MCN Columnists
Leonard Klady

By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

The Weekend Report

The New ParaNormal

The debut of Paranormal Activity 4 led weekend movie sales with an estimated $29.9 million. The session’s other national deb, a re-boot of James Patterson’s popular detective Alex Cross, struggled to $11.7 million to rank fifth overall.

Considerably more buoyant were newcomers in the niches including a pair of Indian imports. Telugu Cameraman Ganga Tho Rambabu grossed a solid $503,000 at 79 locations while Hindi Student of the Year opened to $342,000 at 106 venues. Even more dynamic was This Guy’s in Love with U Mare from the Philippines with $182,000 at a mere 15 screens.

Exclusive newcomers were mostly dull apart from the $120,000 generated from the controversial Sessions at four theaters and a $43,100 tally for the non-fiction profile Hating Breibart on the muckraking journalist that also opened with a quartet of engagements.

Overall box office perked up slightly despite opening disappointments to almost $135 million and a 2% uptick from last weekend. It was 9% better than 2011 when Paranormal Activity 3 bowed to $52.6 million.

The eerie Paranormal franchise was tracking well ahead of the pack with predictions that ranged from $35-40 million. Nonetheless, relatively low production cost bodes well for several more installments a la such past seasonal staples as Halloween and Nightmare on Elm Street. Opening frame demos tracked as audience roughly split between the sexes and 60% aged 25-years and younger. It also launched in 33 international territories with a studio estimate of $26.5 million.

Tyler Perry and Lionsgate took another crack at emulating Alex Cross’s print popularity but despite best efforts it too disappointed commercially. It skewed even more heavily African American than the earlier effort with Morgan Freeman with exits of 74%. The audience was 60% female and 78% aged 25-years and older. No word yet whether the homicide detective will team up with Madea for his next case.

Despite soft incoming product, holdovers performed with a lot of resilience. Argo slipped just 14% and barring floods and fires appears headed for considerable Oscar attention. Hotel Transylvania also continued strong and Here Comes the Boom maintained after a very slow start.

 

