MCN Blogs
David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Dreamed A Dream Klady

NOTE/CORRECTION: Len, who is traveling, apparently mistyped the Lincoln gross. I estimate it to be around $127m as of today.

======================================

Look… I am in an awkward place with this. I am not a Les Misérables fan and the numbers on the film are dropping a little faster than they would be expected to be. It’s not bottoming out or a disaster or anything. I want to be as clear as possible. But up less than 3% from Thursday is off the norm, suggesting again, that opening day was a heavy, heavy must-see moment and that the film may not see another 8-figure day. Les Mis needs about a 6% increase from Friday to get to $10m today (Sat) and that would be on the high side of objective expectations. Possible… not outrageous… but not likely. $80m – $85m by the end of the holiday (Jan 1) seems about right. Passing $100m domestic next Saturday. $150m domestic is looking like the cap.

The Hobbit will close in on $250m by the end of the holiday. Maybe a little short. $300m domestic is doable. May be a little short.

Django Unchained is cruising along at about the expected speed of a film released on Christmas Day. It will likely remain in the #2 slot through the holiday, though Les Mis could push it back into #2 slot on Sunday. It will be very close to the Les Mis number to the end, though it won’t get the Oscar bump, which may push Les Mis ahead domestically by $10m – $20m when all is said and done.

Parental Guidance is headed to over $50m domestic overall. Is that good? Bad? No idea what it cost.

Jack Reacher has some really nice buzz and some really iffy numbers. It just hasn’t clicked into people’s consciousness. Knight & Day/Valkyrie numbers are its fate.

This is 40 will pass 40… but not by a lot.

Lincoln remains a happy story, clearing over $130m domestic by the end of the holiday. Argo will top out around $110m domestic.

53 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Dreamed A Dream Klady”

  1. a says:

    Your Lincoln cume grosses are off by several million.

  2. movieman says:

    Wow, that’s a terrible opening for “Promised Land”!
    Sure doesn’t bode well for its (inexplicable) wide release next weekend.
    The three “Paradise Lost” movies must have satisfied everyone’s need-to-know about the Memphis Three ’cause those are some embarrassing numbers.
    I guess it’s official: Disney’s 3-D reboots of their library titles are no longer such a brilliant idea.
    And “Guilt Trip” is officially the biggest bomb of Xmas 2012.

  3. movielocke says:

    I wonder how much the theatrical reissue drives up purchase numbers and awareness of the reissued home video release?

    In other words, even if these rereleases don’t do Lion King numbers they’re basically an extension of the advertising.

  4. movieman says:

    The “Monsters” 3-D re-release looks like the first one that won’t even make back its (admittedly lowball) costs.
    Seems like a loss to me no matter how you cut the pie.

  5. chris says:

    “Monsters” Inc still has several school-free days — it will make back the cost and more.

  6. movieman says:

    The only thing “Monsters” has going for it is a dearth of kid-friendly movies in the marketplace. I don’t think there’s another scheduled for release until mid-February (some 3-D Weinstein ‘toon).
    And “Guardians” (which rebounded nicely, but not enough to save it) will probably be persona non grata post-New Year’s Day since it’s perceived (even though it isn’t really) as a “Christmas Movie.”
    I think the only “Xmas Movie” that continued to perform (REALLY perform) into the new year was “Home Alone” back in 1990-’91.
    I still say “Inc.” goes down as a big disappointment for the Mouse House.
    Even with diminished post-”Lion King” expectations.
    I’m sure they were hoping for at least–what?–$50-million.

  7. Don R. Lewis says:

    I called it a few weeks back when I said PROMISED LAND should quietly walk away from releasing now and come back in the spring. I’m reading a ton of reviews calling it a “message movie” which I don’t think it it at ALL. I think it just seems like one and when you add Damon/Krasinski to it, it feels even more so like one.

    Anyone catch it yet? I’d love to see if anyone feels the way I do.

  8. scooterzz says:

    anyone who thinks of any disney/pixar movie as a ‘total loss’ is a tad out of the loop…
    ‘monsters, inc’ made it’s additional costs back in merch and as a commercial for ‘monsters u’ the moment it was re-released…. the box office means nothing (as with so many disney/pixar titles)….

