Night Moves
MCN Columnists
Leonard Klady

By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

The Weekend Report

Trouble With the Estimate

The fight for bragging rights dominated weekend estimates with three incoming movies all claiming top spot on the charts. From this perch the lineup shakes out with the cop on the beat End of Watch ahead with $12.9 million, Clint in baseball Trouble with the Curve right behind with $12.7 million and the chiller The House at the End of the Street trailing with $12.4 million.

For starters, none of the trio bowed to inspired numbers. And secondly situations like this (close races) perpetuate the terrible advance of estimates becoming actuals and actuals becoming afterthoughts.

The session also featured the national bow of Dredd with a moribund $6.2 million and a dull start for the independent drama Unconditional of $540,000 at 350 venues. Heroine, the lastest from Bollywood, posted OK results of $411,000 from 111 playdates while the considerably smaller Pinoy circuit boasted an impressive $362,000 for The Mistress from a mere 19 screens. Also off to a good start was the 14-screen launch of Armenian comedy My Uncle Rafael of $101,000 and Korean import Masquerade with a $61,100 gross at 15 sites.

A veritable tsunami of exclusive bows did little to raise the recently sinking attendance level. Best of the bunch was the nonfiction Diana Vreeland: The Eyes Have to Travel with three screens tallying $58,400.

Overall weekend box office slightly exceeded $90 million for a small 6% boost from last weekend. It was again 22% behind 2011 when the second weekend of The Lion King meowed to $21.9 million and newcomers Moneyball and Dolphin Tale bowed respectively with $19.5 million and $19.2 million. Suffice it to say Skyfall and a new Twilight cannot arrive too soon for film exhibition.

Pundits had pegged Trouble with the Curve as a slight favorite against End of Watch but it appears a younger crowd provided the latter with a dot more energy. The Eastwood yarn attracted a 55% female crowd with 83% of opening weekenders age 25 and older. Women also fueled the audience of The House at the End of the Street (bless you, Jennifer Lawrence) comprising 61% of the crowd with 70% of viewers aged 25 and younger.

And for the record Dredd tilted 75% male and 69% of fanboys aged 25 and older.

The deluge of new releases across the spectrum of movie going definitely hasn’t translated into more is more. That’s certainly renewed the debate of too many pictures in the marketplace as well as the more salient discussion of scheduling more potent films in September. Unless there’s an unexpected breakout title in the next few weeks a considerable portion of the audience will be munching on leftovers until Thanksgiving … and one risks the peril of losing another sliver of regular viewers.

