MCN Columnists
David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

20W20: Best Picture Chart, Oct 30, 2011

BEST PICTURE
Date
Picture
Studio
Director
Comment
Seen & Close to Certain
Open

Midnight in Paris

SPC
Allen
Their first love of 2011
Nov 23 The Artist
TWC
Hazanavicius
Their current love of 2011
Nov 18

The Descendants

FxSrch
Payne
The love to come in 2011
We’re Waiting!!!!
Dec 28

War Horse

DW/Dis
Spielberg
Old-fashioned… irony be damned
Dec 21

The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

Sony
Fincher
Who knows what darkness lurks… the Fincher does
Dec 25

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

WB
Daldry
Irony-Free: Epsiode Three
Nov 11

J Edgar

WB
Eastwood
Launches this week in earnest
Dec
23

We Bought A Zoo

Fox
Crowe
For the love of Cameron!
Dec 16

The Iron Lady

TWC
Lloyd
Trailer reduces it to a stunt
Being Seen And Well Buzzed
Open The Help
DW/Dis
Taylor
The light horse candidate (like to get in… the win would be shocking)
Nov
18

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Focus
Alfredson
Couldn’t be much better at what it seeks to be
Dec 2

Shame

FxSrch
McQueen
The serious art choice… is Oscar ready for that?
Dec 9

Young Adult

Par
Reitman
A movie that gets better in reflection… will Academy members catch on in time?
Open

The Tree of Life

FxSrch
Malick
Great Malick… will it stick?
Dec 23

Albert Nobbs
Road
Garcia
A very tough, challenging film… but could catch fire
Dec 23

Tintin

Par/DW
Spielberg
If there’s going to be a $600m ww grosser nom’ed, it’s this one
The Outsiders… At Least In This Category… At Least For Now
Nov 23

Hugo

Par
Scorsese
Par snobbed it up at NYFF… but will it survive critics who aren’t on fest helium?
Open

Moneyball

Sony
Miller
The 1st fall awards release… a good movie… but awards?
Open

The Ides of March

Sony
Clooney
Just hasn’t caught fire
Nov 23

A Dangerous Method

SPC
Cronenberg
Dry for Cronenberg… Knightley has lovers and haters… the guys are so good you take it for granted
Open

Take Shelter

SPC
Nichols
Terrific, tough little movie. Easy for it to get lost
Dec 2

The Lady

Cohen
Besson
There was a MAJOR recut… but is it ready for the big show?
Oct 28
Anonymous
Sony
Emmerich
Sony can’t find a mainstream aud for this one… if that continues, it disappears
Nov 18

Carnage

SPC
Polanski
Harsh, claustrophic, and not funny as it was on stage. Hard to see it rising
unknown
Rampart
Millenium
Moverman
Kind of this year’s Rabbit Hole… will fight for Best Actor, but the rest gets tough


3 Responses to “20W20: Best Picture Chart, Oct 30, 2011”

  1. Ian Mantgani says:

    Agree with your dead certs.

    As for the ones you’re “waiting for” – this is the same mistake Oscar pundits make every year; assuming that just because a new film is out by a previously nominated director, it has a chance at nomination. My guess: War Horse, J Edgar, We Bought a Zoo will all be disappointments, and they’re out. Iron Lady won’t be the kind of big film Oscar rewards at BP level, even if it does turn out to be good. Not so sure about the other two you list, but I’m gonna take a leap of faith and make a wild guess that Dragon Tattoo will be too poppy for Oscar and Extremely Loud will be one of those Soloist-type movies with pedigree that goes nowhere.

    As for the others on your chart… Roland Emmerich doesn’t get Oscar nominations, Anonymous is out. Neither does Besson – The Lady is out, unless it’s a career-changing masterpiece. Not many people in love with Carnage, that’s probably out. Ides of March just isn’t very good – I imagine that’s out. People who have seen Rampart say it is risible, awful, dire – OUT. Nobody likes Dangerous Method either. Albert Nobbs, I don’t know about. Young Adult and Hugo, we’ll have to see.

    So…

    The Artist, The Descendants, The Help and Midnight in Paris are in.

    Moneyball, Shame and Take Shelter are fair bets. In response to your TS comment, “little movies” don’t get lost if the Academy has an indie darling for the year (Winter’s Bone, for example… Frozen River would also have been nominated under the 10-slot list, although who knows if it would have under the weird new rules.)

    Gary Oldman will be remembered, so Tinker Tailor is in if nothing blows it out of the water in the next 2 months.

    You completely fail to mention The Tree of Life and We Need to Talk About Kevin.

  2. chris says:

    In terms of best picture, I bet DP is right on “Tree” and “Kevin.” Not so sure about “Young Adult,” which gets worse on reflection in my book.

  3. Ian Mantgani says:

    Dunno how the film will, or the book did, go down in the States, but “Kevin” is a bona fide phenomenon in the UK. (I think it looks like a load of crap, but at this point I’m intrigued enough to check ’em out.) Anyway, the UK voters alone might be enough to give it a nod.

Quote Unquotesee all »

“Well, actually, of that whole group that I call the post-60s anti-authority auteurs, a lot of them came from television. Peckinpah’s the only one whose television work represents his feature work. I mean, like the only one. Mark Rydell can direct a really good episode of ‘Gunsmoke’ and Michael Ritchie can direct a really good episode of ‘The Big Valley,’ but they don’t necessarily look like The Candidate. But Peckinpah’s stuff, even the scripts he wrote that he didn’t even direct, have a Peckinpah feel – the way I think there’s a Corbucci West – suggest a Peckinpah West. That even in his random episodes that he wrote for ‘Gunsmoke’ – it’s right there.”
~ Quentin Tarantino

“The thought is interrupted by an odd interlude. We are speaking in the side room of Casita, a swish and fairly busy Italian bistro in Aoyama – a district of Tokyo usually so replete with celebrities that they spark minimal fuss. Kojima’s fame, however, exceeds normal limits and adoring staff have worked out who their guest is. He stops mid-sentence and points up towards the speakers, delighted. The soft jazz that had been playing discreetly across the restaurant’s dark, hardwood interior has suddenly been replaced with the theme music from some of Kojima’s hit games. Harry Gregson-Williams’ music is sublime in its context but ‘Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots’ is not, Kojima acknowledges, terribly restauranty. He pauses, adjusting a pair of large, blue-framed glasses of his own design, and returns to the way in which games have not only influenced films, but have also changed the way in which people watch them. “There are stories being told [in cinema] that my generation may find surprising but which the gamer generation doesn’t find weird at all,” he says.
~ Hideo Kojima