  9. Lex says:

    I think someone mentioned this last weekend, but is there any earthly explanation why PARENTAL GUIDANCE is kind of a hit, but GUILT TRIP tanked?

    Like, honestly, what’s the difference? Who looks at the GUILT TRIP trailer and goes, “SKIP IT,” then is BOWLED OVER by PARENTAL GUIDANCE? If you see one, don’t you kinda have to see both? Bette vs Babs is pretty much a draw, so wtf is with Billy Crystal, who seems about as relevant to “the kids” as Henny Youngman or Jackie Mason, being a bigger draw than ALLEGED A-LIST SUPERSTAR Seth Rogen?

    I’d be more excited about PROMISED LAND if I had any interest whatsoever in the subject of “fracking.” Why would anyone care about it AT ALL? (Obviously I’ll see the movie regardless, but does anyone care about fracking? And making a movie like that INSTANTLY ALIENATES like 60% of the country from even thinking of seeing it.)

  10. David Poland says:

    Thank you, a. Correction above and on other charts on the site.

  11. movieman says:

    I was very disappointed in “Promised Land,” Don.
    It seemed naive and simplistic, and I felt like I was being preached to much of the time.
    Sure, it’s nicely shot, decently acted, yadda, yadda.
    But for me it’s van Sant’s least satisfying/interesting movie since “Finding Forrester.” (And yeah, I’m including that barely released little movie he did w/ Mia Wasikowska and Dennis Hopper’s kid which I actually thought was underrated.)
    I’m not remotely surprised by its blah opening day b.o. performance.
    I am surprised that Focus is planning to go wide w/ it next weekend, though.

  12. Lex says:

    Going into day three of being haunted and plagued by Sacha Baron Cohen and Helena Bonham Carter’s RANCID MINCING in that GOD-AWFUL “Master of the House” part of Les Miserables, which might be the single worst thing I’ve ever seen in a movie. And I can’t get that infernal song out of my head.

    For musical buffs, isn’t LES MIS supposed to be considered like TOP-TIER musical theater? How come other than said infernal song, and I DREAMED…, NONE of the songs are REMOTELY memorable?

    When I saw Phantom of the Opera, ALL those songs were stuck in my head for six months. Like THINK OF ME and all that. Les Mis’s songs are COMPLETELY bland and forgettable, so why’s this one such a big deal?

    Also that mid-movie stretch where the revolt holes up in some cheesy street set is about the worst-directed 30 minutes of 2012, by anyone. There’s a point where a major player dies, and I had NO IDEA why it had happened or how.

  13. scooterzz says:

    i liked ‘promised land’ for all the reasons others didn’t…it felt so earnest and old-school it was like comfort food…i also really got off on the possible future of a damon/krasinski working relationship…
    fwiw – van sant was just following orders on this one…he was directing it exactly as damon wanted and doing it as a favor…

  14. scooterzz says:

    “For musical buffs, isn’t LES MIS supposed to be considered like TOP-TIER musical theater?”

    no…

  15. Lex says:

    But it’s considered somehow more prestigious than at least Phantom of the Opera, right?

    Or is it just that its fanbase is kind of nutty?

    Also, what’s with Eddie Redmayne? The internet is telling me women find him “beautiful,” and his ROLE CALL of costars now includes K-Stew, Seyfried, Chloe Moretz, Emma Watson, Michelle Williams, etc. Is this guy really considered good-looking or cool? Maybe it’s just that I despise male redheads, but this guy always seems so punchable and dorky… like his doppelganger Caleb Landry Jones, also insufferable.

  16. movieman says:

    Pretty much agree w/ your assessment of “Miz” and its mostly atonal score, Lex.
    I think there’s actually two decent (i.e., not completely forgettable/”Don’t-they-all-just-sound-alike?”) songs, the other being Barks’ big number (“On My Own”?)
    Hated Bonham Carter and Cohen; hated that annoying Cockney street urchin who seemed to have wandered in from some second-tier road company production of “Oliver!;” found Redmayne a largely wan and colorless male ingenue; thought Jackman’s old(er) man make-up was laughable; and I couldn’t believe how flat-out atrocious the CGI was.
    I really can’t remember the last “big” movie I saw where the effects work were so patently synthetic/phony-looking. It was like staring at a 1999-era video game screen.
    Say what you will about “The Hobbit” (and Jackson), but the FX in that film are fantastic.

