By David Poland email@example.com
Friday Estimates by Klady Boots
There’s no Saw.
Instead, we have an animated cat with a knife. Business is okay, not sensational. It’s at about the Rango level… a wisp behind. Still, given that there hasn’t been an animated $20m opening in October since Shark Tale, not bad. Look for mid-30s at the end of the weekend.
Interestingly, Puss seems to be the first serious blockade to Real Steel, which did a great job of getting the movie into the family market without being fully able to market to kids because of the rating. This will be Steel’s biggest drop. Meanwhile, it’s closing in on $100m overseas and it still hasn’t opened in heavyweight countries like Japan, Germany, or China.
Paranormal Activity 3 has an estimated 65% drop Friday-to-Friday, but keep that massive midnight Thursday push in mind. Expect a drop in the low-mid 50s when all is done. The Friday number here is more than 15% better than the second Friday for PA2 and the movie is $14m ahead overall. So Paramount has to be thrilled with the second weekend numbers. (They might want to send a fruit basket over to Lionsgate for not Saw-ing off some of the horror-ween money.)
On the other hand, $12 million and a cloud of bust can’t be too thrilling for Fox on In Time… or Justin Timberlake for that matter. This is his second lead since The Social Network and his second underperforming opening. Two things define movie stardom. 1. Open movies. 2. Make great movie choices that have legs. JT is a star, but he needs a real hit to become a movie star. Meanwhile, Amanada Seyfried’s people are probably feeling great about the dark hair about now… if they could only get imdb to pull the credit from her page. (It’s always possible that Fox International could find an audience overseas for this film and keep it out of the red. But it will be tough.)
The Rum Diary is Film District’s fourth release. Honestly, I don;’t know if it’s an output deal… but it feels like one. Late into the game and festival avoidant, it just smells funny… especially for a Depp movie. Johnny did the rounds. But a $5m launch is an oddity in his history. Usually it’s a movie that no one wants to see (whether of quality or not) or a smash (whether of quality or not). Don’t Be Afraid Of The Dark took lumps (unfairly, I feel) for its box office. It will be curious to see whether the press is gentler on Johnny.
While the holds last weekend seemed remarkable for the holdovers, this weekend, they seem remarkably weak. Only one Top 10 holdover out of seven is looking at a better than 49% hold for the weekend.
Two studio movies are opening in limited release this weekend. Sony’s Anonymous settled on 265 screens for a word-of-mouth effort. They just haven’t been able to convince enough people with advertising for this story. It looks like they’ll be around $3500 per screen for the weekend, which isn’t a disaster of 2012 proportions, but does explain why they are taking some more time to try to move this film forward. Audiences have enjoyed it. You just need to find a way to get them to see it.
The other one is Paramount’s Sundance acquisition, Like Crazy, which has been word-of-mouth screening like crazy and is looking at a $30k-$40k per screen over the weekend on just 4 screens. Good number. No a phenom number. But a solid start.