By David Poland firstname.lastname@example.org
Weekend Estimates by Up-Weekend Klady
This is one of those weekends that reminds us how myopic box office coverage has become. Metrics like numerical placement (#1, #5, etc) are irrelevant, except for sheep to whom studios are marketing. And on a weekend like this, with three new titles, none of which were really expected to do better than they did, the significance for the industry is minimal, as the holdovers did better than, say, last year, while the newcomers do less. I’m not suggesting that close analysis of specific weekends year-by-year has great meaning. This is a business of individual efforts brought together by distributor or schedule or season. It is really easy and really wrong-headed to lose the trees for the forest.
The estimate on 2016: Obama’s America is not surprising after that Friday number, which was clearly front-loaded. It’s not 3x Friday, but still quite an impressive getting out of the choir. As I noted in a comment response yesterday, it still isn’t a million people who have seen this film, which with few exceptions means that the audience for this film went in decided to vote against Obama. The hope for the wing-nuts is that the film’s box office is covered in a way that entices non-tea partiers to see the film in the weeks to come. Good luck with that. The last “big hit” from this distributor, Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed, never dropped by less than 50% in its 7-week run in 2008. I would expect this propaganda film to do a little better than double Expelled… $16m – $19m.
The best per-screens in the indie world are, easily, Sleepwalk With Me, Mike Birbiglia & Ira Glass’ This American Life comes to life comedy and Samsara, the visual feast from the guys who made Baraka.
Moonrise Kingdom is chugging along, now $2.3m behind The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel for status of top Dependent release of 2012 so far. (Searchlight would want you to know that Marigold has done, to date, more than 6x Moonrise internationally.)
Ted is coming up on $215m and Saving Private Ryan for #7 R-rated film of all time.
The domestic Top 10 for the summer is: Avengers, TDKR, Spidey, Brave, Ted, Madagascar, MiB3, Snow White, Ice Age 4, Prometheus.
Worldwide, it’s Avengers, TDKR, Ice 4, Spidey, MiB3, Madagascar, Brave, Snow White, Ted, Prometheus.
The bottom of The 10, in both cases Prometheus, is $126m domestic/$330m worldwide.