Weekend (estimates) September 21 – 23, 2012
Title Distributor Gross (avg) % chng Thtrs Cume
End of Watch Open Road 12.9 (4,720) NEW 2730 12.9
Trouble with the Curve WB 12.7 (3,960) NEW 3212 12.7
House at the End of the Street Relativity 12.4 (4,030) NEW 3083 12.4
Finding Nemo 3D BV 9.5 (3,280) -43% 2904 30
Resident Evil: Retribution Sony/Alliance 6.6 (2,200) -69% 3016 33.4
Dredd Lions Gate 6.2 (2,460) NEW 2506 6.2
The Master Weinstein Co. 4.7 (5,990) 541% 788 5.8
The Possession Lions Gate 2.6 (1,020) -54% 2598 45.3
ParaNorman Focus 2.3 (1,430) -25% 1617 52.6
Lawless Weinstein Co. 2.3 (880) -47% 2614 34.5
The Bourne Legacy Uni 1.6 (1,140) -43% 1430 110.4
The Odd Life of Timothy Green BV 1.5 (860) -42% 1752 48.6
The Expendables Lions Gate 1.4 (780) -55% 1820 83
The Dark Knight Rises WB 1.3 (1,340) -42% 948 443.1
The Campaign WB 1.2 (980) -49% 1250 85
Arbitrage Roadside Attractions 1.2 (4,800) -42% 244 3.8
2016 Obama’s America Rocky Mountain .91 (750) -54% 1216 32
Hope Springs Sony .85 (740) -53% 1147 62.1
The Words CBS .76 (610) -73% 1247 11
Barfi! UTV .67 (5,320) -37% 126 2
The Last Ounce of Courage Rocky Mountain .55 (520) -65% 1064 2.8
Unconditional Harbinger .54 (1,540) NEW 350 0.54
Ice Age: Continental Drift Fox .52 (1,240) -11% 420 158.5
The Avengers BV .45 (1,550) -24% 290 622.9
Heroine UTV .41 (3,720 NEW 111 0.41
The Mistress ABS .36 (19,050) NEW 19 0.38
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $85.20
% Change (Last Year) -22%
% Change (Last Week) 6%
Also debuting/expanding
Sleepwalk with Me IFC .27 (2,020) -21% 135 1.7
Samsara Oscilloscope .17 (2,910) -29% 59 1.1
For a Good Time, Call … Focus .15 (1,400) -46% 105 1.1
Beasts of the Southern Wild Searchlight/eOne .12 (920) -50% 132 10.9
My Uncle Rafael Rocky Mtn .10 (7,180) 14 0.1
10 Years Anchor Bay 77,500 (1,800) 237% 43 0.11
Searching for Sugar Man Sony Classics .10 (2,560) -4% 38 1.2
The Perks of Being a Wallflower Lions Gate .23 (58,000) 4 0.23
Masquerade CJ Entertain. 61,100 (4,080) 15 0.06
Diana Vreeland: The Eyes Have to Travel IDP 58,400 (19,470) 3 0.06
Occupy Unmasked Magnolia 41,300 (10,320) 4 0.04
Bless Me Ultima Arenas 38,200 (9,550) 4 0.04
Detropia Loki 33,500 (3,040) -20% 11 0.13
How to Survive a Plague IFC 25,100 (6,280) 4 0.03
Backwards Dada 21,200 (5,300) 4 0.02
Roller Town D Film 18,900 (1,110) 17 0.02
Art of Submission Fairway 9,800 (9,800) 1 0.01
You May Not Kiss the Bride FreeStyle 8,600 (780) 11 0.01
Radio Unnameable Kino 4,800 (4,800) 1 0.01
Knuckleball! FilmBuff 4,750 (1,190) 4 0.01
Brooklyn Brothers Beat the Best Oscilloscope 4,600 (4,600) 1 0.01
Husbands in Goa UTV 4,400 (730) 6 0.01
Almost Perfect 11 Arts 4,300 (4,300) 1 0.01
Doctored Working Pics 4,100 (4,100) 1 0.01
Fred Won’t Move Out Virgil 3,900 (3,900) 1 0.01
17 Girls Strand 3.800 (760) 5 0.01
Hellbound? Area 23a 3,500 (875) 4 0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 – September 20, 2012)
Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Warner Bros. (22) 1239 15.70%
Sony (20) 1224.1 15.50%
Buena Vista (13) 1156.6 14.70%
Universal (13) 1127.5 14.30%
Lions Gate (14) 807.2 10.20%
20th Century Fox (14) 749.9 9.50%
Paramount (15) 593.7 7.50%
Relativity (5) 170.8 2.20%
Focus (7) 125.5 1.60%
Weinstein Co. (12) 124.2 1.60%
Fox Searchlight (8) 105.7 1.30%
Open Road (4) 84.2 1.10%
CBS (3) 73.9 0.90%
Summit (4) 47.1 0.60%
Sony Classics (18) 44 0.60%
Other * (260) 213.6 2.70%
7887 100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Global Grossers * (Jan. 1 – Sept. 20, 2012
Title Distributor Gross
The Avengers BV 1,512,577,976
The Dark Knight Rises WB 1,085,905,195
Ice Age: Continental Drift Fox 827,491,912
The Amazing Spider-Man Sony 749,549,536
The Hunger Games Lions Gate 689,508,019
Men in Black III Sony 634,847,892
Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted Par 623,353,970
Brave BV 502,422,981
Ted Uni 411,419,637
Prometheus Fox 393,212,688
Snow White and the Huntsman Uni 376,885,734
Titanic 3D (reissue) Fox 345,264,033
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol * Par 344,943,081
Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax Uni 339,997,280
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island WB 329,080,786
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows * WB 316,944,418
Wrath of the Titans WB 305,139,409
Battleship Uni 304,373,756
John Carter BV 281,891,994
The Expendables 2 Lions Gate/NuImage 280,985,039
Dark Shadows WB 244,570,149
Intouchables Gaumont/Alliance 239,129,422
American Reunion Uni 235,060,646
Safe House Uni 203,848,715
The Bourne Legacy Uni 203,618,108
* does not include 2011 box office

Leave a Reply

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Guardians of the Galaxy 3.8 3462 -21% 262.1
As Above/So Below 3.2 2640 NEW 3.2
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2.7 3543 -41% 153.3
If I Stay 2.6 3003 -62% 23.1
The November Man 2.2 2776 NEW 3.9
Let's Be Cops 2 3010 -39% 51.1
When the Game Stands Tall 1.4 2673 -52% 12.1
The Giver 1.3 2805 -37% 27.6
The Hundred-Foot Journey 1.1 1918 -30% 35.9
The Expendables 3 0.85 2564 -55% 30.5
Also Debuting
Cantinflas 0.81 382
Ghostbusters - 30th Anniversary 0.49 784
Rabhasa 0.1 86
Double Di Trouble 38,300 33
Life of Crime 30,600 35
Kundo: Age of Rampant 28,900 26
Swearnet 28,300 88
Raja Natwarlal 22,100 74
Peruchazhi 14,100 13
The Congress 7,560 13
The Last of Robin Hood 7,100 2
Starred Up 2,900 2
Temporary Family 2,800 5
Through a Lens Darkly 2,750 1
Road to Ninja: Naruto the Movie 2,700 7
Last Weekend 1,350 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office