Gurus o’ Gold: Thanks, About To Be Given The Last 4 Films


Rank Last Chart Best Picture (Unranked) BreznicanEllwoodFeinbergHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWhippWloszczyna Votes Total
1 2 Lincoln
DreamWorks/Disney
3 2 2 2 1 4 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 2 14 128
2 1 Argo
Warner Bros
2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 4 2 2 2 2 3 14 127
3 3 Silver Linings Playbook
The Weinstein Company
4 4 3 3 4 1 4 3 2 4 5 4 3 4 14 106
4 4 Les Miserables
Universal
5 3 4 4 6 3 3 7 5 6 3 6 8 1 14 90
5 5 Life of Pi
20th Century Fox
1 5 7 5 3 5 5 9 6 5 4 3 5 5 14 86
6 6 Zero Dark Thirty
Sony Pictures
7 5 7 9 6 7 4 1 3 9 8 9 7 13 61
7 7 The Master
The Weinstein Company
9 9 6 7 8 10 8 10 7 4 6 11 37
8 8 Beasts of the Southern Wild
Fox Searchlight
8 8 8 9 8 6 7 7 8 9 30
9 9 Amour
Sony Classics
5 8 5 6 5 5 26
10 10 Flight
Paramount
7 10 8 10 8 8 8 7 18
The Impossible
6 6 6 9 4 17
Skyfall
10 10 10 7 6 5 12
Django Unchained
7 9 10 9 4 9
Moonrise Kingdom
9 9 10 7 4 9
Anna Karenina
6 10 10 3 7
The Sessions
10 9 2 3
One Vote Wonders
Hitchcock
9 1 2
The Hobbit
10 1 1
The Dark Knight Rises
10 1 1

30 Responses to “Gurus o’ Gold: Thanks, About To Be Given The Last 4 Films”

  1. VCQ says:

    Lincoln: long, dull and boring! Some members of the audience walked out of the theater when I went to see it.

    Can I get a refund from the critics putting it in no. 1?!?

  2. Troofire says:

    to VCQ: No refunds for dumb people who are unable to appreciate great writing and acting. You should stick to Kung Fu Panda movies.

  3. Bob Burns says:

    Karger is Fate vs the rest.

  4. VCQ says:

    To Troofire: if you think that you know me or my taste in movies, then you are one sorry, dumb individual. I was just telling how I feel and actual experience and you can’t personalize things just because or maybe you like Lincoln. You got that!

  5. Stephen Holt says:

    Les Miz will be Number One next week, after it starts screening this weekend. And also perhaps Jessica Chastain in Bactress for ZDT.

  6. Daniella Isaacs says:

    In defense of VCQ, I like Bela Tarr and Andrei Tarkovski films and I thought LINCOLN dragged a bit. DDL deserves Oscar #3, but other than that… kind of thin stuff as cinema.

  7. jim says:

    I agree with Stephen Holt. Les Miz is already getting great reviews from the London screenings. People are praising the film , the performances, and the cinematography, etc…

    Silver Linings Playbook is one of the most overrated films this year. Bradley Cooper is the only actor that gives a standout performance. Jennifer Lawrence doesn’t deserve the Oscar buzz she is getting. It felt like she was a teenager trying to portray a mature adult. Her youthfulness and lack of maturity hurt her performance.

  8. YancySkancy says:

    So DP has LES MIZ at #7, beneath the rather divisive ANNA KARENINA? Is this over-compensation for the old PHANTOM OF THE OPERA prediction? :)

    I’ve seen exactly none of the contenders, but it’s hard to see how any serious prognosticator could have LES MIZ out of the top 2 or 3 at this point.

  9. David Poland says:

    Based on what, Yancey?

  10. YancySkancy says:

    Same as anybody–trailers, buzz, promotion, other prognosticators, and, of course, just a personal hunch. I know this isn’t anything close to a science, and I’m sure I’ve missed some pontifications on why LES MIZ won’t be a sure thing, or why ANNA KARENINA can’t be counted out, but my general impression has been that the former is a favorite and the latter is a long shot. With no dog in the fight at this point, I’m perfectly content to be wrong.

