MCN Columnists
Leonard Klady

By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

The Weekend Report, July 1, 2012

The pundits anticipated that audience hearts would once again be in the Highlands and Brave would be atop weekend box office.

They were wrong.

The incoming allure of childhood dreams gone awry and some animated pecs trumped the competition. Ted, the scatological take on the child-man, debuted at the top of the list with an estimated $53.8 million and the alternately hilarious and dark world of Magic Mike’s male strippers bowed second with $39.2 million. Two other films opened nationally that included Tyler Perry back in form with a $26.4 million launch for Medea’s Witness Protection slotting fourth while the family drama People Like Us wound up with scraps that amounted to $4.2 million.

New in the niches the Punjabi Jatt & Juliet scored an impressive $144,000 from 15 playdates. While Punjab films can’t compete with Bollywood that community largely centered in Canada has developed into rabid movie goers. Canada’s home grown Take This Waltz also displayed strength with a $138,000 opening at 31 venues (including two U.S. engagements) and French implort Cloclo (a bio of 1960s singing sensation laude Francois) failed to replicate La Vie en Rose with a $14,300 tally from eight Quebec exposures.

Among the exclusive bows there was considerably better response for France with Unforgivable grossing $27,600 from five screens. But the mouse that roared was Sundance prized Beasts of the Southern Wild with a potent $176,000 box office at an initial quartet.

Box office pumped up to more than 210 million and a 28% hike from seven days earlier. It was also an unexpected 3% improvement from 2011 in light of last year’s $97.8 million debut of Transformers: Dark of the Moon.

Tracking for Ted was always strong but nonetheless initial translations slotted it third in the lineup with about $30 million. That estimate ramped up to $40 million just prior to opening and put it competitive with Brave.

A studio spokesperson noted that current tracking has been wildly inaccurate and that’s no joke. Currently there are three major market research companies specializing in box office tracking and one would think they could do comparably well with political trackers capable of predicting elections minutes after polls close.

Ted’s box office set a new high for an R-rated comedy. The audience demos skewed 56% male with 52% of viewers aged 30 years and older.

Magic Mike saw its prospects rise following Thursday midnight sneaks that generated $2 million. Opening weekend drew a 73% crowd with 66% of buyers aged 25 years and older. Strong reviews and word-of-mouth bode well for hitting the other quadrants in the coming weeks.

Medea’s Witness Protection proved to be a stronger draw than other recent Tyler Perry efforts. While it drew on Perry’s traditional base with a 69% female skew and 69% of the crowd aged 25 years and older there was an upbeat note with 30% of buyers identified as non-African American _ a significant improvement in his slow crossover in the past decade.

Recent weeks haven’t been great for alternative adult fare and People Like Us is no exception. As with last week’s Seeking a Friend … its wide launch underwhelmed and in hindsight the picture might have been better served with a platform release as has been witnessed by Marigold Hotel, Moonrise Kingdom, Bernie and the current To Rome with Love.

Overseas a couple of films got a jump start on their domestic openings. Ice Age: Continental Drift was on a record breaking course with an estimated $78 million debut in 34 territories. And days ahead of its holiday launch The Amazing Spider-Man grossed $50 million in 13 nations primarily focusing on Asia.

 


Weekend (estimates) June 29 – July 1, 2012
Title Distributor Gross (average) % change * Theaters Cume
Ted Uni 53.8 (16,610) NEW 3239 53.8
Magic Mike WB 39.2 (13,390) NEW 2930 39.2
Brave BV 33.9 (8,150) -49% 4164 131.6
Madea’s Witness Protection Lions Gate 26.4 (12,230) NEW 2161 26.4
Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted Par 11.8 (3,190) -40% 3715 180
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter Fox 5.9 (1,910) -64% 3109 29
Prometheus Fox 4.9 (2,510) -51% 1951 118.2
Moonrise Kingdom Focus 4.8 (5,640) 42% 854 18.4
Snow White and the Huntsman Uni 4.4 (1,874) -46% 2337 145.6
The Avengers BV 4.2 (2,380) -42% 1757 606.3
People Like Us BV 4.2 (2,030) NEW 2055 4.2
Men in Black III Sony 2.8 (1,490) -51% 1902 169.6
Rock of Ages WB 2.7 (1,130) -64% 2405 34.9
That’s My Boy Sony 2.2 (920) -71% 2363 34.4
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel Fox Searchlight 1.0 (1,950) -36% 534 40.4
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World Focus 1.0 (640) -73% 1608 6.6
To Rome with Love Sony Classics .71 (24,550) 97% 29 1.3
Battleship Uni .42 (1,370) -19% 308 63.9
The Hunger Games Lions Gate .39 (1,400) -38% 278 403.8
Intouchables Alliance/Weinstein .35 (4,020) -15% 86 5.5
Dark Shadows WB .38 (1,040) 45% 365 76.3
Safety Not Guaranteed Film District .37 (2,270) -21% 164 1.7
Bernie Millennium .31 (1,860) -37% 166 7.2
Your Sister’s Sister IFC .23 (2,480) 16% 94 0.7
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $203.90
% Change (Last Year) 3%
% Change (Last Week) 28%
Also debuting/expanding
Beasts of the Southern Wild Searchlight .18 (44,100) 4 0.23
Jatt & Juliet Speed .14 (9.610) 15 0.14
Take This Waltz Mongrel/Magnolia .14 (4,440) 31 0.14
Hysteria Sony Classics 77,500 (1,060) -48% 73 1.6
Unforgivable Strand 27,600 (5,520) 5 0.03
Cloclo Seville 14,300 (1,790) 8 0.01
Neil Young’s Journey Sony Classics 12,400 (4,130) 3 0.01
Runway Cop CJ Entertainment 5,900 (5,900) 1 0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 – June 28, 2012)
Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Buena Vista (10) 919.9 17.50%
Sony (14) 755.7 14.40%
Universal (10) 736.1 14.00%
Warner Bros. (18) 579.9 11.00%
Lions Gate (9) 572.5 10.90%
Paramount (13) 517.1 9.80%
20th Century Fox (11) 482 9.20%
Relativity (5) 170.1 3.20%
Fox Searchlight (7) 86.1 1.60%
Weinstein Co. (8) 84.1 1.60%
Open Road (3) 72.2 1.40%
CBS (2) 63.6 1.20%
Summit (4) 47.1 0.90%
Focus (5) 41.1 0.80%
Other * (186) 138.5 2.60%
5266 100.00%
* none greater than 0.45%

Leave a Reply

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 7.9 3980 -69% 97.2
Guardians of the Galaxy 6.9 3697 -44% 204.4
The Expendables 3 5.8 3221 NEW 5.8
Let's Be Cops 5.6 3094 NEW 14
The Giver 4.7 3003 NEW 4.7
Into the Storm 2.3 3434 -65% 25.9
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.1 2043 -43% 18.6
Lucy 1.6 2520 -44% 103.8
Step Up: All In 0.75 2072 -74% 9.9
Hercules 0.6 1475 -67% 66.6
Also Debuting
Singham Returns 0.2 127
Anjaan 61,500 57
The Trip to Italy 32,600 6
Frank 5,500 1
Life After Beth 5,300 2
Lovers 3,500 9
Fort McCoy 2,600 2
Abuse of Weakness 2,600 1
Dinosaur 13 2,500 14
Jelousy 1,700 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office