  17. movieman says:

    ….WAS so patently synthetic/phony-looking.

    Gawd, Scooter.
    I really, really wanted to like “Promised Land,” but I just couldn’t muster up even the mildest of enthusiasm for it.
    It was like some deadly earnest (and uber p.c.) 21st century gloss on Elia Kazan’s “Wild River.”
    …minus the fascinating Method madness of Monty Clift and Lee Remick’s feral, live-wire sensuality.

  18. scooterzz says:

    lex — the popularity of ‘les miz’, much like that of ‘cats’ and ‘rent’, is just unexplainable… they are to musical theater what ‘raging waters’ is to amusement parks…just a chance for the poor to pee in the pool…and the fans are legion and rabid…go figure…

    on the subject of eddie redmayne: he’s pretty hot…

  19. scooterzz says:

    movieman — i know and agree…it was just ‘right time, right place’ i guess… maybe it was just that i so enjoyed the people involved, it carried me through…whatever…i certainly enjoyed it more than ‘les miz’ so there’s that….
    (btw, did you get your little ‘les miz’ ipod? now, THERE’S a mixed blessing!)

  20. berg says:

    http://youtu.be/USTQgu229Wc
    marie osmond explains Dada

  21. movieman says:

    Yeah, it came yesterday w/ the soundtrack cd.
    Needless to say I was overcome w/ joy and have been playing it non-stop ever since, lol.
    I figure if I listen to it long enough I’ll finally be able to distinguish one song from another.
    On second thought, maybe not.
    I will agree that “PL” was far easier to sit through than “Miz.”
    The fact that it was 45 minutes shorter definitely helped, though.

  22. Yancy says:

    Man, you he-man woman haters really have it out for Les Miz! And in what world is Dave already calling the final gross? That’s pretty short-sighted. Clearly, you’re all rooting against it. Luckily, you have no say in the matter.

  23. dinovelvet says:

    Re: Guilt Trip, I think the problem is that the two stars’ fanbases are completely incompatible. Rogen’s audience is teenagers and fratboys who want to see him getting stoned, saying fuck a lot, puking, the usual – everything Streisand’s fans don’t want to see. Rogen fans see its a PG and co-stars Barbara Streisand, and they pass. Babs’ fans take one look at Rogen and decide to go for Billy and Bette instead.

  24. film fanatic says:

    This isn’t meant to be an attack, just noting a double-standard: for all the shit Lex gets about having crushes on jailbait, Scooterzz, who is (presumably) easily old enough to be Lex’s father, calling Eddie Redmayne “pretty hot” is the equivalent of Lex lusting after a fetus in utero.

  25. movieman says:

    I think $110-million is a little low for “Argo.”
    As of yesterday, it was nearly $108-million. Ad there’s still a (very) long march to the Oscars. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the addition of 1,000+ screens coinciding w/ the Oscar nominations.
    It doesn’t hit dvd until February 19th.

  26. samka says:

    Re The Guilt Trip/Parental Guidance-

    Parental Guidance is a family film for young kids.

    The Guilt Trip is a family film for mothers and their 30 year old children. Not sure that is much of a target audience.

    Having seen both films, PG makes TGT look like high art and Streisand is terrific.

  27. Foamy Squirrel says:

    Re: Les the Miserable

    Yes, it’s considered one of the “Big” stage musicals – at one point wasn’t it the longest running west end shows? Mostly by dint of the “revolving stage” which for some reason every smaller production feels they have to mimic.

