Night Moves
MCN Columnists
Leonard Klady

By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

The Weekend Report: February 12, 2012

Safe and Sound

The weekend turned out to be more of a horse race than anticipated with the four hankie The Vow pitted against the Bourne again spy antics of Safe House. Ultimately sentiment won out with the romantic yarn earning an estimated $41.4 million to the thriller’s $39.3 million. Two other national releases rounded out the top of the list with the stereoscopic adventure Journey 2: The Mysterious Island grossing $27.5 million and the 3D enhanced Star Wars, Episode 1 adding $22.9 million to the pot.

Overall that spurred record breaking box office revenues for the period that put big smiles on all sectors of the industry.

The session also featured a strong $632,000 bow for Bollywood entry Ek Main aur Ekk Tu and a fast $311,000 start for the 2012 edition of Oscar Nominated Shorts. The non-Oscar nominated Rampart had an impressive $60,500 bow on five screens while Oscar short listed foreign-language entry In Darkness garnered $26,400 from three venues. Also boffo was surprise animation nominee Chico & Rita with $20,700 at a single site and Hungarian Oscar submission The Turin Horse scoring $9,300 from another solo flight.

Weekend revenues edged close to $195 million that expanded last weekend biz (hit by the largest viewership ever for a Super Bowl) by 66% as well as a 29% boost from 2011. A year ago five new films led the charts with the top trio of Just Go With It, Justin Bieber: Never Say Never and Gnomeo and Juliet entering the fray respectively with $30.5 million, $29.5 million and $25.4 million.

The Vow, a Nicolas Sparks’ like romantic saga, always appeared to have the edge on Safe House with tracking that pegged it about $5 million ahead with weekend estimates generally in the mid-$30 million range. Obviously both films exceeded expectations, particularly the latter Denzl Washington vehicle.

Not unexpected was the 72% female demos for The Vow (Safe House attracted 50%) but while it was anticipated to attract an older crowd, exit polls indicated an audience that was 55% aged 25 years old and younger. Conversely Safe House drew a 62% crowd aged 30 years and older. It also skewed African American with 38% of viewers compared with 31% identified as Caucasian and 23% Hispanic.

Journey 2, targeted at families, also outpaced projections in the mid-teens that would have had it fourth behind the Star Wars reissue that was anticipated to bring in $20 million.

The new titles pushed Oscar contenders further into the niches. None of the best picture nominees has sustained momentum as the awards approach though those still on screen will likely receive a boost next week … if they can maintain current screen counts. Ironically there was a better than usual response to the program of Academy nominated shorts but generally the lack of frontrunners in high profile categories has robbed the event of suspense or the prospect of a favorite getting his/her due.

