Night Moves

By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

The Weekend Report, June 10, 2012

Pacquiao vs. Bradley wasn’t the only weekend surprise.

The weekend’s other curious match-up pitted Prometheus, a quasi-prequel to Alien, against the third installment of the animated Madagascar franchise. Tracking, gut instinct and tossing the I Ching all favored the space odyssey. But while Prometheus led Friday box office, Saturday and projected Sunday matinee business provided Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted the edge with a projected $59.9 million weekend. Prometheus debuted with a still impressive $50.1 million.

The session featured just OK response to the latest Bollywood entry Shanghai—loosely based on the classic Z—of $122,000 at 37 venues and similar response for the American indie Peace, Love & Misunderstanding of $103,000 from 30 screens. Also several exclusive launches showed promise including Safety Not Guaranteed with just shy of $100,000 at nine sites, $54,600 for the Canadian bow of Cannes grad Cosmopolis; and a solo $13,700 for Dark Horse from startup Brainstorm Media.

Overall weekend revenues topped $180 million for a sizeable 27% boost from seven days back and a 32% improvement from 2011’s comparable three-day. One year back the top spot went to the opening of Super 8 with $35.4 million with the second weekend of X-Men: First Class the runner-up with $24.1 million.

Industry trackers had pegged the Madagascar 3 opening at $50-$55 million with Prometheus ahead at $55-$60 million. It’s well known that tracking family films is precarious if for no other reason that polling rarely or minimally talks to anyone younger than 16 years of age. One can be relatively certain that a healthy chunk of the 54% of M3’s opening weekend audience were in their early teens and younger. Exit demos also tilted 56% female.

Of note this weekend was the fact that both of the national debuts were 3D offering with 74% of Madagascar playdates stereoscopic and Prometheus going out with 92% of its engagements in the process. However, 3D accounted for 42% and 54% of the respective films box office.

It’s jaw-dropping how quickly 3D has gone from industry salvation to an enhancement that a majority of viewers don’t want to pay the extra gelt to experience. The majors have all done internal studies about response to stereoscopic movies and anecdotally moviegoers simply don’t feel that the added experience is worth an additional surcharge. That’s a telling response in the current economic climate. It’s also disturbing looking forward in the light of the boost 3D continues to provide in most international markets.


Weekend (estimates) June 8 – 10, 2012
Title Distributor Gross (average) % change * Theaters Cume
Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted Par 59.9 (14,070) NEW 4258 59.9
Prometheus Fox 50.1 (14,750) NEW 3396 50.1
Snow White and the Huntsman Uni 23.0 (6,080) -59% 3777 98.5
Men in Black III Sony 13.7 (3,620) -51% 3792 135.7
The Avengers BV 11.1 (3,550) -46% 3129 572.2
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel Fox Searchlight 3.2 (2,450) -29% 1298 30.9
What to Expect When You’re Expecting Lions Gate 2.7 (1,310) -38% 2087 35.8
Battleship Uni 2.3 (1,160) -56% 1954 59.8
The Dictator Par 2.2 (1,330) -53% 1651 55.2
Moonrise Kingdom Focus 1.6 (16,560) 81% 96 3.8
Dark Shadows WB 1.3 (860) -64% 1550 73.7
The Hunger Games Lions Gate 1.1 (1,480) -29% 751 400.3
For Greater Glory Arc Entertainment .85 (1,320) -55% 642 3.4
Bernie Millennium .83 (2,500) -8% 332 4.8
Chernobyl Diaries WB .82 (690) -74% 1180 16.9
Intouchables Alliance/Weinstein .44 (3,980) -4% 111 3.5
Mirror Mirror Relativity .38 (1,270) 4% 303 63.5
The Lucky One WB .35 (860) 7% 402 59.5
Think Like a Man Sony .32 (1,110) -53% 287 90.3
Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax Uni .31 (1,060) -10% 290 212
To the Arctic WB .29 (5,760) 37% 51 3.3
21 Jump Street Sony .28 (1,020) -25% 275 137.7
The Three Stooges Fox .24 (1,000) -10% 243 43.1
Crooked Arrows Branded Pictures .23 (820) -64% 278 1.6
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $137.46
% Change (Last Year) 32%
% Change (Last Week) 27%
Also debuting/expanding
Hysterical Sony Classics .16 (1,890) -7% 84 0.7
Shanghai FLF .12 (3,310) 37 0.12
Peace, Love & Misunderstanding IFC .10 (3,430) 30 0.1
Safety Not Guaranteed Film District .10 (10,720) 9 0.1
Cosmopolis eOne 54,600 (9,100) 6 0.05
Endukantty Premantta Ficus 52,300 (1,580) 33 0.05
Where Do We Go Now? Sony Classics 38,200 (1,230) -52% 31 0.32
Bel Ami Magnolia 37,200 (2,320) 16 0.04
Lola Versus Searchlight 33,600 (8,400) 4 0.03
Double Trouble China Lion 17,100 (1,420) 12 0.02
Dark Horse Brainstorm 13,700 (13,700) 1 0.01
For the Love of Money Archstone 9,500 (1,900) 5 0.01
Cartas a Elena FreeStyle 6,800 (570) 12 0.01
Poulet aux prunes Alliance 4,900 (1,630) 3 0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 – June 7, 2012)
Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Buena Vista (9) 780.6 17.10%
Sony (13) 676.3 14.80%
Universal (10) 662.5 14.50%
Lions Gate (9) 560.5 12.30%
Warner Bros. (16) 536.8 11.80%
20th Century Fox (9) 344.8 7.60%
Paramount (12) 342.9 7.60%
Relativity (5) 168.8 3.70%
Weinstein Co. (8) 82.2 1.80%
Fox Searchlight (5) 74.2 1.60%
Open Road (3) 72.2 1.60%
CBS (2) 63.5 1.40%
Summit (4) 47.1 1.00%
Focus (4) 24.2 0.50%
Sony Classics (13) 21.5 0.50%
Other * (150) 100.9 2.20%
4559 100.00%

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Lucy 17 3173 NEW 17
Hercules 11 3595 NEW 11
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 4.7 3668 -55% 160.4
The Purge: Anarchy 3.4 2856 -65% 44.8
Planes: Fire & Rescue 2.8 3839 -57% 28.6
Sex Tape 1.9 3062 -68% 22.8
And So It Goes 1.3 1762 NEW 1.3
Transformers: Age of Extinction 1.3 2476 -54% 233
Tammy 1.1 2562 -54% 75.8
22 Jump Street 0.8 1613 -46% 183.9
Also Debuting
A Most Wanted Man 0.71 361
The Fluffy Movie 0.51 432
Kick 0.37 179
Magic in the Moonlight 0.12 17
She's Dating the Gangster 70,000 46
Alludu Seenu 29,100 86
The Divine Move 13,000 11
Happy Christmas 4,150 4
A Master Builder 3,100 2
Thirumanam Ennum Nikkah 2,800 13
Eyjafjallajokull 1,800 4
Come Back to Me 1,500 8
A Letter to Momo 1,100 1
Very Good Girls 1,100 9
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office