    The accents are all over the place – besides the cockney, I swear one of the students had a scottish accent. The songs seemed a bit chopped from the original – I think 30 minutes or so got hacked, most noticeably “Little People” which only features the reprise on the barricade. The “interlude” “speaking as singing” stuff makes most of it completely unmemorable, and “Bring Him Home” has to be one of the most excruciating things I’ve heard in a long time. But, if I had to list the memorable ones:

    On My Own
    I Dreamed a Dream (honestly, even I get these two confused at times)
    Do You Hear the People Sing
    Master of the House
    Stars (in the original – Crowe delivered it flatter than a pancake, someone needs to show him his “My name is Maximus Decimus Meridius, Commander of the Felix Legions, husband to a murdered wife…” speech to remind him how it’s done)

    Valjean gets maaaaaybe “Who Am I?” but only because he reprises it so damn often. Cosette gets nothing – it’s the single most worthless female lead role in musical history. Eddie Redmayne pleasantly surprised me, since Marius is the other half of the most worthless romantic couple ever. The big thing is that I’m sad that Samantha Barks is going to be majorly overshadowed by Hathaway for Supporting Actress, as Barks knocked that role out of the park. (And Lex SPOILERS she grabs the rifle from one of the soldiers who is about to shoot Marius. Yeah, it could have been handled a lot better – I have a lot of issues with the direction…)

    Bonham-Carter and Cohen at least bring a little levity to the business (I think the “Collette/Courgette” thing was new for the film), as I don’t think I could stand 2 1/2 hours of “Dreamed a Dream” weeping and sobbing. The “aging” makeup was fucking terrible. The CGI seemed really weird interspersed with the shakycam – it gave the odd sensation that they’d spent so much on FX that they couldn’t afford a steadycam. And the last 30 minutes make no sense whatsoever (“Don’t tell Cosette about me, but tomorrow I’ll change my mind and write her a confession anyway” “I promise not to tell Cosette about you as people finding out her father is a criminal will destroy my family’s reputation, oh but you saved my life so therefore I’ll break my promise”, and don’t get me started on Javert…)

    So, unusual cinematography, uneven direction, “eh” performances, surprisingly good performances, and a couple of standout performances. I still feel it was a better movie experience than Hobbit though, which I feel has lost a lot of the LotR magic…

  28. moviefan says:

    Aw, look at all the ‘cool’ guys continue to dump on Les Mis. I’m happy to say I think David’s review is wrong and also think his total #s are wrong.

    I loved it and obviously many other moviegoers do as well. A+ and A Cinemascores. This movie has fantastic WOM and I believe it will have great legs. Definitely several Oscar noms. May not win BP but who knows?

  29. Chris says:

    So if someone does not like Les Miz, then that means they are either he-man women haters or ‘cool’ guys? What the fuck is wrong with having an opinion that doesn’t match your own? Like the shitty movie all you want, who gives a fuck? There is no need to make judgement calls about people you don’t know just because they don’t like the same films as you.

  30. christian says:

    DP predicted ARGO wouldn’t go past 75 million. He doesn’t to admit defeat.

  31. scooterzz says:

    and, points for the ‘he-man woman haters club’ reference….

  32. YancySkancy says:

    film fanatic: Eddie Redmayne is 30 years old.

  33. Geoff says:

    Looks like Skyfall is inching towards $300 million domestic and it’s likely to be the only one, it will likely be the biggest film of the season – who would have thought that???

    As long as the Bond track record is, how many decades has it been since a Bond film won a holiday or summer season?

  34. Joe Leydon says:

    Geoff: Seriously, I don’t think that’s happened since Thunderball.

  35. Js Partisan says:

    Yeah, I am with Yancy on this one and Chris, come the fuck on. People judge people all the fucking time on their movie taste (Hello, I am typing this, and some people in this very thread have given me shit in their assumption I really really dug that “Spawn” movie and would have no idea what the fuck “Tokyo Drifter” is). They do it here, there, and everywhere. Let’s not act as if that does not happen every time you are in a big box store, and see a woman pick up a DVD of “The Vow.” People get judged on this shit and the Les Miz hate does seem to be a bit much. I wonder if this is time to point out that Dave and some other critics are in love with whatever the fuck “This is 40″ is, but Les Miz throws them in a tizzy.

    Also, you folks should know that the BD for “Monsters Inc” has been out of print for a year and a half now. There’s a new re-release coming out early next year. That aside, why didn’t they put “The Incredibles” out in 3D first? If any one of those Pixar films should be in 3D, “The Incredibles” should be on the top of that list.

  36. LYT says:

    JS – probably because there isn’t a forthcoming second installment of The Incredibles.

