Gurus o’ Gold: November 1, 2011


Rank Last Chart Best Picture BreznicanEllwoodHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonVanAirsdaleWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 The Descendants
1 1 1 2 1 5 1 1 3 2 1 1 12 136
2 3 The Artist
3 4 3 1 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 2 12 129
3 2 War Horse
2 2 2 3 3 3 4 6 1 7 3 6 12 114
4 4 Midnight In Paris
7 3 4 6 9 4 3 4 7 5 5 7 12 92
5 6 The Help
9 10 5 5 4 6 8 7 5 11 4 4 12 78
6 5 Moneyball
6 6 7 5 6 3 9 1 6 5 10 76
7 8 Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
5 5 10 4 7 7 10 4 6 10 8 11 67
8 9 Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
4 9 9 12 12 8 11 8 8 9 9 11 44
9 12 The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
12 10 2 7 5 12 11 3 8 42
10 10 The Ides of March
8 11 11 8 5 9 6 12 8 9 39
7 J Edgar
10 7 8 6 11 11 10 7 10 9 37
11 The Tree Of Life
6 7 11 9 12 10 4 12 11 9 35
Hugo
9 10 10 3 10
My Week With Marilyn
8 9 2 9
14 The Iron Lady
11 8 2 7
Shame
12 11 12 11 4 6
Tintin
12 8 2 6
15 We Bought A Zoo
9 12 2 5
One Vote Wonders
13 Young Adult
11 1 2
Drive
12 1 1


Rank Last Chart Best Actress BreznicanEllwoodHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonVanAirsdaleWloszczyna Votes Total
1 2 Viola Davis
The Help
2 3 1 2 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 12 64
2 1 Meryl Streep
The Iron Lady
3 2 2 1 2 4 1 2 2 4 2 1 12 58
3 4 Michelle Williams
My Weekend with Marilyn
1 1 4 4 4 1 4 6 5 2 4 3 12 45
4 3 Glenn Close
Albert Nobbs
4 4 6 3 3 6 3 3 3 3 3 5 12 38
5 5 Charlize Theron
Young Adult
5 5 5 6 5 4 6 4 8 16
Rooney Mara
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
6 2 4 6 5 6 6 13
Elizabeth Olsen
Martha Marcy Mae Marlene
6 3 5 6 5 5 10
Tilda Swinton
We Have To Talk About Kevin
6 5 5 3 5
One Vote Wonders
Felicity Jones
Like Crazy
5 1 2
Mia Wasikowska
Jane Eyre
6 1 1


Rank Last Chart Best Actor BreznicanEllwoodHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonVanAirsdaleWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 George Clooney
The Descendants
1 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 69
2 2 Jean Dujardin
The Artist
4 3 4 2 3 1 2 2 2 3 2 2 12 54
3 3 Brad Pitt
Moneyball
4 2 3 4 3 3 4 2 3 3 10 39
4 5 Leonardo DiCaprio
J. Edgar
3 2 3 4 5 5 4 3 5 6 10 30
5 4 Gary Oldman
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
2 5 6 6 1 4 6 4 5 4 5 11 29
Michael Fassbender
Shame
5 6 5 5 6 2 5 6 5 4 4 11 24
Woody Harrelson
Rampart
5 6 2 3
Michael Shannon
Take Shelter
6 6 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Jeremy Irvine
War Horse
6 1 1

Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actor BreznicanEllwoodHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonVanAirsdaleWloszczyna Votes Total
1 Christopher Plummer
Beginners
1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 11 64
t2 Albert Brooks
Drive
4 4 3 2 3 4 3 2 2 4 4 11 42
t2 Max von Sydow
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
6 2 2 6 2 3 1 3 2 1 10 42
4 Kenneth Branagh
My Week With Marilyn
2 2 3 3 5 5 3 3 8 30
5 Jonah Hill
Moneyball
6 5 4 4 4 6 5 7 15
Nick Nolte
Warrior
2 6 5 3 8
Armie Hammer
J. Edgar
3 6 5 3 7
Philip Seymour Hoffman
The Ides of March
3 6 6 3 6
Patton Oswalt
Young Adult
6 4 2 4
George Clooney
The Ides of March
4 6 2 4
John Hawkes
Martha Marcy May Marlene
6 4 2 4
Robert Forster
The Descendants
5 5 2 4
One Vote Wonders
Christopher Plummer
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
1 1 6
Brad Pitt
The Tree of Life
3 1 4
Andy Serkis
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
4 1 3
Niels Arestrup
War Horse
5 1 2
Corey Stoll
Midnight in Paris
5 1 2
Viggo Mortensen
A Dangerous Method
5 1 2
Ezra Miller
We Have To Talk About Kevin
5 1 2
Jim Broadbent
The Iron Lady
6 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actress BreznicanEllwoodHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonVanAirsdaleWloszczyna Votes Total
1 Octavia Spencer
The Help
2 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 3 1 1 12 66
2 Shailene Woodly
The Descendants
5 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 3 4 12 41
3 Vanessa Redgrave
Coriolanus
2 5 6 6 2 1 1 4 3 9 33
4 Berenice Bejo
The Artist
4 2 2 1 6 2 2 7 30
5 Janet McTeer
Albert Nobbs
2 2 3 3 4 5 21
Sandra Bullock
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3 5 4 5 4 5 6 7 17
Jessica Chastain
The Tree of Life
3 6 5 6 5 5 10
Judi Dench
J. Edgar
4 4 5 5 4 10
Melissa McCarthy
Bridesmaids
6 4 6 2 4 10
Carey Mulligan
Shame
1 6 2 7
One Vote Wonders
Marion Cotillard
Midnight in Paris
5 1 2
Jessica Chastain
The Help
5 1 2
Judi Dench
My Week with Marilyn
6 1 1
Amy Ryan
Win Win
6 1 1
Jessica Chastain
Take Shelter
6 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Director BreznicanEllwoodHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonVanAirsdaleWloszczyna Votes Total
1 Alexander Payne
The Descendants
1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 2 1 1 12 67
2 Steven Spielberg
War Horse
3 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 1 1 3 5 12 54
3 Michel Hazanavicius
The Artist
6 4 4 3 2 1 2 2 5 2 3 11 43
4 Woody Allen
Midnight in Paris
5 3 6 5 3 4 4 6 8 20
5 Stephen Daldry
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
2 5 4 5 4 4 6 7 19
David Fincher
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
6 6 5 5 5 2 6 13
Bennett Miller
Moneyball
6 3 3 4 4 12
Terrence Malick
The Tree of Life
4 5 6 5 5 6 6 11
Clint Eastwood
J. Edgar
3 4 4 3 10
George Clooney
The Ides of March
6 6 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Steve McQueen
Shame
6 1 1