Weekend (estimates) February 10 – 12, 2012
Title Distributor Gross (avg) % chng Thtrs
The Vow Sony 41.4 (14,000) 2958 NEW
Safe House Uni 39.3 (12,590) 3119 NEW
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island WB 27.5 (7,920) 3470 NEW
Star Wars, Episode 1 – 3D Fox 22.9 (8,990) 2655 NEW
Chronicle Fox 12.3 (4,220) -44% 2908
The Woman in Black CBS 10.6 (3,700) -49% 2856
The Grey Open Road/eOne 4.9 (1,740) -48% 2801
Big Miracle Uni 3.8 (1,800) -51% 2133
The Descendants Fox Searchlight 3.4 (2,170) -24% 1581
Underworld: Awakening Sony 2.4 (1,430) -57% 1657
Red Tails Fox 2.4 (1,510) -50% 1580
One For the Money Lions Gate 2.3 (1,110) -56% 2056
The Artist Weinstein Co. 2.2 (2,770) -14% 808
Hugo Par 1.8 (2,590) -20% 702
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close WB 1.5 (1,070) -61% 1375
Man on a Ledge Summit 1.3 (930) -70% 1423
Contraband Uni 1.2 (1,120) -64% 1081
The Iron Lady Weinstein Co. 1.1 (2,170) -42% 512
Beauty and the Beast BV .79 (1,170) -69% 678
Mission Impossible – Ghost Protocol Par .72 (1,540) -58% 469
Ek Main aur Ekk Tu UTV .63 (5,640) NEW 112
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy Focus .54 (2,320) -19% 233
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked Fox .53 (1,060) -49% 502
Joyful Noise WB .49 (710) -66% 686
War Horse BV .42 (840) -56% 502
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $186.00
% Change (Last Year) 29%
% Change (Last Week) 66%
Also debuting/expanding
Oscar Nominated Shorts 2012 Magnolia .31 (3,080) 101
A Separation Sony Classics .28 (6,290) -12% 45
Albert Nobbs Roadside/eOne .26 (1,730) -47% 151
A Dangerous Method Sony Class/eOne .19 (1,810) -40% 107
Rampart Millennium 60,500 (12,100) 5
W.E. Weinstein Co, 58,100 (3,420) 23% 17
Coriolanus Weinstein Co. 31,200 (2,840) -30% 11
In Darkness Sony Classics 26,400 (8,800) 3
Chico & Rita Gkids 20,700 (20,700) 1
The Turin Horse Cinema Guild 9,300 (9,300) 1
Exit Strategy Level 33 7,200 (3,600) 2
Return Dada 6,800 (3,400) 2
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 – Feb. 9, 2012)
Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Paramount (8) 190.9 19.00%
20th Century Fox (6) 152.2 15.20%
Warner Bros. (9) 132.5 13.20%
Sony (7) 110.9 11.10%
Buena Vista (5) 93.9 9.40%
Universal (3) 74.2 7.40%
Weinstein Co. (5) 43.5 4.30%
Open Road (1) 34.6 3.50%
Summit (3) 31.8 3.20%
Fox Searchlight (3) 30.3 3.00%
CBS (1) 25.1 2.50%
Lions Gate (1) 21.4 2.10%
Relativity (2) 19.2 1.90%
Focus (2) 18.4 1.80%
Sony Classics (6) 5.8 0.60%
Other * (34) 18.3 1.80%
1003 100.00%
* none greater than 0.04%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 – Feb. 9, 2012) *
Title Distributor Gross
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol * Par 83,460,476
Contraband Uni 63,383,485
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows * WB 60,192,669
Underworld: Awakening Sony 56,434,369
The Devil Inside Par 53,114,763
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo * Sony 49,982,099
Beauty and the Beast 3D (reissue BV 45,623,195
Red Tails Fox 42,663,386
War Horse * BV 41,396,177
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked * Fox 40,368,658
The Grey Open Road/eOne 37,742,264
We Bought a Zoo * Fox 36,046,452
The Adventures of Tintin * Par 31,679,431
Joyful Noise WB 29,400,513
The Descendants * Fox Searchlight 28,854,582
Chronicle Fox 27,867,267
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close * WB 27,665,966
The Woman in Black CBS 25,155,487
The Iron Lady * Weinstein Co. 21,498,543
One For the Money Lions Gate 21,378,705

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
The Purge: Anarchy 12.9 2806 NEW 12.9
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 10.4 3969 -62% 113.4
Planes: Fire & Rescue 6.3 3826 NEW 6.3
Sex Tape 5.6 3062 NEW 5.6
Transformers: Age of Extinction 2.7 3224 -45% 219.9
Tammy 2.3 3402 -45% 65.9
22 Jump Street 1.4 2229 -31% 177.2
How to Train Your Dragon 2 1.1 2169 -40% 157.9
Earth to Echo 1 2450 -44% 29.7
Maleficent 0.9 1541 -27% 226
Also Debuting
Persecuted 0.31 736
Wish I Was Here 0.15 68
Velaiyilla Pattathari 61,800 31
Mood Indigo 10,400 2
There's No Place Like Utopia 10,300 1
I Origins 9,500 4
A Five Star Life 4,000 1
Alive Inside 3,600 1
An American in Hollywood 2,750 4
Among Ravens 2,000 4
Video Games 1,700 6
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office