MCN Columnists
Leonard Klady

By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

The Weekend Report

Trouble With the Estimate

The fight for bragging rights dominated weekend estimates with three incoming movies all claiming top spot on the charts. From this perch the lineup shakes out with the cop on the beat End of Watch ahead with $12.9 million, Clint in baseball Trouble with the Curve right behind with $12.7 million and the chiller The House at the End of the Street trailing with $12.4 million.

For starters, none of the trio bowed to inspired numbers. And secondly situations like this (close races) perpetuate the terrible advance of estimates becoming actuals and actuals becoming afterthoughts.

The session also featured the national bow of Dredd with a moribund $6.2 million and a dull start for the independent drama Unconditional of $540,000 at 350 venues. Heroine, the lastest from Bollywood, posted OK results of $411,000 from 111 playdates while the considerably smaller Pinoy circuit boasted an impressive $362,000 for The Mistress from a mere 19 screens. Also off to a good start was the 14-screen launch of Armenian comedy My Uncle Rafael of $101,000 and Korean import Masquerade with a $61,100 gross at 15 sites.

A veritable tsunami of exclusive bows did little to raise the recently sinking attendance level. Best of the bunch was the nonfiction Diana Vreeland: The Eyes Have to Travel with three screens tallying $58,400.

Overall weekend box office slightly exceeded $90 million for a small 6% boost from last weekend. It was again 22% behind 2011 when the second weekend of The Lion King meowed to $21.9 million and newcomers Moneyball and Dolphin Tale bowed respectively with $19.5 million and $19.2 million. Suffice it to say Skyfall and a new Twilight cannot arrive too soon for film exhibition.

Pundits had pegged Trouble with the Curve as a slight favorite against End of Watch but it appears a younger crowd provided the latter with a dot more energy. The Eastwood yarn attracted a 55% female crowd with 83% of opening weekenders age 25 and older. Women also fueled the audience of The House at the End of the Street (bless you, Jennifer Lawrence) comprising 61% of the crowd with 70% of viewers aged 25 and younger.

And for the record Dredd tilted 75% male and 69% of fanboys aged 25 and older.

The deluge of new releases across the spectrum of movie going definitely hasn’t translated into more is more. That’s certainly renewed the debate of too many pictures in the marketplace as well as the more salient discussion of scheduling more potent films in September. Unless there’s an unexpected breakout title in the next few weeks a considerable portion of the audience will be munching on leftovers until Thanksgiving … and one risks the peril of losing another sliver of regular viewers.

