC.

    Also, it’s a long-gone thread, but Don Lewis was asking for everyone’s take on “Promised Land,” and my belated take is I enjoyed it WAY more than I expected (had nothing against it, love Damon and Van Sant, just seemed pretty minor)… But as a fan of earnest, vaguely cornpone populism, really enjoyed its old-school, relaxed charm and Damon’s typically phenomenal performance. It’s of course ironic that most of the country will hate it sight unseen for being “liberal propaganda,” when it gives the “other side” a more than fair shake for most of the runtime… but mostly because it’s a quintessentially and affectionately American movie.

  18. Lex says:

    I know I’ll get ignored for even mentioning her name, but if there’s a serious discussion about this, the story of the “On the Road” numbers, which apparently haven’t been any too good, is the story of how IFC put ALL the marketing eggs in the “K-Stew naked!” basket… then EDITED SAID NUDITY out of the compromised, R-rated version that’s currently playing in NYC/LA. You can watch sex scenes all over the internet from the film which are disastrously CENSORED in the version I paid 16 bucks to see.

    But to whatever degree the BEAT AUDIENCE is a force in 2012, or whatever recognition Hedlund of Viggo or Dunst or Adams or Sam Riley may or may not have, they were ALL back-burnered and the movie was integrated into Kristen’s usual endless whirlwind fashion-show/ awkward-appearance/ Twilight promo/ film fest circuit. Other than that, the movie wasn’t promoted at all to ANYONE outside die-hard K-Stew fans (90% of whom can’t and don’t see her edgy indie movies) and bloggers at film fests.

  19. Joe Leydon says:

    Lex, you raise an interesting point. Could IFC be thinking of taking the film out of circulation temporarily, then releasing an unrated, uncut version? Isn’t there some sort of MPAA rule regarding how long a film must be out of release before it can be re-released with a different rating?

  20. Lex says:

    I wouldn’t imagine that IFC, which allegedly has the movie on VOD in some markets (not mine), has the bankroll or interest to throw good movie after bad and relaunch a pretty small movie. I’m sure the inevitable BluRay release of the “Unrated European Version” will have to suffice.

    She remains an interesting anomaly, in that K-Stew is pretty much the highest-paid actress now, and certainly has replaced Jolie as THE most popular in tabloids… But anything she does out of Snow White and Twilight is an absolute guaranteed long-on-the-self mishandled indie that gets a botched token release. To the movie, that’s been the case. She has millions of female fans, but they sure don’t support any of her efforts outside of the norm.

  21. movieman says:

    Isn’t the cut of “On the Road” that opened (well, sort of) last month Salles’ “new and improved” post-Cannes edit that supposedly received a much warmer response in Toronto than the longer version did in France?
    I personally had no issues w/ the cut of “OTR” I saw. It actually placed (#10) on my 2012 top-ten list.

  22. Jomamash says:

    Stewart may not be naked as often in the US release, but she’s naked. From what I remember, it’s not as if the Cannes cut had anything that would get it an NC-17 here, so I’m not sure CENSORED is the correct descrip.

  23. Lex says:

    You can watch the double-handie scene on YouTube of all places and see that there’s sunlit Stewart toplessness, but in theaters the scene is cut down to under 5 seconds and consists only of the truck driver’s double-take, no nudity

    Honestly, I thought this was kind of a huge story, since at least THAT trim was to purposefully exclude her nudity (since as said above, it’s very tame and mild R not NC-17) for the film’s release in her biggest (and home) market base. It’s censorship. The only remaining KS skin is that introductory shot on her side, and some vague, dimly-lit “side boob” with Riley. It hardly even constitutes nudity anymore.

    No blogger has even addressed this story.

  24. Don R. Lewis says:

    I’m glad you caught that PROMISED LAND was a pretty fair look at *both* sides of the issue. I was starting to think I was losing my mind or something. They’ve (Damon, et all) fully embraced the “message movie” angle now too which sucks. Ah well.

  25. movieman says:

    The closest theater playing “Not Fade Away” is in Akron which is an hour away.
    And the Regal ‘plex that opened “NFA” yesterday is only showing it twice a day (it’s piggy-backed with, er, “Cirque de Soleil”).
    Can you say “dump”?
    Weather permitting, I’m planning to drive up for a weekday matinee since I’m sure it’ll be gone by Friday. Although at this rate, it’ll probably be on dvd by St. Paddy’s Day.

