Friday Estimates by Reel Klady
If you look at the modern history of October movies, you’ll see that DreamWorks tried to break new ground with Real Steel. It will certainly play to some family business, but it looks like a tweener… a big action movie based around punching that has a warm father-child story in the middle. At least, that’s what they’re selling. I turned down my multiple invitations to see the film because of “the Don Murphy situation.” so I haven’t seen the actual film. It’s gotten some nice notices, especially from EW’s Anthony Breznican, who really embraced the family angle. In any case, DreamWorks/Disney were trying to thread the needle.
October tends to be loaded with R-rated films and PG-13 that are close to Rs; horror, adult dramas, the occasional adult comedy, and kids films. Your top 5 October openers are Jackass 3D, Scary Movie 3, Shark Tale, High School Musical 3, and Paranormal Activity 2. All 31 films to open over $20m in October were in the last decade and the breakout is: 10 horror films, 5 adult dramas, 4 adult comedies, 4 kids films, and 8 “other” (Jackass 1 & 3, This Is It, Kill Bill V1, Ladder 49, Red, Law Abiding Citizen, Friday Night Lights).
What you don’t see are any 4-quadrant family-safe sometimes-adventure-y populist fare, aka Sean Levy films. You get down under the $20m openings and find the occasional School of Rock or The Legend of Zorro or Demolition Man, but you’re really going down the list on $s to find those.
Point is… gutsy date. Weird date for this movie. And will it pay off? I’ll stay away from budget on this one…
(EDIT: 4:17p – It’s very, very important to Don Murphy that you know that it’s not him defending Real Steel’s budget in the Comments section on Deadline. I wrote, “Don already seems to be fighting that fight at Deadline…” And now, having removed this very important 10 words… and offering my deepest apologies for assuming that Don was behaving like Don… back to the analysis)
… where someone is claiming to have been told $147m after rebates and someone else is saying $80m. Truth is, the potential profit of this film is in international, where it could very well be another Disney film that does multiples of the domestic gross overseas.
That said, the weekend estimate fed to Finke by Disney of $26m doesn’t seem likely. There are not a lot of films with history to sample that fit in any way with this film or this opening number. But Zombieland opened to $9.5m, did a $24.7m 3-day. The Departed, $8.7m/$26.9m, Where The Wild Things Are, $12m/$32.7m, Beverly Hills Chihuahua, $8m/$29.3m. Will it play like a kids film? Will it be a date movie? Will teens buzz positively? No one really knows. If I had to bet, I’d bet $24m and change… not in tomorrow’s estimates, but in the finals. But who knows?
The Ides of March is a more traditional choice in this release slot and will get fairly expected numbers. 2006: Flags of Our Fathers, 2007: Michael Clayton, 2008: W., 2009: n/a, 2010: Hereafter. They all opened between $10m and $12m. Ides will probably be on the low end, but it will be right in there. Anyone who is surprised or throwing crap at Clooney or Ryan Gosling for this opening is an idiot. And keep in mind, Sony created its own competition by releasing Moneyball three weekend ago. The Pitt film has a slightly more expansive base, but it includes the Ides audience. Asking over-40s to go out to the movies twice in 3 weekends is a tough get once you get out of the big cities.
Another strong hold for Dolphin Tale. Maybe Alcon is the Anchutz that Anchutz wanted to be.
Moneyball is paying some price for Ides’ entry into the market, off an estimated 43% yesterday. So is 50/50, though it’s decent hold these days.
At the arthouses, The Doo-Doo Movie With The Ugly Guy did pretty well last night. Perhaps some enterprising state with budget troubles will invest in portable bleachers so they can charge people to watch dead bodies pulled out of car wrecks… or if they’re lucky, the mobs can watch people trapped in the car when it explodes and audiences can watch them die, screaming as they burn to death. (There will be an extra charge if that happens… a 3D bump… death, dismemberment, dehumanization.) And somewhere, a critic will rationalize it.
Wow.
9:20 EST, and I’m the first to comment on Friday’s b.o. estimates.
Could it be because both wide releases (“RS” and “IOM”) performed exactly as predicted and there’s really nothing to say?
On the limited release front, “Dirty Girl” looks like an even bigger Weinstein loser than “Submarine,” and not even the (surprisingly) positive reviews could get anyone interested in seeing “The Way.” (Was it a mistake to market the Estevez film to faith versus arthouse auds?)
Kind of surprised that “Centipede 2″ opened in just 9 theaters. And that Cleveland had one of them.
I think it’s because no dares to discuss THE AWESOME REAL STEEL and risk annoying Poland.
It RULED. RULED. RULED. Plays like Any Which Way You Can meets Over the Top meets Transformers, with a fantastic Jackman leading-man performance.
On an entirely unrelated note: Gus Van Sant’s RESTLESS is entirely gone from all theaters anywhere after three weeks; It’s a hard argument to make, since she was in a MONSTER hit in ALICE IN WONDERLAND, but is it possible Mia Wasikowska has never sold a SINGLE ticket to a mass-audience member of the general public on marquee value? I like her, but it’s weird that she gets four or five movies a year, and literally NOOOOOOO ONE in “real life” is a fan of her or even knows who she is.