Weekend (estimates) September 21 – 23, 2012
Title Distributor Gross (avg) % chng Thtrs Cume
End of Watch Open Road 12.9 (4,720) NEW 2730 12.9
Trouble with the Curve WB 12.7 (3,960) NEW 3212 12.7
House at the End of the Street Relativity 12.4 (4,030) NEW 3083 12.4
Finding Nemo 3D BV 9.5 (3,280) -43% 2904 30
Resident Evil: Retribution Sony/Alliance 6.6 (2,200) -69% 3016 33.4
Dredd Lions Gate 6.2 (2,460) NEW 2506 6.2
The Master Weinstein Co. 4.7 (5,990) 541% 788 5.8
The Possession Lions Gate 2.6 (1,020) -54% 2598 45.3
ParaNorman Focus 2.3 (1,430) -25% 1617 52.6
Lawless Weinstein Co. 2.3 (880) -47% 2614 34.5
The Bourne Legacy Uni 1.6 (1,140) -43% 1430 110.4
The Odd Life of Timothy Green BV 1.5 (860) -42% 1752 48.6
The Expendables Lions Gate 1.4 (780) -55% 1820 83
The Dark Knight Rises WB 1.3 (1,340) -42% 948 443.1
The Campaign WB 1.2 (980) -49% 1250 85
Arbitrage Roadside Attractions 1.2 (4,800) -42% 244 3.8
2016 Obama’s America Rocky Mountain .91 (750) -54% 1216 32
Hope Springs Sony .85 (740) -53% 1147 62.1
The Words CBS .76 (610) -73% 1247 11
Barfi! UTV .67 (5,320) -37% 126 2
The Last Ounce of Courage Rocky Mountain .55 (520) -65% 1064 2.8
Unconditional Harbinger .54 (1,540) NEW 350 0.54
Ice Age: Continental Drift Fox .52 (1,240) -11% 420 158.5
The Avengers BV .45 (1,550) -24% 290 622.9
Heroine UTV .41 (3,720 NEW 111 0.41
The Mistress ABS .36 (19,050) NEW 19 0.38
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $85.20
% Change (Last Year) -22%
% Change (Last Week) 6%
Also debuting/expanding
Sleepwalk with Me IFC .27 (2,020) -21% 135 1.7
Samsara Oscilloscope .17 (2,910) -29% 59 1.1
For a Good Time, Call … Focus .15 (1,400) -46% 105 1.1
Beasts of the Southern Wild Searchlight/eOne .12 (920) -50% 132 10.9
My Uncle Rafael Rocky Mtn .10 (7,180) 14 0.1
10 Years Anchor Bay 77,500 (1,800) 237% 43 0.11
Searching for Sugar Man Sony Classics .10 (2,560) -4% 38 1.2
The Perks of Being a Wallflower Lions Gate .23 (58,000) 4 0.23
Masquerade CJ Entertain. 61,100 (4,080) 15 0.06
Diana Vreeland: The Eyes Have to Travel IDP 58,400 (19,470) 3 0.06
Occupy Unmasked Magnolia 41,300 (10,320) 4 0.04
Bless Me Ultima Arenas 38,200 (9,550) 4 0.04
Detropia Loki 33,500 (3,040) -20% 11 0.13
How to Survive a Plague IFC 25,100 (6,280) 4 0.03
Backwards Dada 21,200 (5,300) 4 0.02
Roller Town D Film 18,900 (1,110) 17 0.02
Art of Submission Fairway 9,800 (9,800) 1 0.01
You May Not Kiss the Bride FreeStyle 8,600 (780) 11 0.01
Radio Unnameable Kino 4,800 (4,800) 1 0.01
Knuckleball! FilmBuff 4,750 (1,190) 4 0.01
Brooklyn Brothers Beat the Best Oscilloscope 4,600 (4,600) 1 0.01
Husbands in Goa UTV 4,400 (730) 6 0.01
Almost Perfect 11 Arts 4,300 (4,300) 1 0.01
Doctored Working Pics 4,100 (4,100) 1 0.01
Fred Won’t Move Out Virgil 3,900 (3,900) 1 0.01
17 Girls Strand 3.800 (760) 5 0.01
Hellbound? Area 23a 3,500 (875) 4 0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 – September 20, 2012)
Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Warner Bros. (22) 1239 15.70%
Sony (20) 1224.1 15.50%
Buena Vista (13) 1156.6 14.70%
Universal (13) 1127.5 14.30%
Lions Gate (14) 807.2 10.20%
20th Century Fox (14) 749.9 9.50%
Paramount (15) 593.7 7.50%
Relativity (5) 170.8 2.20%
Focus (7) 125.5 1.60%
Weinstein Co. (12) 124.2 1.60%
Fox Searchlight (8) 105.7 1.30%
Open Road (4) 84.2 1.10%
CBS (3) 73.9 0.90%
Summit (4) 47.1 0.60%
Sony Classics (18) 44 0.60%
Other * (260) 213.6 2.70%
7887 100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Global Grossers * (Jan. 1 – Sept. 20, 2012
Title Distributor Gross
The Avengers BV 1,512,577,976
The Dark Knight Rises WB 1,085,905,195
Ice Age: Continental Drift Fox 827,491,912
The Amazing Spider-Man Sony 749,549,536
The Hunger Games Lions Gate 689,508,019
Men in Black III Sony 634,847,892
Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted Par 623,353,970
Brave BV 502,422,981
Ted Uni 411,419,637
Prometheus Fox 393,212,688
Snow White and the Huntsman Uni 376,885,734
Titanic 3D (reissue) Fox 345,264,033
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol * Par 344,943,081
Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax Uni 339,997,280
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island WB 329,080,786
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows * WB 316,944,418
Wrath of the Titans WB 305,139,409
Battleship Uni 304,373,756
John Carter BV 281,891,994
The Expendables 2 Lions Gate/NuImage 280,985,039
Dark Shadows WB 244,570,149
Intouchables Gaumont/Alliance 239,129,422
American Reunion Uni 235,060,646
Safe House Uni 203,848,715
The Bourne Legacy Uni 203,618,108
* does not include 2011 box office

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Fury 8.8 3173 NEW 8.8
Gone Girl 5.6 3249 -32% 94.8
The Book of Life 4.9 3071 NEW 4.9
The Best of Me 4.1 2936 NEW 4.1
Alexaander and the Terrible, Horrible … Day 3.2 3088 -39% 28
Dracula Untold 2.9 2900 -67% 33.8
Annabelle 2.5 2878 -52% 68.7
The Judge 2.4 3003 -45% 21.3
The Equalizer 1.6 2262 -44% 85.3
The Maze Runner 1.3 2155 -39% 87.7
Also Debuting
Birdman 0.13 4
Dear White People 0.12 11
Oka Laila Kosam 60,200 61
The Golden Era 19,000 15
The Tale of Princess Kaguya 13,600 3
Rudderless 9,200 18
Listen Up Philip 7,350 2
Guardian Angel 5,950 2
Hiroshima, Mon Amour (reissue) 5,250 5
Watchers of the Sky 3,100 4
Life Inside Out 3,050 2
Lakay 2,100 6
Diplomacy 2,100 1
The Hacker Wars 2,000 1
My Love, My Bride 1,800 1
Felony 1,300 9
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4