  37. Foamy Squirrel says:

    Oh, I really liked Les Mis – to the point where I’m dragging my family to the Gold Lounge so they can sit in the comfy chair and drink their wine (it’s the only way I could convince them to go). It’s got major problems, both musically and directorially – I was mainly agreeing with Lex that there’s issues – but it’s still one of the best movie-going experiences of the year for me.

  38. Lex says:

    Zero Dark Thirty: A-plus
    On the Road: B
    Jack Reacher: B
    This is 40: B-plus
    Django Unchained: B-plus
    Les Miserables: C-plus
    Not Fade Away: A-minus
    The Impossible: B
    The Guilt Trip: B-minus

  39. pj says:

    There is justice in the world. Django will more then likely beat Lez Zzz this weekend.

  40. christian says:

    LE MIZ aint my bag baby but nothing wrong with two historical fantasias — five if you count ARGO, LINCOLN and ZDT — attracting crowds.

  41. movieman says:

    …I also think “This is 40″ will go above $40-million.
    It should be around $36-million this weekend, and there’s clearly some add’l room to grow.
    I think it has a good shot at beating Apatow’s (considerably more expensive) “Funny People” which finished its domestic run at a disappointing $52-million.

  42. Gus says:

    Truly stunned to see Lex give OTR a B+. I thought it was one of the best movies of the year and surely – SURELY – played any K-Stewer. Lex, what happened, fill me in here.

  43. bulldog68 says:

    I actually think Hobbit has a chance of crossing $300m. It’s currently running neck and neck with Skyfall so it’ll be a really tight race to see who comes out on top.

    Skyfall had some pretty good legs but January has been very kind to the LotRs movies, so we’ll see if Hobbit, which is running ahead of Fellowship at the same point can maintain that momentum. By 12/30, Fellowship was at $163m after 13 days of release with $150m left in the tank. Hobbit is at $222m after 17 days. I just don’t see it dropping so precipitously, especially with the dearth of family movies in January, that it will not make up an additional $78m, but I’ve been wrong before. it should be noted that Fellowship was $189m after the same 17 days.

    Another comparison would be I am Legend which had $194m after the same 17 days and with the exact same calendar configuration, and it made another $60m after 12/30. Hobbit is currently kicking Legend’s ass, so I think $300m is completely doable, and in the process just edge Skyfall for the win.

  44. christian says:

    Apatow needs to stop making movies with his by now unfunny tropes of “gross gag followed by deep insight” – Rudd asking his wife to look up his asshole describes Apatow’s contract with his audience. And its Charlie Sheen TV sitcom level idiocy. Shit com level actually. He’s a genuis for his work on LARRY SANDERS and FREAKS AND GEEKS but hes surrounded by syncophants telling him that wharever turd he drops is West LA profundity.

  45. Geoff says:

    Bulldog I see what you’re talking about regarding comparisons between FOTR and The Hobbit but the word of mouth was MUCH better on Fellowship and you forget that Fellowship (just like TTT and ROTK) had major Oscar buzz going into January and got a Best Picture nomination – no way that’s happening to The Hobbit.

    It WILL be a tight race no doubt but I can’t see MGM not just dragging Skyfall over the $300 million mark if for nothing other than bragging rights.

  46. Js Partisan says:

    Christian, Apatow needs to write dramas. If he takes out his schlocky bs and replaces it with his earnest reflections on life, then his movies might actually matter to people. Right now, they seem to matter to only a few critics, who identify with these characters, and no one else does.

  47. christian says:

    I saw ALbert Brooks deliver a blistering keynote speech on Adam Sandler’s shit gag ouvre in 1999 – how is Apatow any different now? He should go in the Woody/Nichols direction and stop trying to sate Seth Rogen fans and white male critics….

  48. Don R. Lewis says:

    Totally respect you guys’ opinions on PROMISED LAND but am I totally wrong or is no one else getting that the film is actually pretty devious and NOT a “frackers suck!” message movie like it’s being described and criticized as being?

    I mean, the farmers in the film (and, in life) are failing miserably and there’s really no reason to stay on their land except for pride and no where else to go. They’re being offered a way out and that’s not only a valid point in the movie and in life, it’s also Damon’s characters motivation. Had his hometown been offered hundreds of thousands or even millions to get the hell out of dodge before the local plant shut down, his hometown would still be around.