Next week is the clusterfuck of ALL time: The Thing, Footloose, Steve Martin’s Silly Hat, Trespass, and Texas Killing Fields. Again, too many goddamn movies.
Centipede in LA gets ONE MIDNIGHT SHOW a day at the ass-end-of-town Nuart. TOTAL bullshit.
Mentioning “ass” and “shit” so close to Centipede: Deliberate joke or Freudian slip? You decide.
Puzzled as to why “Centipede 2″ only had midnight showings in every market that it opened in.
Maybe IFC figured it was the type of outre cult material that couldn’t play in the light of day.
Or are they simply fixated on the PPV and (future) DVD market(s)?
Jackman was fine, but “RS” lost me when the kid (a truly annoying kid btw) began busting some 1984-circa Michael Jackson moves. WTF?
Hope Davis was wasted (hope she received a nice fat check) and the Canadian chick from “Lost” proved that she belongs on the small screen. Zero multiplex charisma.
With apologies to Lex, I’m guessing you have to be under 12 to truly appreciate the genius of two-hours-plus of rock ‘em/sock ‘em robots.
I’m just pissed that Melancholia didn’t end up on my HD ON DEMAND lineup this weekend. Was counting on that.
For the record, I am absolutely fine with Real Steel doing great business, being beloved by all, and farting cotton candy.
Don’s drama has nothing to do with a movie that employed hundreds of people and cost two companies a good amount of money. I just want to minimize the harassment. (Didn’t work out so well today.)
Glad you loved it, Lex. And I’ll let you know when Shame screens.
joe, i think the sentence was intentional. i mean. come on,
“I had to go to the ass end of town to see Human Centipede 2″ is about the funniest thing i’ve read in ages. If that was unintentional, it was awesomely unintentional.
Actionman – you should only see Melancholia in a theater (first time through, anyway). Cannot imagine it working nearly as well on a TV, no matter how sophisticated one’s setup might be…
Agreed with Lex – Jackman really sells Real Steel, especially for those too young to have watched the “Rocky”s that it draws from (honestly, I can’t remember anything about “Over the Top” apart from that stupid grip). The kids behind me got so into it I had to move cos they’d explode with excitement and whack my seat during the fights.
The kid isn’t as annoying as some naysayers predict (a lot of film geeks seem to regard any father/son-style bonding as an horrific offense to their sensibilities) and Elfman is drawing from “The Kingdom” well. I get the feeling a few chunks were left on the editing floor – Evangeline Lily’s relationships with the men in her life (probably a good call as it may have drawn away from the straightforward narrative), and the final fight is pretty much montaged except for the start and finish… which I get is trying to convey that it’s a grueling, drawn-out fight without actually boring the audience by being drawn-out… but given this is Levy’s first straight-up fighting gig it works pretty well.
As with a lot of things like Avatar etc. it’s not what sources it draws from, it’s how it’s put together – and this is a solid movie.
I don’t have a problem with father-son bonding in movies, Foamy.
“Field of Dreams” is one of my personal favorites, and I bawled my eyes out both times I saw “The Champ” back in 1979.
The kid actor in “RS” just annoyed the hell out of me.
I liked Jackman, but you probably have to be in the same age group as the kids whacking your seat to really, truly love a two-hour-plus movie about boxing robots.
Actionman—I just noticed that “Melancholia” was added to my cable VOD line-up yesterday, so it should probably be available via your cable provider by now, too. (Interestingly, it’s only available until November 11th–the same day it hits theaters–as opposed to the usual Magnolia theatrical/PPV day-and-date.)
Netflix queries:
(1) Does anyone know why N-flix is refusing to provide “A Serbian Film” to their subscribers?
(2) Is N-flix in hot water w/ Disney (which might explain why they still aren’t shipping “The Tempest” and/or “African Cats,” and still refuse to acknowledge they were released on September 13th and October 4th respectively)?
(3) Could someone explain to me why/how “The Greatest Movie Ever Sold” and “Exporting Raymond” could still be “very long waits” even though both titles were released two months ago–and neither was exactly a barn-burner theatrically? Is there only one copy of each film servicing the entire United States?
(4) And what’s the problem with “Terri” for ch—t’s sake? Amazon says that it’s being released this Tuesday, yet N-flix still lists the dvd release date as “unavailable.”
Smith — the one theater that Melancholia MIGHT open @ near me blows. I have a 50″ Sony Bravia LCD with Sony Bravia Wireless Surround. Trust me — I have a better set up than what’s routinely offered at the Bowtie Cinemas in Hartford. But believe me, I’d love to see it for the first time in a nice theater.
Movieman — thanks for the heads up — I will check it out right now.
Actionman – ah, of course – the shitty local indie theater. I should’ve known…