MCN Columnists
Leonard Klady

By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

The Weekend Report: March 4, 2012

X is for LoraX


Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax
was a clear winner as it exploded to an estimated $70.5 million for the weekend box office crown. Bridesmaid spot went to the frame’s other newcomer the raunchy Project X with $20.5 million.

The limited bow of Tim and Eric’s Billion Dollar Movie was short of the titular mark with a $93,200 gross at 24 venues. However, several exclusives got off to encouraging starts including the father-son Being Flynn with $45,300 on four screens, New Zealand’s Boy at $28,400 at two sites and Italian The Salt of Life with $26,700from three locations.

With weekend revenues pushing close to $170 million there was a post-Oscar bump of sorts with box office up 29% from last weekend and 26% improved from 2011. Last year’s box office was led by eventual Oscar winner Rango’s $38.1 million debut with place position to debuting The Adjustment Bureau with $21.2 million.

Clearly no one saw The Lorax coming with so much force though pundits predicted a sizeable opening pegged between $45 million and $50 million. It was the highest opening for an original animated picture ever and ranked third best all-time March opener. But just 52% of ticket buyers opted for 3D engagements suggesting that audiences still have a recession attitude toward stereoscopic films.

Not surprisingly the audience was 68% families though its gross clearly indicated considerable business beyond matinees. There was also a 60% tilt toward female viewers.

Project X also hit a bull’s eye with its targeted young male crowd. Its exit demos identified a 58% swing toward the boys and 67% of viewers aged 25 years and younger. Generally positive reviews helped the picture exceed high end projections of $18 million.

Meanwhile Oscar favorite The Artist added close to 800 playdates and received a modest 27% box office boost. The real beneficiaries of Academy favor were niche winners A Separation and the documentary Undefeated. The former had its first $1 million weekend as it expanded from 83 to 243 locations and the football doc added eight venues that swelled its coffers 328%.

Holdover titles generally experienced 45% to 50% declines with sturdier titles ranging from the likes of This Means War and Safe House. Major releases have dominated Q1 box office with few crossover successes if you exclude the seasonal award contenders.

Weekend (estimates) March 2 – 4, 2012
Title Distributor Gross (avg) % chng Thtrs Cume
Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax Uni 70.5 (18,910) NEW 3729 70.5
Project X WB 20.5 (6,700) NEW 3065 20.5
Act of Valor Relativity 13.3 (4,360) -46% 3053 44.9
Safe House Uni 7.2 (2,820) -34% 2553 108.2
Good Deeds Lions Gate 6.8 (3,180) -56% 2132 25.5
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island WB 6.7 (2,190) -50% 3060 85.4
The Vow Sony 6.0 (2,120) -40% 2826 111.6
This Means War Fox 5.5 (2,360) -34% 2342 41.4
Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance Sony 4.6 (1,860) -49% 2487 44.8
Wanderlust Uni 3.7 (1,860) -43% 2002 12.4
The Artist Weinstein Co. 3.7 (2,100) 27% 1756 36.9
Gone Summit 3.0 (1,390) -37% 2186 9
Chronicle Fox 1.9 (1,820) -48% 1054 60.8
The Secret of Arrietty BV 1.5 (1,030) -66% 1431 16.7
The Descendants Fox Searchlight 1.3 (1,900) -38% 694 80.4
Hugo Par 1.3 (3,150) -15% 406 71.4
The Woman in Black CBS 1.1 (1,4100 -59% 804 52.2
Star Wars, Episode 1 – 3D Fox 1.1 (1,460) -66% 731 42.2
A Separation Sony Classics 1.0 (3,990) 165% 243 3.7
The Iron Lady Weinstein Co. .81 (1,580) 16% 511 27
Goon Alliance .69 (3,070) -39% 225 2.4
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked Fox .34 (1,080) -10% 315 130.8
Big Miracle Uni .33 (920) -51% 359 19.4
The Grey Open Road/eOne .26 (850) -67% 308 50.7
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy Focus .25 (1,990) -27% 126 23.6
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $162.20
% Change (Last Year) 26%
% Change (Last Week) 29%
Also debuting/expanding
We Need to Talk About Kevin Oscilloscope .13 (3,240) 245% 40 0.81
Rampart Millennium .11 (2,170) 15% 52 0.53
In Darkness Sony Classics .11 (3,230) 20% 33 0.41
Tim and Eric’s Billion Dollar Movie Magnolia 93,200 (3,880) 24 0.09
Undefeated Weinstein Co. 82,600 (6,350) 328% 13 0.16
London Paris New York Fox Intl 56,800 (1,960) 29 0.06
Being Flynn Focus 45,300 (11,320) 4 0.05
Boy Paladin 28,400 (14,200) 2 0.03
The Salt of Life Zeitgeist 26,700 (8,900) 3 0.03
Paan Singh Tomar UTV 19,200 (1,920) 10 0.02
This is Not a Film Palisades 12,600 (2,510) 5 0.01
Let the Bullets Fly Variance 11,100 (2,220) 5 0.01
Last Days Here IFC 2,600 (2,600) 1 0.01
Black Butterflies TriBeCa 1,450 (725) 2 0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 – March 1, 2012)
Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
20th Century Fox (8) 269.8 16.20%
Sony (9) 264.7 15.90%
Warner Bros. (10) 218.9 13.20%
Paramount (8) 202.8 12.20%
Universal (5) 196.6 11.80%
Buena Vista (6) 113.1 6.80%
Weinstein Co. (6) 60.9 3.70%
Relativity (3) 51.3 3.10%
CBS (1) 51.1 3.10%
Open Road (1) 46.1 2.80%
Lions Gate (2) 44.7 2.70%
Fox Searchlight (3) 42.4 2.50%
Summit (4) 40.8 2.40%
Focus (2) 20.5 1.20%
Sony Classics (7) 8.4 0.50%
Other * (59) 31.4 1.90%
1663.5 100.00%

3 Responses to “The Weekend Report: March 4, 2012”

  1. JoJo says:

    Project X is at 28% positive at Rotten Tomatoes. How does that translate into “generally positive reviews?”

  2. Christian says:

    How does a 46% drop for last week’s number one film rate? The percentage drop seems modest by current standards, but I don’t know whether “Valor” added screens in its second week.

  3. cadavra says:

    Sad that LET THE BULLETS FLY didn’t, er, fly. I wish the studios were capable of making an action film even 1/10 as entertaining as this one.

Leave a Reply

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
The Purge: Anarchy 12.9 2806 NEW 12.9
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 10.4 3969 -62% 113.4
Planes: Fire & Rescue 6.3 3826 NEW 6.3
Sex Tape 5.6 3062 NEW 5.6
Transformers: Age of Extinction 2.7 3224 -45% 219.9
Tammy 2.3 3402 -45% 65.9
22 Jump Street 1.4 2229 -31% 177.2
How to Train Your Dragon 2 1.1 2169 -40% 157.9
Earth to Echo 1 2450 -44% 29.7
Maleficent 0.9 1541 -27% 226
Also Debuting
Persecuted 0.31 736
Wish I Was Here 0.15 68
Velaiyilla Pattathari 61,800 31
Mood Indigo 10,400 2
There's No Place Like Utopia 10,300 1
I Origins 9,500 4
A Five Star Life 4,000 1
Alive Inside 3,600 1
An American in Hollywood 2,750 4
Among Ravens 2,000 4
Video Games 1,700 6
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office