By David Poland firstname.lastname@example.org
Weekend Estimates by 3-Day Klady, DDS
So… beating a long holiday weekend to death…
The Hobbit‘s doing fine.
Django Unchained is doing quite well, though probably a bit overstated because of the holiday. The film got out of the gate a bit slower than Inglorious Basterds and is now running ahead with the weekend and the holiday weekdays working for it. But $100m domestic is a lock and Basterds’ $120m domestic is quite possible… even more. Like The Hangover before it, Tarantino’s spaghetti southern reminds us all of the perverse funny bone that we forgot needed tickling.
Les Misérables is the estrogen answer to Tarantino, a nasty, period version of Nicholas Sparks with singing at the top of lungs and lots of actual spit and snot. So romantic and sad. And commercial! $100-$120 million is a pretty reasonable domestic estimate for this film, too.
Parental Guidance, Jack Reacher, and This is 40 will also pass $120m… combined. Parental is doing okay, but the numbers suggest a lack of nostalgia for Billy Chrystal and Bette Midler and more a need for a family movie… ANY family movie. Jack Reacher seems to have wanted to mine the same hard-R fun as Django, but the pitch never took. And I think 40 just never made a single, focused argument to potential audiences. Without the broadness of Knocked Up‘s premise, I’m not sure that the audience that loves that Apatow was interested and without having had his Terms of Endearment, I’m not sure more serious-minded adults were interested in examining this film.
Lincoln is only $15m domestic away from celebrating the number of years since the President’s death. $203 million seems unlikely domestically (matching the number of years since his birth) but possible worldwide.
Skyfall announced hitting $1 billion worldwide today. That’s better than a 65% improvement over Bond’s previous high gross. Remarkable. The domestic improvement over all past Bond’s is even greater than overseas… up 76% (so far) from the previous high.
Silver Linings Playbook doubled its screen count on Christmas Day to 745 screens after 33 days hanging around on 367 screens and 5 days on just 16. The result is a strong -per-screen, $4m+ weekend and a likely gross of $30 million heading out of the holiday. Where does it go from there? Watch for answers on January 10th when Oscar defines the distribution/marketing plan.
Life of Pi is slowly working its way to $100m domestic… and will surely get there if Oscar nominated for Best Picture.
Argo will be closing fast on $110m by the end of the holiday.
Flight needs Oscar nominations if it’s going to push to $100m, but will be profitable regardless, thanks to one of the lowest price tags of the Oscar chasers.
And Zero Dark Thirty, still in a 5-screen holding pattern until January 11 (day after nominations), continues to do about $20k per screen each day as it waits.