  11. the ghost of easter says:

    Why is Moonrise Kingdom dropping so fast… I am not saying that it’s an oscar-worthy movie but it IS as far as I know the only movie produced by Scott Rudin this year with atleast a shot at a best picture-nod… and in recent years he always managed to getvatleast one of his films nominated…

  12. Goodvibe61 says:

    Here we go again. We discover that a few actors can actually carry a tune and so everyone has to drop to their knees and hand out Academy Awards.

    Give me a break.

  13. YancySkancy says:

    Yes, Goodvibe61, the acting categories are routinely jam-packed with performances in musicals, especially in recent years. And they always win! We should definitely call for a boycott on nominating anyone who sings onscreen, no matter how great their performance might be otherwise.

    I mean, look at the stats for Oscar-winning performances in musicals:

    Best Actor: Four winners (though it can be argued that James Cagney, Yul Brynner and Rex Harrison didn’t actually have to “carry a tune” all that much)

    Best Actress: Seven winners (that’s if you count Luise Rainer’s non-singing role; and I didn’t even count Ellen Burstyn or Diane Keaton, who sing in non-musicals)

    Best Supporting Actor: Only three here, I think (and that’s if you count Barry Fitzgerald’s non-singing role, but not James Dunn, who sings in a non-musical)

    Best Supporting Actress: I think it’s three here, too.

    So that’s like, what? 17 winners out of 300+? Give me a break, indeed.

  14. movieman says:

    Despite all the awards rattling by “Les Miz” and “ZDT” this weekend, l think it’s too soon for Hooper (and Bigelow for that matter) to repeat.

    Do you really think a journeyman (Hooper, who just won 2 years ago) or a–ewwww!!!!!!!!!–woman (who just won 3 years ago) will bag two Best Director Oscars before, say, Marty Scorsese?

    Which means that “Silver Linings” and “Lincoln” (it’s never too soon for the Academy to throw another statuette at SS; and he hasn’t won since ’98) are still the true front runners.

    Unless “SL” refuses to pick up steam at the b.o. (weirdly, it hasn’t so far), I’d say it’s Spielberg (and “Lincoln”s) award(s) to lose.

    Consider:
    (A) A “BIG” historical topic
    (B) DDL in a once-in-a-lifetime performance
    (C) SS, the crowned prince of Tinseltown
    (D) A major critical AND (will wonders never cease?) b.o. success
    (E) A movie that makes Hollywood feel good about itself.

    If Harvey wasn’t in the mix, I’d say it was “no-contest” at this point.

  15. Prettok says:

    Regardless of what wins Best Picture, I think Affleck has Best Director sewn up.

  16. Alan Vezina says:

    My only fear that Ben Affleck is nominated for Argo as best actor as the Master of Disguise of Argo. He would have been better to play a bad Iranian guy with his beard and no expression on his face. I like him but such a limited actor. He should have give the role to another actor. Why not a latino, this guy is from latin origin. As for the best director. I found this film has the same defect as Midnight Express. So much hype for so little. Go rent Battle of Algiers and listen the commentaries of Soderberg and Spyke Lee and compare the 2 films.

    I found Argo bland and bi-dimensional the bad Iranians vs the good Americans

  17. movieman says:

    The Academy does have a precedent of honoring (successful) first-time actor/directors.
    Redford, Costner….

  18. Daniella Isaacs says:

    Affleck is the one to beat since actor-directors always have a leg up over poor “director only” types. Both Redford and Costner won over Scorsese at his best. Gibson, Beatty, Allen, etc. have won in what were (or should have been) close contests. The list goes on. The reason LES MIZ has a much better chance of winning than PHANTOM ever did, is the quality of the music. Just listen to five minutes of each and the quality of the former is clear. Also, the genre underneath the former (historical drama/adaptation of literary classic) is more prestigious than that under the latter (horror melodrama based on–let’s face it–pulp fiction.) I hear the screenings of LES MIS are going great. My (meaningless) predictions: LES MIZ best pic, supporting actress, tons of tech awards; ARGO best director (in one of those not-all-that-rare splits), LINCOLN best actor (with Jackman giving him a run for his money) and for Kushner’s screenplay.