Weekend (estimates) October 19 – 21, 2012
Title Distributor Gross (avg) % chng Thtrs Cume
Paranormal Activity 4 Par 29.9 (8,750) NEW 3412 29.9
Argo WB 16.7 (5,140) -14% 3247 43.2
Hotel Transylvania Sony 13.4 (3,960) -22% 3384 118.9
Taken 2 Fox 13.3 (3,820) -39% 3489 105.9
Alex Cross Lionsgate 11.7 (4,620) NEW 2539 11.7
Sinister Lionsgate 8.9 (3,510) -51% 2542 31.8
Here Comes the Boom Sony 8.6 (2,850) -27% 3014 23.3
Pitch Perfect Uni 7.0 (2,630) -25% 2660 45.8
Frankenweenie BV 4.4 (1,870) -37% 2362 28.3
Looper Sony/Alliance 4.2 (1,900) -32% 2223 57.9
Seven Psychopaths CBS 3.2 (2,180) -23% 1480 9.1
The Perks of Being a Wallflower Lionsgate 2.1 (2,870) 0% 745 9.1
End of Watch Open Road/Alliance .81 (1,090) -52% 744 37.9
Trouble with the Curve WB .76 (820) -51% 925 34.1
Atlas Shrugged, Part 2 Atlas .59 (620) -64% 945 2.8
The Master Weinstein Co. .54 (1,310) -34% 412 14.8
Cameraman Ganga Tho Rambabu Universal Media .50 (6,230) NEW 79 0.7
House at the End of the Street Relativity .49 (660) -62% 746 30.8
Brave BV .39 (1,420) 144% 277 235
Student of the Year Eros .34 (3,230) NEW 106 0.34
The Dark Knight Rises WB .33 (960) -35% 345 446.7
Arbitrage Roadside Attractions .31 (1,860) -9% 168 7.1
Searching for Sugar Man Sony Classics .21 (1,540) 11% 137 2
Ice Age: Continental Shift Fox .19 (880) -16% 218 160.1
This Guy’s in Love with U Mare ABS .18 (12,130) NEW 15 0.18
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $127.10
% Change (Last Year) 9%
% Change (Last Week) 2%
Also debuting/expanding
Thieves Well Go .13 (8,190) -4% 16 0.34
The Sessions Searchlight .12 (29,900) 4 0.12
The Paperboy Millennium .11 (1,550) 19% 74 0.4
Samsara Oscilloscope .11 (1,620) 8% 70 2
Tai Chi 0 Variance 72,500 (2,340) 31 0.07
Middle of Nowhere AFFRM 53,200 (2,530) -26% 21 0.14
Smashed Sony Classics 46,200 (2,310) 66% 20 0.08
Haiting Breitbart Rocky Mtn 43,100 (10,780) 4 0.04
The Flat IFC 22,800 (7,600) 3 0.02
Brooklyn Castle PDA 18,900 (9,450) 2 0.02
The First Time IDP 17,400 (920) 19 0.02
Le Magasin des suicides Seville 7,300 (2,430) 3 0.01
Nobody Walks Magnolia 7,100 (3,550) 2 0.01
A Measure of Faith FreeStyle 6,700 (730) 9 0.01
Bad 25 ABC 6,500 (6,500) 1 0.01
Delhi Safari Applied Art 5,600 (280) 20 0.01
Deep Dark Canyon Colorfast 5,500 (2,750) 2 0.01
Vous n’avez encore rien vu Metropole 4,700 (1,570) 3 0.01
Yogawoman Shadow 2,900 (2,900) 1 0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 – Oct. 18, 2012)
Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Sony (23) 1407.9 16.50%
Warner Bros. (24) 1307.9 15.30%
Buena Vista (14) 1205.7 14.10%
Universal (14) 1171.1 13.70%
Lionsgate (17) 859.9 10.10%
20th Century Fox (16) 850.7 10.00%
Paramount (16) 598.9 7.00%
Relativity (6) 201.1 2.40%
Weinstein Co. (16) 143.1 1.70%
Focus (7) 130.6 1.50%
Open Road (5) 119.6 1.40%
Fox Searchlight (8) 106.3 1.30%
CBS (4) 81.1 0.90%
Summit (4) 47.1 0.60%
Sony Classics (18) 45.1 0.50%
Other * (293) 252.9 3.00%
8529 100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Global Grossers (Jan. 1 – Oct. 18, 2012)
Title Distributor Box Office
The Avengers BV 1,515,637,910
The Dark Knight Rises WB 1,100,903,685
Ice Age: Continental Drift Fox 865,328,607
The Amazing Spider-Man Sony 753,678,156
The Hunger Games Lions Gate 694,731,457
Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted Par 688,805,884
Men in Black III Sony 665,268,874
Brave BV 529,726,243
Ted Uni 473,639,611
Prometheus Fox 402,654,521
Snow White and the Huntsman Uni 378,116,850
Titanic 3D (reissue) Fox/Par 349,995,427
Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax Uni 345,874,466
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol * Par 344,943,081
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island WB 329,080,786
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows * WB 316,944,418
The Expendables 2 Lions Gate/NuImage 307,796,553
Wrath of the Titans WB 305,139,409
Battleship Uni 304,373,756
John Carter BV 281,891,994
Intouchables * Gaumont/Alliance 258,360,419
Dark Shadows WB 244,570,149
Taken 2 Fox/Europa 243,056,874
The Bourne Legacy Uni 237,676,262
American Reunion Uni 235,067,142
* does not include 2011 box office

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Guardians of the Galaxy 3.8 3462 -21% 262.1
As Above/So Below 3.2 2640 NEW 3.2
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2.7 3543 -41% 153.3
If I Stay 2.6 3003 -62% 23.1
The November Man 2.2 2776 NEW 3.9
Let's Be Cops 2 3010 -39% 51.1
When the Game Stands Tall 1.4 2673 -52% 12.1
The Giver 1.3 2805 -37% 27.6
The Hundred-Foot Journey 1.1 1918 -30% 35.9
The Expendables 3 0.85 2564 -55% 30.5
Also Debuting
Cantinflas 0.81 382
Ghostbusters - 30th Anniversary 0.49 784
Rabhasa 0.1 86
Double Di Trouble 38,300 33
Life of Crime 30,600 35
Kundo: Age of Rampant 28,900 26
Swearnet 28,300 88
Raja Natwarlal 22,100 74
Peruchazhi 14,100 13
The Congress 7,560 13
The Last of Robin Hood 7,100 2
Starred Up 2,900 2
Temporary Family 2,800 5
Through a Lens Darkly 2,750 1
Road to Ninja: Naruto the Movie 2,700 7
Last Weekend 1,350 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office