1. Lincoln
2. Argo
3. Les Miserables
4. Silver Linings Playbook
5. Django Unchained
6. The Hobbit
7. Life of Pi
8. Flight
9. Zero Dark Thirty
10. Amour
r/u Beasts of the Southern Wild, Anna Karenina, This is 40

Director, only confident that these top two will survive the remaining season to the nomination, very competitive this year 3-5 could all fall out:
1. Spielberg
2. Hooper
3. Russell
4. Affleck
5. Haneke
6. Bigelow
r/u Jackson, Tarentino, Lee, Zemeckis, Apatow

Actor, this is the most competitive I remember the category being, top two are set, but the next three could change wildly (as wildly as former frontrunner Phoenix nearly being out of the race at this point):

1. Daniel Day Lewis
2. Denzel Washington
3. Hugh Jackman
4. Bradley Cooper
5. Jean Louis Trintignant
6. Joaquin Phoenix
r/u John Hawkes, Jamie Foxx, poor-man’s-Toby-Jones, Tom Holland, Paul Rudd

Actress, so wide open it is fascinating, Lawrence is winning and a free-for-all on the nominations:

1. Jennifer Lawrence
2. Quvenzhané Wallis
3. Emmanuelle Riva
4. Kiera Knightley
5. Helen Mirren
6. Marion Cotillard
r/u Naomi Watts, Jessica Chastain, Leslie Mann

Best Supporting Actor, just a crazy category with Django, 0D30, Hobbit and Les Mis yet to drop only TLJ is assured:

1. Tommy Lee Jones
2. Alan Arkin
3. Russell Crowe
4. Robert DeNiro
5. Leonardo Dicaprio
6. Richard Armitage
r/u Christoph Waltz, Dwight Henry, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Jude Law, Javiar Bardem, Matthew McConaughey, Ewan McGregor

Supporting Actress, the Les Mis girls, will they tie Tom Jones or surpass it?:

1. Anne Hathaway
2. Sally Field
3. Amy Adams
4. Helen Hunt
5. Samantha Barks
6. Kerry Washington
r/u Maggie Smith, Amanda Seyfried, Frances McDormand, Kelly Reilly, Helena Bonham Carter, Barbera Streisand

Samantha Barks is happening, Ewan McGregor is happening, Hugh Jackman is happening, maybe Matthew McConaughey, Richard Gere can also happen (BFCA good score and a Globe nomination assured).

It’s a small difference, but sometimes that happens. Sometimes I think, well, it’ll be a stretch for this whatever to get nominated, but if it does, it ought to have a good chance at a win.

That may be the case here. Hunt is kind of an obvious one to nominate, given that she’s the female lead in a two-actor film and has a very challenging and nuanced role. Hathaway, by contrast, might have a tougher time, as votes for that film might be split between its larger cast. It’s also more of an unknown quantity at this point, given that the film has not yet been widely seen (I think?). I still think she’ll be nominated, but you can make the case that she won’t.

But once the nominations are in, I don’t see Hunt snagging the win, whereas Hathaway will probably be an attractive target for votes if she turns up on the short list.

I agree that it’s more likely Hathaway’s year than Hunt’s.