Gurus o’ Gold: After Toronto (Part 1)

Things have changed a bit since The Gurus last opined before the Toronto International Film Festival.

First, some internal business. Guru Dave Karger has moved on from Entertainment Weekly to get into a video-focused deal at Fandango. And we welcome back veteran Guru, Glenn Whipp, who is now at the Los Angeles Times.

Back to handicapping…

The Gurus picked 15 unranked choices each for Best Picture, with seven titles getting a vote from every one of the participating Gurus. Three of those movies, still unseen, remain in the Top Six. Three—Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Moonrise Kingdom—remain in the Top Ten. And Anna Karenina falls to #11.

The big movers are Silver Linings Playbook and Life of Pi.

Dropping off the chart with no one casting a vote for them—with only 10 picks per Guru in this round—are Cloud Atlas, The Company You Keep, Hope Springs, The Hunt, Hyde Park On The Hudson, Inside Llewyn Davis, Killing Them Softly, Not Fade Away, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Rust & Bone, Stories We Tell, To The Wonder, Trouble With The Curve, On The Road, and Arbitrage.

This morning, a look at the new Best Picture chart and Longshot picks in the acting categories, led by Jack Black, Richard Gere, and Emmanuelle Riva.

In Part 2, posting later today, The Gurus take on the four acting races. And for your edification, here is last season’s Post-TIFF Gurus chart.

(NOTE: Stories We Tell will not be released in 2012.)




Rank Last Chart Best Picture (Unranked) BreznicanEllwoodHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWhippWloszczyna Votes Total
1 t1 Argo
Warner Bros
3 1 2 2 3 4 2 1 1 3 4 1 12 105
2 Silver Linings Playbook
The Weinstein Company
4 2 1 4 1 3 1 6 5 2 3 3 12 97
3 t1 Les Miserables
Universal
5 4 4 6 2 8 7 2 2 4 8 2 12 78
4 Life of Pi
20th Century Fox
1 3 3 7 6 6 4 4 4 1 5 11 77
5 t1 Lincoln
DreamWorks/Disney
2 5 5 9 4 1 10 3 3 6 2 6 12 76
6 t1 Zero Dark Thirty
Sony Pictures
7 6 5 2 3 5 5 10 9 9 47
7 The Master
The Weinstein Company
6 7 3 9 8 8 7 1 4 9 46
8 t1 Beasts of the Southern Wild
Fox Searchlight
6 9 5 10 5 7 9 6 8 9 34
9 Amour
Sony Classics
1 7 8 9 5 5 25
10 t1 Moonrise Kingdom
Focus Features
10 8 8 9 7 7 6 17
t1 Anna Karenina
8 5 8 10 4 13
Django Unchained
8 6 10 3 9
The Sessions
9 7 9 3 8
Hitchcock
6 9 2 7
Promised Land
9 10 2 5
The Impossible
7 10 2 5
Flight
9 10 2 3
One Vote Wonders
The Hobbit
7 1 4
The Dark Knight Rises
8 1 3
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
10 1 1
The Intouchables
10 1 1
Holy Motors
10 1 1


Rank Last Chart Acting Longshots BreznicanEllwoodHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWhippWloszczyna Votes Total
Jack Black
Bernie
5 5 1 1 4 12
Richard Gere
Arbitrage
1 1 2 10
Bruce Willis
2 2 2 8
Judi Dench
Skyfall
2 3 2 7
Emmanuelle Riva
Amour
1 4 2 7
Suraj Sharma
Life of Pi
3 2 2 7
Joseph Gordon-Levitt
5 1 2 6
Naomi Watts
The Impossinble
5 1 2 6
Matthew McConaughey
Magic Mike
5 2 2 5
Jim Broadbent
Cloud Atlas
3 4 2 5
Tom Hanks
Cloud Atlas
5 4 2 3
One Vote Wonders
Salma Hayak
Savages
1 1 5
Tom Holland
The Impossible
1 1 5
Irrfan Khan
Life of Pi
1 1 5
Christopher Nolan
The Dark Knight Rises
1 1 5
Russell Crowe
Les MIserables
1 1 5
Mary Elizabeth Winstead
Smashed
2 1 4
Pat Healy
Compliance
2 1 4
John Hawkes
The Sessions
2 1 4
Anthony Hopkins
Hitchcock
2 1 4
Nate Parker
Arbitrage
2 1 4
Quvenzhane Wallis
Beasts of the Southern Wild
2 1 4
Alicia Vikander
Anna Karenina
2 1 4
Terrance Stamp
Song For Marion
3 1 3
Samantha Barks
Les Miserables
3 1 3
Jean-Louis Trintignant
Amour
3 1 3
Frank Langella
Robot & Frank
3 1 3
Jake Gyllenhaal
End of Watch
3 1 3
Jamie Foxx
Django Unchained
3 1 3
Kerry Washington
Django Unchained
3 1 3
Robert DeNiro
Silver Linings Playbook
3 1 3
Logsn Lerman
The Perks of Being A Wallflower
4 1 2
Maggie Smith
Quartet
4 1 2
Jacki Weaver
Silver Linings Playbook
4 1 2
Ezra Miller
The Perks of Being A Wallflower
4 1 2
Keira Knightley
Anna Karenina
4 1 2
Leslie Mann
This Is 40
4 1 2
Kristen Stewart
On The Road
5 1 1
Judi Dench
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
5 1 1
Helena Bonham Carter
Great Expectations
5 1 1

5 Responses to “Gurus o’ Gold: After Toronto (Part 1)”

  1. movielocke says:

    those longshots are mostly funny, a lot of frontrunners there. Especially Riva, who is probably in third position right now behind Wallis and Lawrence.

    Is the Hobbit Hugo 2.0? A film people have decided not to anticipate, but actually gathers tons of noms throughout the season after it drops?

    Remember, The Hobbit opens the Friday before balloting begins, it isn’t opening against any other films, nothing else in limited, nothing else wide, it owns that weekend, a weekend which is all the more crucial with the early balloting. It’ll be riding a wave of popularity and goodwill going into the opening of balloting and I expect it will overperform at the oscars because of that.

  2. Felipe says:

    Many of those acting longshots are very strange…Can we confide in the good taste of Gurus? And don’t forget of Marion Cotillard. Please!

  3. Al says:

    Can you at least spell Knigthley’s last name correctly, it’s pretty ridiculous!

  4. movielocke says:

    Hey DP,

    You’ve said in the past that Oscar won’t even consider Neil Patrick Harris to host the show because he’s a TV guy and they only hire film people.

    Well McFarlane has fewer film credentials than Harris and is completely a TV guy.

    Does the boneheaded decision of McFarlane mean NPH has a chance in the future? This pick seems like they’re going to give it the old college try one more time. I mean the philosphy of, ‘let’s try and repeat the Hathaway/Franco experiment; let’s chase the elusive teen boys and tweenty boys demographics, because this time it’ll work!’

  5. Bill says:

    Why is Naomi Watts constantly considered a longshot? The Impossible has been getting nothing but raves.

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