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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by High Flying Klady

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22 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by High Flying Klady”

  1. bulldog68 says:

    How’s this for a cause for some champagne popping over at Dreamworks Animation; Madagascar 3 stands on the verge of being their most successful animated release internationally, standing at $512m and being $1m shy of Shrek Forever After. Certainly did not expect that.

  2. etguild2 says:

    Foreigners love them some circus wigs.

    Probably some champagne over at Universal for TED as well, which is now their top-grossing original comedy worldwide, and is on the verge of becoming just the 2nd R-rated non-sequel to hit $500 million worldwide (PASSION OF THE CHRIST).

  3. Aaron Aradillas says:

    Is there a reason why the font of the weeknd chart looks so bad? I can barely read it.

  4. BoulderKid says:

    It’s hard to say that Paramount didn’t leave ten million on the table this weekend by not putting Flight in 3,000 theaters. Hopefully the movie will expand in coming weeks so that less populated areas can check out the film. I would see it today, but right now Cloud Atlas is the priority seeing that it will be out of a lot of theaters come next week.

  5. alynch says:

    Speaking of Cloud Atlas, it’s obviously a bomb but how much did Warner Brothers even spend on it? I vaguely recall reading some article that pegged their investment as only being in the mid-20s. I suspect it’s higher than that, but I have no idea.

  6. anghus says:

    every article i read on Cloud Atlas put Warner Brothers at 20 million for the U.S distro.

    Oh, and did you guys see those international Skyfall numbers. Mind blowing.

  7. Tuck Pendelton says:

    Haven’t seen Cloud Atlas yet, but that 46% hold, while not “great” is certainly not as bad as I’m sure some we’re expecting giving it’s mixed reaction. I don’t think WB put much into it either. But there’s marketing costs, publicity premieres…it has a way to go.

    Saw Flight last night. Packed house. You could tell some of the audience wasn’t quite with it. But some loved it and got a health applause. I’m still mulling my reaction. Overall I liked it.

  8. etguild2 says:

    Yeah the SKYFALL number is amazing. Already the #3 Bond film internationally, the #2 Bond film ever in the UK behind CASINO ROYALE, and the #20 film of the year worldwide.

  9. Globally, Skyfall ($287 million) has already out-grossed every pre-Brosnan 007 film and should, by the end of next Monday, outgross every non-Craig entry to boot (Die Another Day earned $443 million). At this point, with a projected (by me, fwiw) $85-$100 million five-day US opening, $250 million US and $800 million worldwide feels frighteningly plausible. I don’t think it was the best 007 ever or anything that pie-in-the-sky, but I can’t imagine any moviegoer walking away unsatisfied in the pure ‘I wanted a big-scale, smart/exciting adventure’ vein. The 007 versus Twilight battle is going to be a lot more fun (and perhaps just a little closer, especially worldwide) than I expected two months ago.

  10. cadavra says:

    In the long run, SKYFALL will probably prevail over BD2. There are a lot more adults than there are dumb teenage girls.

  11. movieman says:

    Blah limited bow for “Quartet” (surprising for the type of film that used to be catnip for arthouse auds) and downright disastrous limited bows for “This Must be the Place” (despite an A.O. Scott NYT rave), “The Bay” and “The Details.”
    Gotta believe the VOD factor had something to do with the latter two films’ dismal performances.

  12. anghus says:

    my UK friends have been wigging out over how good Skyfall is. Cant wait to see it. Nice to have Bond globally mixing it up with the top films of the year. That feels where Bond should be.

  13. matthew says:

    Yeah, but dumb teenage girls will go see the last Twilight movie two or three times a pop, regardless of quality. Harry Potter 7.2 made almost 400 million more WW than the penultimate one, although it was also a much better movie than 7.1.

  14. Krillian says:

    Remember when a film directed by Barry Levinson was a big deal? Can you believe THE BAY was directed by Levinson? How far hath he fallen?

  15. Rob says:

    Did anyone else see A Late Quartet? It’s terribly made, with mismatched shots and bad ADR getting in the way of good work by Hoffman, Keener, and Walken. Imogen Poots is sort of lousy in it, though.

  16. chris says:

    I think “Quartet” is going to be catnip for arthouse audiences, but I agree with Rob: “A Late Quartet” is more like what end up in the litter box.

  17. sanj says:

    Barry Levinson movies never seemed to be huge commercial success ….hes not running around trying to get a directing job for a huge comic book movie – he’s mostly done tv work and continues … did he do any dp/30′s ?
    plus he has grey hair and looks old .

    my favorite thing he’s done is homicide and oz … great stories …and yet they aren’t on tv anymore in repeats.
    they should kick out csi or law and order for awhile and give homicide another chance .

    the bay is a found footage movie . something he hasn’t really done before …

    if Barry wants to be more famous and stuff he really should do a dp/30…then the comic book movie offers
    will come in.

  18. scooterzz says:

    i’m certainly no fan of the ‘twilight’ series but will admit that ‘breaking dawn pt. 2′ is easily the best of the lot…much more entertaining than i expected, nicely paced, surprisingly self-aware and pretty funny…a nice end to what seemed an endless franchise…

  19. Chucky says:

    All you circle jerks forget the reason for the stilted box office. Much of Greater New York is still in the dark after Hurricane Sandy.

    You can’t go out to see all the overhyped product coming out of Hollywood if your local megaplex/mall theater/whatever doesn’t have power.

  20. Bulldog68 says:

    What “stilted box office?” The numbers were up over the same weekend last year with no Sandy in play.

  21. StellaPD says:

    Yeah here’s the opening paragraph of boxofficeguru’s weekend recap:

    The holiday box office season started with a bang thanks to the one-two punch of two new releases that pulled in sold-out audiences – the animated video game comedy Wreck-It Ralph and the Denzel Washington drama Flight. The pair led the top ten to a healthy 19% jump over the same frame last year. And with tens of millions affected last week by the deadly hurricane Sandy, it was questionable what impact theaters would see but compelling product brought people out of their homes and into the multiplexes putting the film industry in a good position going into the final weeks of the year.”

  22. Gracias por el contenido. Yo he encargado copias de DVD en AMITOSAI y me salieron excelentes. Por suerte no se trataba de copias caseras realizadas con computadoras e impresoras comunes de pesina calidad.

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The Hot Blog

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Guardians of the Galaxy 3.8 3462 -21% 262.1
As Above/So Below 3.2 2640 NEW 3.2
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2.7 3543 -41% 153.3
If I Stay 2.6 3003 -62% 23.1
The November Man 2.2 2776 NEW 3.9
Let's Be Cops 2 3010 -39% 51.1
When the Game Stands Tall 1.4 2673 -52% 12.1
The Giver 1.3 2805 -37% 27.6
The Hundred-Foot Journey 1.1 1918 -30% 35.9
The Expendables 3 0.85 2564 -55% 30.5
Also Debuting
Cantinflas 0.81 382
Ghostbusters - 30th Anniversary 0.49 784
Rabhasa 0.1 86
Double Di Trouble 38,300 33
Life of Crime 30,600 35
Kundo: Age of Rampant 28,900 26
Swearnet 28,300 88
Raja Natwarlal 22,100 74
Peruchazhi 14,100 13
The Congress 7,560 13
The Last of Robin Hood 7,100 2
Starred Up 2,900 2
Temporary Family 2,800 5
Through a Lens Darkly 2,750 1
Road to Ninja: Naruto the Movie 2,700 7
Last Weekend 1,350 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office