  19. YancySkancy says:

    movieman: Affleck’s not a first-time director. But yeah, it may well be his to lose at this point. On the other hand, except for Beatty, the other actor-turned-directors mentioned won for films that also took Best Picture, which ARGO may have a harder time doing.

    Daniella’s predictions sound about right to me for now.

  20. movieman says:

    That was a misprint, Yancy. Sorry.
    They still like giving the directing prize to well-liked actor-turned-directors.
    And the fact that Affleck has proven himself w/ 2 previous well-regarded films definitely helps his chances.
    “Argo,” however, does seem to be losing some of its awards steam as some new entries have hit the Oscar stage (“Lincoln,” “Silver Linings,” etc.)

  21. Daniella Isaacs says:

    I agree w. Movieman and Yancy. What gives Affleck a better shot to get director in a split between the two films is that Hooper just won. Since LINCOLN is so well loved, more than MUNICH was, I think this is Kushner’s shot, though, if I’m right, this would be the first time in a looooong time that a film wins best picture without winning either director or a screenplay trophy. Still, I think it could happen. Why not? Trends are meant to be broken occasionally.

  22. Pat says:

    Hooper, Bigelow, and Lee have all won BD recently. And Spielberg has two awards already (despite having a long history of being an Academy non-fave). They might be looking for a reason to not reward Spielberg.

    Alan V. – Battle of Algiers is a great film, but the characters in it aren’t terribly dimensional. They’re just docudrama pawns, like re-enactors on a History Channel documentary.

  23. movieman says:

    I personally don’t find the idea of Spielberg winning a third BD so impossible (or, really, unlikely).
    John Ford won four of them.
    Capra and William frigging Wyler won three.
    I don’t, however, see Hooper (or Bigelow or Lee) winning a second BD Oscar anytime soon.

  24. Jerry says:

    Glad to see Argo with its laughably bad climax drop to second though I think Silver Linings is better than Lincoln. Spielberg’s sappiness mared Lincoln somewhat though I expected worse given that really lame early scene with the soldiers. Wish a documentary could win best picture since Searching For Sugar Man is better than all of the top three.

  25. Alan Vezina says:

    Pat,

    Your are right about there are no characters in Battle of Algiers. But the technique is much more superior than a docudrama from History Channel. But do you have any characters in Argo? I would be stunned if Affleck is nominated for best director! I have the impression that we, Americans,are so immersed in our culture that we are not able to judge what it is the best from countries.

  26. Daniella Isaacs says:

    There aren’t any “characters” in BATTLESHIP POTEMPKIN, MAN WITH A MOVIE CAMERA, BERLIN: SYMPHONY OF A CITY, etc., either. I know, I know, Communism is dead, the Western ideology of individualism has triumphed, but do we really have such short memories about great films from the past and an ability to understand why and how they’re great? How about 2001: A SPACE ODYSSEY? No three-dimensional characters there, really, either. (I know, I know, we’re talking about the Academy and award chances, but I just want to throw this out there.)

  27. Daniella Isaacs says:

    By the way, one of the first reviews of ZERO DARK THIRTY (Corless, TIME) compares it to ARGO but says it blows the Affleck film “out of the water.” ZDT may well be too dark to ultimately win Oscars, but the example it offers against ARGO may hurt the latter in the final voting.

  28. Stephen says:

    Vaguely confused by the comparisons between Argo and Battle of Algiers — they are completely different movies. Argo very deliberately takes a real story and gives us the Hollywood take on it (it becomes a fun thriller). But it does that with a lot of attention of detail and some wonderful direction. Arguing that it’s not complex enough seems to miss the point, since it’s telling a very small story and not trying to provide a wider perspective.

    Also: “This isn’t as good as Battle of Algiers” is a weird criticism since Battle of Algiers is an all-time great film. Are any of the movies likely to be nominated this year that good? Don’t think we can hold it against anyone that they didn’t make a film of that quality.

  29. Daniella Isaacs says:

    The only film I’ve seen this year that might, in 40 years, be thought of as a classic is BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD, but I’ll have to wait 40 years to be sure. ARGO, at best, is maybe at the level of THE STING, which is, of course, enough to get it a statue.

  30. Proman says:

    To VCQ: I guess the problem may be in that you don’t understand or appreciate what the film is about?

    Lincoln is fantastic.

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