    But obviously fracking can destroy the environment even though that’s not the case “always.” So if an agency comes in and gives you hundreds of thousands of dollars (or, millions) and you can move somewhere else while they “rape” your land, is that a “bad” thing? As is stated in the movie (and is again, true in life) most of these failing farms are on government assistance and that assistance gets lower and lower each month. If “we” as a nation can’t even support the people who used to put food on our tables, why the hell should they continue to work land that doesn’t give them food for THEIR tables?

    Anyway, those are my thoughts on the film. If I were in the farmers position, I’d have a lot to think about and weigh. I thought the film laid that stuff out really well and I loved the characters. I thought the theme was get the facts and think for yourself and make an informed decision rather than a message of “fracking is bad.”

  49. cadavra says:

    Another problem with 3-D-ing INCREDIBLES is that it’s rendered in a faux 2-D style (for which it was originally intended) and thus may be harder to add depth to.

    And h/t to Dino for confirming my earlier statement why GUILT flopped vis-a-vis PARENTAL. Our society has become so demographically fractured that cross-generational star casting in non-tentpole pictures (especially comedies) is usually a risk. I can practically guarantee you that if GUILT TRIP had paired Rogen with Streep instead of Streisand, it would not have done any better.

  50. Js Partisan says:

    Fracking has led to earthquakes in Arkansas. It’s bad and if Gus isn’t selling it as the absolute evil that it is, then “Promised Land” is a failure on that basis alone.

  51. Lex says:

    Gus, re: ON THE ROAD:

    I still thought it was really good, K-Stew was amazing as ever, the shot of her rolling a joint in the beginning is easily one of the hottest images of 2012. And as many raves as Hedlund has been getting, I liked Sam Riley just as much… Loved the look, the tone, etc.

    But it rubbed me the wrong way that it was edited down from a more explicit version that played EVERYWHERE else; The “car scene” now removes K-Stew’s nudity, which set me off; And weird and amusing as the stretch with Viggo and Amy Adams is, I didn’t think it was set up in a way that made any sense; How does Sal KNOW Old Bull? Why is Elizabeth Moss at their house in NOLA when they dropped her off in Tucson, and again, how do any of them KNOW EACH OTHER? That stretch was so baffling, it threw me out of the movie for another ten minutes. I also wanted more Dunst, who was raw and real and kind of heartbreaking.

    I think by very nature of how episodic that movie inherently has to be, it’s a hard one to totally warm to, though for long stretches where it’s all picturesque and under GIANT SKIES and such, it reminded me of both INTO THE WILD and FIVE EASY PIECES, which is a pretty flattering comparison. So a B-plus or so isn’t too shabby.

  52. Joshua says:

    Les Miz has some stirring music in it, but I don’t know that I ever want to see it in anything other than a concert version. It’s just too long and there are too many characters who aren’t that interesting given too much stage time.

    So, yeah, I recommend the 10th Anniversary Concert. It’s good stuff.

    Lea Salonga’s On My Own

  53. berg says:

    here’s the thing about On The Road …. Even as the film ends and we witness Sal and Dean leaving a trail of broken hearts (both male and female) they are also broken themselves by the system they tried so poetically to subvert.

Leave a Reply

The Hot Blog

Quote Unquotesee all »

“I was fortunate to be in the two big film epics of the last part of the 20th century: Godfather and “Lonesome Dove” on television, which was my favorite part. That’s my “Hamlet.” The English have Shakespeare; the French, Molière. In Argentina, they have Borges, but the western is ours. I like that.”
~ Robert Duvall

“He’s not one of my heroes. He doesn’t touch me or inspire me. There are so many people who inspire me, so many people who touch my heart. It doesn’t matter if he’s not a hero of mine. It doesn’t matter if I don’t tell the whole world how honoured I am to share a prize with a man who made somebody play with words over the years. He’s a hero in cinema historically, but he’s not a personal hero of mine. Jean-Luc Godard did this press release and he mentioned he would never go and see Mommy in theatres because he already knew what Mommy was about: another ‘TV movie’ and that nowadays everything is predictable. He’s this old grinchy man. He’s the grinch from Switzerland in the mountain. Deaf, blind, smoking, literally. Basically being provocative about everything.”
~ Xavier Dolan On Jean-Luc Godard