By David Poland email@example.com
PGA Tees Off… Shoots For Par
I know some of you are sick of hearing it… I’m sick of writing it. But The Producer’s Guild announced their 10 today and… TAA DAH!!!… changed nothing.
The single interesting thing about the list is the inclusion of Bridesmaids, which shouldn’t be too much of a shock. But there is a wave of energy in that direction in terms of a potential Oscar nomination, though still a very, very, very long shot.
The question for Oscar remains, how many slots. I am in the camp of 7 or 8… more likely 7. Because of the nominating system, which relies on recycled ballots to build the number of nominees, and the seeming balance amongst the 13 films that seem to be in contention (see: Gurus), I expect no more than 2 films to get ballots’ #2 votes to get redistributed and a relatively small number of ballot #2s to be redistributed by disqualification (less than 1% of the vote).
So look for the highest passion films to get in and for the quirky picks to be forgotten. In Gurus terms, that makes 1-7 likely and 8-13 unlikely, in any order. And 8-13 is where the “surprises” were on the PGA ballot. #8 The Tree of Life, #9 Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and #10 Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close did not get in. #11 The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, #12 The Ides of March, and #13 Bridesmaids did.
And your likely nominees list continues to be The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, War Horse, The Help, Midnight in Paris, and Moneyball.
The PGA’s Animations nominees are pretty much exactly as expected, though there is some expectation that The Academy noms might include one of the smaller European films.
And in doc, PGA went off the Academy shortlist with 3 of 5 picks, matching only Bill Cunningham New York and Project Nim… though the non-shortlist picks are all ones that many had expected to make the shortlist.