By David Poland firstname.lastname@example.org
Friday Estimates by Dreamed A Dream Klady
NOTE/CORRECTION: Len, who is traveling, apparently mistyped the Lincoln gross. I estimate it to be around $127m as of today.
Look… I am in an awkward place with this. I am not a Les Misérables fan and the numbers on the film are dropping a little faster than they would be expected to be. It’s not bottoming out or a disaster or anything. I want to be as clear as possible. But up less than 3% from Thursday is off the norm, suggesting again, that opening day was a heavy, heavy must-see moment and that the film may not see another 8-figure day. Les Mis needs about a 6% increase from Friday to get to $10m today (Sat) and that would be on the high side of objective expectations. Possible… not outrageous… but not likely. $80m – $85m by the end of the holiday (Jan 1) seems about right. Passing $100m domestic next Saturday. $150m domestic is looking like the cap.
The Hobbit will close in on $250m by the end of the holiday. Maybe a little short. $300m domestic is doable. May be a little short.
Django Unchained is cruising along at about the expected speed of a film released on Christmas Day. It will likely remain in the #2 slot through the holiday, though Les Mis could push it back into #2 slot on Sunday. It will be very close to the Les Mis number to the end, though it won’t get the Oscar bump, which may push Les Mis ahead domestically by $10m – $20m when all is said and done.
Parental Guidance is headed to over $50m domestic overall. Is that good? Bad? No idea what it cost.
Jack Reacher has some really nice buzz and some really iffy numbers. It just hasn’t clicked into people’s consciousness. Knight & Day/Valkyrie numbers are its fate.
This is 40 will pass 40… but not by a lot.
Lincoln remains a happy story, clearing over $130m domestic by the end of the holiday. Argo will top out around $110m domestic.