  26. Lex says:

    Also, little disappointed REACHER isn’t doing just a little better. Obviously the biggest Cruise fan possible, but mostly was just FASCINATED by its bizarre 1976-ness.

    Here’s the biggest star of the last 30 years… in a movie that has the rhythms and style of a Larry Peerce or John Guillerman movie from 1976, crossed with an episode of “Quincy.” It’s a fun potboiler, but the pacing is so relaxed, it has a near “Meet Joe Black” quality of taking place underwater, or the pool table scene in “Eyes Wide Shut”…. Pauses in between dialogue so long, you expect the audience to revolt from the PIN-DROP silence. Just totally different for a 2012 movie.

  27. movieman says:

    Just totally different for a 2012 movie.

    Which is what I liked about it, Lex.
    That and the uber Pittsburgh-ness of the whole thing, lol.

  28. Lex says:

    And that girl who hits on Cruise in the bar and has that GREAT scene at the auto shop put a smile on my face a mile wide.

    It’s pretty Pittsburgh, but then, half the movies that come out today are. Always amused that nobody EVER attempts the accent, though. And posh, beautiful Brit actresses like Rosamund Pike and Emma Watson don’t actually have that complex local mix of Steeler jersey fashion sense and Fatal Attraction hair.

  29. berg says:

    so what are the Pittsburg films of note? Flashdance …. Slap Shot …. every good film made by George Romero … All the Right Moves …. The Fish That Saved Pittsburgh … The Wonder Boys?

  30. Krillian says:

    Didn’t The Impossible expand? Guess that’s a dud.

  31. Joe Leydon says:

    Must admit: Jack Reacher is one of my faves of 2012. Really enjoyed the whole retro vibe of it. Even the pacing, which seems to be a problem for some people.

  32. berg says:

    the car chase in JR, while not quite Bullitt or French Connect level of taunt, was excellent nonetheless in a way that modern car chases (Drive, We Own the Night) can be

  33. chris says:

    That scene in “Not Fade Away” where — SPOILER — Gandolfini tells his son he has to talk to him about being the man of the family after he dies, only to resolute that very topic during the “talk” — is one of the most moving and beautiful of 2012.

  34. berg says:

    there is more than one scene in NFA that’s moving and beautiful …. like the final sequence where douglas is aimlessly wandering the windswept streets of L.A. like someone in an Antonioni film only to have his sister, the true narrator of the movie, burst onto the scene dancing, breaking the fourth wall and talking about her college paper on nukes and rock and roll

  35. Lex says:

    Yep, that last scene of NFA is incredible… Sadly it’d probably be lost on more than a few people, since it’s so far from the type of literalist ending most audiences crave.

  36. Joshua says:

    Joe: The MPAA does have a rule that a movie must be out of release for 90 days before being re-released with a different rating. However, the 90-day requirement can be waived. It was waived with regard to the PG-13 re-release of “The King’s Speech.”

  37. Joe Leydon says:

    Joshua: Thanks. Now that you mention it, I vaguely recall that being an issue with King’s Speech.

    BTW: With so many films released in digital format these days, wouldn’t it be relatively simple to put a different version of the same film into release? Just send out new discs or flash drives or whatever? I mean, it’s not like 1968, when Columbia had to physically trim the MLK joke from prints of Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner after MLK’s assassination.

  38. Lex says:

    Anyone else remember HBO busting out a PG version of EXCALIBUR in the daytime, then the R at night?

  39. berg says:

    I propose a triple feature, first Ridley Scott’s debut The Duelists, followed by uncut Legend with the euro score by Jerry Goldsmith, followed by same with the reduced-running-time domestic version with soundtrack by Tangerine Dream

  40. berg says:

    in Lincoln there should have been a line where DDL says “I WILL FIND YOU out of order.”

  41. Foamy Squirrel says:

    Just got off an international flight that had both On The Road and Holy Motors on the inflight playlist. Not sure how they cut
    the nudity for those, slept for most of the flight…

  42. cadavra says:

    Foamy, if it’s one of those little screens in your armrest, then those films are generally uncut, since they’re not visible to the entire cabin.

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