MCN Blogs
David Poland

By David Poland

3-Day Weekend Estimates by Big Lenny Time

23 Responses to “3-Day Weekend Estimates by Big Lenny Time”

  1. Jason B says:

    I did think Battleship would miss domestically, but yikes. It won’t make $100M and probably finish around $75M. Only thing saving it from complete disaster is worldwide (and even that isn’t great).

    Avengers keeps steam rolling. One wonders if it will have enough to reach $600M domestically and that would be huge plus.

  2. Joe Leydon says:

    Happy to see Darling Companion holding in there. Maybe good word of mouth is helping?

  3. Gus says:

    Shouldn’t be a problem getting to $600M for Avengers at this point. It’ll be over $520M after today, and with a $36M 3-day weekend and consistent sub-50% holds, it should have a solid $100M left in the tank.

  4. christian says:

    Pity the poor Wes Anderson haters.

  5. Anthony says:

    Pity poor Taylor Kitsch’s 2012 movie career.

  6. BoulderKid says:

    Battleship is as big of a bomb both domestically and worldwide as John Carter. Why is no one talking about this? The industry was waiting with baited breath for John Carter to land with a thud. Once it did the NY Times and WSJ had multiple stories on what a disaster it was. Why do Berg and co. get a pass for something that was so clearly attempting to ape Transformer’s success?

  7. Eric says:

    Nobody’s going to bother tearing apart a movie that even the filmmakers weren’t interested in.

  8. JS Partisan says:

    Christian, if you continually praise the Avengers and bash Wes Anderson haters, this is what you are going to inspire from me:

  9. anghus says:

    Avengers has just steamrolled May.

    The danger of having the biggest movie of the Summer open first is that everything else seems underwhelming.

    Still trying to figure out if Avengers is good or bad for Amazing Spiderman because right now Amazing Spiderman is marketing itself into mediocrity

  10. movieman says:

    That’s a $733-per screen average for “Mighty Fine,” not $7,420-whatever.

  11. Roy Batty says:

    Find I have mixed feelings now about AVENGERS breaking more records. On the one hand, it’s not superior to DARK KNIGHT which it will surpass this week domestically. On the other, certainly better than seeing BREAKING DAWN do it and it’s now unlikely the latter can break any of these.

  12. Roy Batty says:

    @christian – hate to burst your bubble, but 2 screens here and I assume 2 more in New York do nothing towards predicting what MOONRISE KINGDOM is going to do in general release. I remember GRAND CANYON was on like half a dozen screens during winter of ’91 and selling out most of them Christmas weekend, yet not exactly remembered as a blockbuster these days is it?

    Sad truth is, Wes Anderson has a horrible track record, even with foreign returns thrown in. Only one film, ROYAL TENENBAUMS, managed to do more than barely recoup its costs and even then it didn’t exactly put Porches in anyone’s driveway.

  13. chris says:

    After “Midnight in Paris,” “Exotic Marigold” and soon-to-be “Moonrise,” May 2013 will be logjammed with hopeful breakout specialty films. Which could be nice for moviegoers, anyway.

  14. christian says:

    “yet not exactly remembered as a blockbuster these days is it?”

    I didn’t predict anything. I happen to have loved GRAND CANYON on release and to this day. Thank God my metric is not box-office or I’d not remember an awful lot of classic films.

    Oh shit, TWO LANE BLACKTOP flopped! I’ll never look back on that one! Etc.

    “even then it didn’t exactly put Porches in anyone’s driveway.”

    THIS will keep me up late at nights.

  15. Roy Batty says:

    “Thank God my metric is not box-office…”

    Then why on earth are you commenting in a thread about, uh, box office?

    That is the point of this, not whether or not any of these films are worth a good god damn. I’m one of the few people who actually saw DONNIE DARKO in it’s original theatrical release, one of my fav’s. Yet, I will not hesitate to tell you it didn’t make dick and Kelley’s track record since make it harder for him to make more films.

    It’s bad enough when you have a thread about a film and some of the other commentators start having cows because the box office starts getting discussed. But here we have a thread that’s ENTIRELY DEVOTED TO IT and someone is trying to play the “appraising art via money is so bourgeois” card.

    Hate to break it to you, but film is a rather expensive art form and if you don’t return the money your investors give you to make your art WITH PROFIT then you are going to find it harder to keep making your art.

    Had RIDE THE WHIRLWIND and THE SHOOTING tanked, I doubt that Michael Laughlin would have trusted Monte Hellman enough to let him throw out the original story of BLACKTOP and rewrite it with Wurlitzer.

  16. Joe Leydon says:

    Roy: Er, you mean The Shooting and Ride the Whirlwind didn’t tank?

  17. Krillian says:

    I loved Grand Canyon. Saw it in theaters.

    Didn’t Fight Club “disappoint” at the box-office? Does anyone care?

    BUT… now we know. If you’re going to spend $200+ million on a picture, might as well try to get someone more famous than Taylor Kitsch to headline it.

  18. christian says:

    Roy, if all you care about is money, check out the Wall Street Journal.

  19. JKill says:

    BERNIE is doing pretty well too.

  20. Joshua says:

    It looks like Wes Anderson always has a great per-screen average opening weekend, at least for his last 5 films (I can’t find data for Rushmore, and Bottle Rocket’s opening was less sensational).

    The Darjeeling Limited averaged $67,469 on 2 screens.
    Fantastic Mr. Fox averaged $66,475 on 4 screens.
    The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou averaged $56,542 on 2 screens.
    The Royal Tenenbaums averaged $55,396 on 5 screens.

    But there doesn’t appear to be a strong correlation between a tremendous per-screen average opening weekend and later box-office success.

  21. jesse says:

    Joshua, quite right, although it’s worth pointing out that Moonrise Kingdom somehow did twice the previous highs, and I would imagine Focus is expecting something very much in the range of those movies’ final grosses: somewhere between $12 million and $52 million (though I suppose they’d be disappointed if it drooped outside of limited release the way Darjeeling in particular did). The typical Anderson movie does in the $20 million range, which is pretty decent for a limited release Focus type of movie.

    Obviously it would be great if this one could do more; maybe the per screen hints at that. If it’s well-handled and doesn’t go too wide too fast (but also doesn’t languish on 50 screens for too long), I could see it doing 30+.

  22. Chucky says:

    Focus should do everything to take “Moonrise Kingdom” national and not stick it in the arthouse ghetto. If you’ve got a movie with star power, it makes more sense to get it into good theaters with digital projection rather than dumpy arthouses that are 35mm only.

  23. Chucky says:

    I take back what I said above. Online ads for “Moonrise Kingdom” now feature a blurb from Mr. Quote Whore himself, Peter Travers.

    Also, “Hysterical” is actually called “Hysteria.”

The Hot Blog

movieman on: BYOBlog

leahnz on: BYOBlog

Stella's Boy on: BYOB - RIP The Goldfinch

Stella's Boy on: BYOBlog

movieman on: BYOBlog

leahnz on: BYOBlog

palmtree on: BYOBlog

leahnz on: BYOB - RIP The Goldfinch

leahnz on: BYOBlog

Stella's Boy on: BYOBlog

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4