8 Responses to “Gurus o’ Gold: November 1, 2011”

  1. movielocke says:

    Will War Horse explode the acting categories when it drops? Will the acting categories have too much critical Lock-In to allow any worthy War Horse Actors into the race? Or will it suffer the typical Spielberg fate of ignoring performances in his films?

    I think the only thing that surprises me in this set of charts is Payne at number one in director. The Descendants would be the film to beat in a year that didn’t have The Artist (which will win with ease, not even needing to break a sweat), so that puts Payne in the top tier. But this year has a particularly strong assortment of directing showcases–Fincher, Spielberg, Malick and Hazanavicius–that directors are likely to vote for. That leaves one slot for the film that doesn’t show off quite so much. I would put Payne (or Allen) in that slot for now, but he’s also got to contend with Academy favorites like Daldry and Eastwood. I feel like there’s more jockeying for the fifth slot in directing and betting on Payne is only because others are betting on him at this point; it makes me hesitant because betting on Payne means betting against Eastwood, Allen and Daldry. So Payne doesn’t feel crazy, just crazy as number one.

    And I do feel fairly certain in my top four of Hazanavicius, Fincher, Spielberg and Malick (even though Tree of Life will likely get only two nominations, director and cinematography).

    Trivia note, if Spielberg and Allen both get director nominations it will be their seventh nomination each, continuing the tie for most nominations by a living director (they’re currently tied at six each, along with Scorsese).

  2. Sam E says:

    Surprised to see Young Adult way down all the buzz I’ve heard coming from the screenings has been positive.

    I’m also still skeptical that the Artist won’t completely tank state side resulting in it being ignored.

  3. I already see the title: “The Help, the little movie that could”.

  4. You've Got it Wrong This Year. says:

    These gurus are really struggling this year, with nearly all the categories. These lists are going to change DRASTICALLY.

  5. I ask again, why isn’t Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 on the Best Picture list? It remains the best reviewed movie of the year, the highest grossing movie of the year and is the end to the most successful Hollywood franchise ever. Does it have no chance at Oscars?

  6. Ha says:

    Typical. This is going to change drastically soon.

  7. I can’t believe how underestimated Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is with the you guys. I’m pretty shocked, actually. I think it’s going to not only get nominated but WIN, along with Fincher, Mara (who is also mysteriously being under-predicted here), adapted screenplay, editing and quite likely more than a few techs.

    Also, Theron and Williams getting in over Mara and Elizabeth Olsen is not happening.

  8. Cinesnatch says:

    The way the Best Picture race is shaping up, I don’t foresee there being 10 picks. Probably six, with possible additions from films which haven’t opened yet.

    Best Actress category looks about right. I would say Theron is too high at this point and I don’t see Mara happening anymore. Of course, once the film is out, that all could change. I’d say Olsen and Swinton are battling it for the 5th spot as it stands.

    Best Actor looks spot on.

    Supporting Actress is highly competitive. Bejo is more competitive than she appears here. I wouldn’t rule McCarthy out. And, somewhere there just has to be a place for Jessica Chastain. She was so memorable in The Help. If The Tree of Life stages a competitive campaign, then that will probably be her in. (Take Shelter is petering out at the box office and its prospects are starting to look bleak) She’s had such a banner year. Perhaps that’s the rewards in itself.

    On the contrary, Supporting Actor looks very uncompetitive. Hard to believe Jonah Hill has a chance. But, it’s a pretty open field this year. This looks to be Christopher Plummer’s year?

    Best Director looks just about right, but I find it unlikely that Stephen Daldry will score a fourth nod. I just don’t see it. It’s amazing how few fresh faces there are in this category this year.

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