Gurus o’ Gold: Post-NYFCC/Pre-Globes Nominations


Rank Last Chart Best Picture BreznicanEllwoodFeinbergHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWhippWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 Lincoln
DreamWorks/Disney
3 3 1 2 2 4 1 3 2 1 2 1 1 2 14 126
2 5 Zero Dark Thirty
Sony Pictures
1 2 3 3 1 5 3 1 1 2 3 2 2 3 14 122
3 2 Les Miserables
Universal
2 1 4 1 3 1 2 4 5 5 1 3 3 1 14 118
4 3 Argo
Warner Bros
4 4 2 4 4 3 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 14 98
5 4 Silver Linings Playbook
The Weinstein Company
6 6 5 5 5 2 4 2 3 3 5 6 5 6 14 91
6 6 Life of Pi
20th Century Fox
5 5 6 6 9 6 6 7 6 6 6 4 6 5 14 71
7 9 Beasts of the Southern Wild
Fox Searchlight
10 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 10 31
8 7 Amour
Sony Classics
9 9 8 6 9 10 6 7 7 9 28
9 Django Unchained
The Weinstein Company
7 8 8 8 9 10 9 7 18
10 8 The Master
The Weinstein Company
8 10 9 10 9 7 7 7 17
10 Moonrise Kingdom
8 7 9 10 8 9 10 7 16
Flight
9 10 9 8 7 5 12
The Impossible
7 8 10 7 4 12
Anna Karenina
9 10 10 3 4
Skyfall
10 8 2 4
The Dark Knight Rises
10 10 2 2
The Hobbit
0 0
The Sessions
0 0


Rank Last Chart Best Director BreznicanEllwoodFeinbergHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWhippWloszczyna Votes Total
t1 1 Steven Spielberg
Lincoln
3 4 1 3 2 4 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 14 54
t1 t5 Kathryn BIgelow
Zero Dark Forty
1 2 3 2 1 3 3 1 1 2 3 2 3 3 14 54
3 2 Ben Affleck
Argo
2 3 2 1 3 2 2 4 4 4 4 5 1 4 14 43
4 3 Tom Hooper
Les Miserables
5 1 4 4 4 1 5 5 5 1 4 1 12 32
5 4 David O. Russell
Silver Linings Playbook
5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 9 17
t5 Ang Lee
Life of Pi
4 5 5 3 4 7
Michael Haneke
Amour
5 5 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Paul Thomas Anderson
The Master
5 1 1


Rank Last Chart Best Actor BreznicanEllwoodFeinbergHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWhippWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 Daniel Day-Lewis
Lincoln
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 14 70
2 2 Hugh Jackman
Les Miserables
2 3 3 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 3 2 12 42
3 3 Denzel Washington
Flight
4 2 2 4 5 2 4 4 4 5 2 4 12 30
4 5 John Hawkes
The Sessions
3 4 4 5 4 4 3 5 3 2 4 5 12 26
5 4 Joaquin Phoenix
The Master
5 5 5 3 2 3 2 3 3 9 23
Bradley Cooper
Silver Linings Playbook
5 5 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 5 11 19


Rank Last Chart Best Actress BreznicanEllwoodFeinbergHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWhippWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 Jennifer Lawrence
Silver Linings Playbook
3 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 14 63
2 2 Jessica Chastain
Zero Dark Thirty
1 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 14 61
3 3 Marion Cotillard
Rust and Bone
3 4 4 3 4 2 3 4 5 5 3 11 26
t4 5 Emmanuelle Riva
Amour
4 4 3 5 5 5 3 3 4 4 10 20
t4 4 Quvenzhané Wallis
Beasts of the Southern Wild
5 3 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 9 20
Naomi Watts
The Impossible
2 5 3 5 5 5 10
Rachel Weisz
The Deep Blue Sea
5 3 2 4
Keira Knightley
Anna Karenina
4 5 2 3
Helen Mirren
Hitchcock
5 5 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Emayatzy Corinealdi
Middle of Nowhere
5 1 1


Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actress BreznicanEllwoodFeinbergHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWhippWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 Anne Hathaway
Les Miserables
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 14 70
2 2 Sally Field
Lincoln
2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 14 53
3 3 Helen Hunt
The Sessions
3 4 4 3 2 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 13 39
4 4 Amy Adams
The Master
3 3 5 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 12 27
5 5 Maggie Smith
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
4 5 4 5 5 5 5 7 9
Ann Dowd
Compliance
5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
Kelly Reilly
Flight
4 5 2 3
Samantha Barks
Les Miserables
0 0
Jennifer Ehle
Zero Dark Thirty
0 0
Gloria Rueben
Lincoln
0 0
One Vote Wonders
Judi Dench
Skyfall
4 1 2
Jackie Weaver
Silver Linings Playbook
5 1 1


Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actor BreznicanEllwoodFeinbergHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWhippWloszczyna Votes Total
1 2 Tommy Lee Jones
Lincoln
2 2 3 1 2 3 2 1 3 2 1 2 2 2 14 56
2 3 Robert De Niro
Silver Linings Playbook
4 3 1 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 4 1 4 14 47
3 1 Philip Seymour Hoffman
The Master
1 2 1 1 1 1 4 5 1 3 1 11 45
4 4 Alan Arkin
Argo
3 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 5 2 3 4 3 13 32
5 5 Leonardo DiCaprio
Django Unchained
1 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 8 14
Matthew McConaughey
Magic Mike
4 5 1 3 8
Eddie Redmayne
Les Miserables
5 5 5 3 3
Ewan McGragor
The Impossible
0 0
Javier Bardem
Skyfall
0 0
Dwight Henry
Beasts of the Southern Wild
0 0
One Vote Wonders
Jason Clarke
Zero Dark Thirty
4 1 2
Russell Crowe
Les Miserables
5 1 1
John Goodman
Flight
5 1 1
Samuel L Jackson
Django Unchained
5 1 1

12 Responses to “Gurus o’ Gold: Post-NYFCC/Pre-Globes Nominations”

  1. Luke G. says:

    The most interesting result of these charts is the stark contrast in votes for Philip Seymour Hoffman: seven prognosticators see him as the #1 most likely, but three don’t even place him in the top five. What gives?

  2. Felipe says:

    Marion gave the best performance of this year

  3. YancySkancy says:

    Curious as to whether Dave’s lone prediction for Samuel L. Jackson getting in for DJANGO rather than Leo (who is currently #5 in the consensus) is based on seeing the film or just a hunch.

  4. David Poland says:

    I think Sam’s is the one great performance in Django. And I don’t know that either will get in. The biggest problem is that Jackson may not have anyplace to get a foothold.

    I do think there will probably be a shake-up in that category before it’s over.

  5. Logan says:

    By mid-December last year, two performances had already solidified their hold on the major awards: Christopher Plummer’s and Octavia Spencer’s, although The Artist seemed pretty solid for Best Picture. I don’t see any such early lock this year, including early favorite Anne Hathaway, who isn’t winning the early critics’ awards.

  6. David Poland says:

    Logan – The norm in recent years is, like last year, early supporting front-runners locking in by or at Toronto. Not this year. DeNiro is the only one of the 4 front-runners in Supporting whose film was even out/being seen by voters before mid-October.

  7. Mark Johnson says:

    I’m mostly surprised to see the unanimous Lead Actor prediction for DDL. Does anyone think that they will make him wait for a 3rd Oscar the way they made the beloved Meryl Streep wait? He would be the only 3-time Lead Actor winner as well. Such an interesting race, Lead Actor is.

  8. Stephen Holt says:

    And notice how Ann Dowd has arisen to #6. Chomping at Dame Maggie Smith’s heels in Best Supp. Actress.And this is with her own ONE-WOMAN campaign. No millions of dollars behind her rise in “Compliance.” Only her talent!

    And Jessica Chastain is getting awfully close to the top slot in Best Actress.

    It’s sooo interesting that we have a RACE this year!

  9. antoinew says:

    Best pic – zero dark thirty
    Best director – kathryn bigalow
    best actor – daniel day lewis
    best actress – jessica chastain
    best supporting actor – phillip seymore hoffman
    best supporting actress – @nne hathaway

  10. Aimee says:

    A travesty that Paul Thomas Anderson- the only TRUE auteur on the list of names above besides Ang Lee and Spielberg (maybe Bigelow) is a one vote wonder. How in the hell does Russell or that hack Hooper have a better shot?

  11. Eric M. Van says:

    It boggles my mind that more people don’t have Les Mis as the Best Picture front-runner, despite the excellence of the competition.

    The Lord of the Rings was the most popular novel ever written, took forever to get to the screen, was adapted in a daring and technically innovative fashion, and was rapturously well received. How did that work out at Oscar time? And that was despite a long-standing and severe Academy bias against fantasy.

    Les Mis is the most popular musical of all time, has taken forever to get to the screen, has been adapted in a daring and innovative fashion, and (so far) has been rapturously received. The Academy has no bias against its genre and its director has more of a pedigree than Peter Jackson did. So how does it not win the BP Oscar?

    It would have to disappoint at the box office, right? Given the established fan base, the quality of the product, the accessibility of the material, and the through-the-roof potential for repeat viewings, does that have any chance of happening? Chicago grossed $220.5M in 2012 dollars; it’s hard to see Les Mis doing less than $300.

  12. Melvin Paul-Kamara says:

    Check out the best director section. They said “Zero Dark Forty”

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