MCN Columnists
Leonard Klady

By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

The Weekend Report: September 25, 2011

Show Me the Moneyball

The Lion King continued to roar with an estimated $22.1 million gross that placed it at the top of weekend viewing charts. Four debuting films ranked right behind. The critically acclaimed baseball opus Moneyball bowed to $20.4 million and the family targeted Dolphin Tale opened with $19.9 million. Movie goers were less enthusiastic for premiering action fare with Abduction garnering $11 million and Killer Elite trailing on a $9.4 million box office.

Alternative circuits provided what appears to be a record bow for Telugu-language Dookudu of $933,000 at 42 venues. There were also a pair of new Hindi imports _ the politically controversial Mausam grossed $455,000 from 88 playdates while Yaara o Dildaara had an OK $64,800 from 18 exposures. In Quebec Café de Flore brewed up $183,000.

Limited and exclusives newcomers provided few highlights with encouraging results of $43,100 from four engagements for the inspirational based on fact Machine Gun Preacher and a $22,600 tally for the gay-themed Weekend on a solo flight. Pearl Jam Twenty had a tuneful $64,500 following a single day blitz last week that grossed $280,000.

Overall weekend revenues generated slightly more than $120 million that provided an 18% boost from the immediate prior session. It was also 22% improved from 2010 when newcomers Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps and Legend of the Guardians led with respective bows of $19 million and $16.1 million.

Leading up to the weekend pundits wondered whether The Lion King could hold its grip on the box office. Mid-week business had been ferocious and the only surprise was that more playdates weren’t added for its sophomore round; especially as it becomes available on disc next weekend.

The most potent competition appeared to be Moneyball that had top end estimates of $20 million. Filmmakers have tried several times to mount the saga of baseball’s Oakland As in the early part of the new millennium. Buttressed by critical hosannas and a campaign that downplayed its sporting background the film drew almost equally between the sexes but skewed older with exits indicating 64% attending were 35 years and older. Early signs suggest its commercial arc could be similar to last year’s Social Network domestically but international will be a greater challenge that will swing on Brad Pitt’s appeal vs. a resistance to a largely unfamiliar sport; Japan and Cuba notwithstanding.

Dolphin Tale conversely skewed 66% female with 49% of the crowd was 18 years and younger. Its 3D component generated roughly 50% of its opening box office and its opening strength was zapped by the unexpected Lion King stamina. Still it debuted better than expected and unless Simba once again defies industry wisdom and continues to perform following its DVD availability, the film should have a strong second weekend hold.

Post-Twilight, Abduction at least confirmed Taylor Lautner’s base with exit demos reflecting a 69% female audience and 56% of the crowd younger than 25 years of age. Exits weren’t available for Killer Elite but it would be a total surprise if it weren’t male dominant. Regardless the full throttle promotion for new distributor Open Road of its star action vehicle is already a commercial disappointment.

Also on the down side is the close to 50% drop for the critical favorite Drive.

Domestic box office for 2011 appears to be on the upswing but remains roughly 4% behind last year at this point as a result of the movie going malaise during this year’s first six months.

Weekend (estimates) September 23 – 25, 2011
Title Distributor Gross (avg) % chng Thtrs Cume
The Lion King 3D BV 22.1 (9,480) -27% 2330 61.6
Moneyball Sony 20.4 (6,810) NEW 2993 20.4
Dolphin Tale WB 19.9 (5,680) NEW 3507 19.9
Abduction Lions Gate 11.0 (3,530) NEW 3118 11
Killer Elite Open Road 9.4 (3,160) NEW 2986 9.4
Contagion WB 8.5 (2,720) -41% 3136 57.1
Drive FilmDistrict 5.7 (1,980) -49% 2904 21.4
The Help BV 4.4 (1,640) -32% 2695 154.5
Straw Dogs Sony 2.1 (860) -60% 2408 8.9
I Don’t Know How She Does It Weinstein Co, 2.0 (810) -54% 2490 8
The Debt Focus 1.2 (1,150) -58% 1067 28.9
Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox 1.2 (980) -57% 1178 173.6
Warrior Lions Gate 1.1 (790) -61% 1411 12.2
Kevin Hart: Laugh at My Pain Code Black 1.1 (3,760) -9% 287 5.1
Colombiana Sony .94 (1,110) -60% 847 35.1
Dookudu Ficus .93 (22,210) NEW 42 0.93
Crazy, Stupid, Love WB .77 (1,140) -51% 675 82.1
Spy Kids: All the Time in the World Weinstein Co, .69 (570) -57% 1207 37
The Smurfs Sony .55 (820) -56% 669 138.4
Mausam Eros .45 (5,170) NEW 88 0.45
Shark Night Relativity .44 (660) -76% 637 18.2
Harry Potter & the Deadly Hollows, Part 2 WB .37 (1,160) -47% 320 378.8
Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark Film District .34 (800) -70% 424 23.5
Captain America: The First Avenger Par .30 (900) -47% 334 174.8
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $114.00
% Change (Last Year) 22%
% Change (Last Week) 18%
Also debuting/expanding
The Guard Sony Classics .26 (1,570) -23% 167 4.2
Café de Flore Alliance .18 (4,940) 37 0.18
Sarah’s Key Weinstein/A-Z .14 (880) -54% 155 6.9
Higher Ground Sony Classics 72,200 (1,130) -35% 64 .58
Pearl Jam Twenty Abramorama 65,400 (6,540) 10 0.35
Yaara o Dildaara Big Pictures 64,800 (4,050) 16 0.06
Thunder Soul Roadside Attr 52,500 (1,500) 35 0.05
Machine Gun Preacher Relativity 43,100 (10,770) 4 0.04
Puncture Millennium 34,800 (8,700) 4 0.03
Weekend IFC 22,600 (22,600) 1 0.02
Limelight Magnolia 10,100 (10,100) 1 0.01
Marrying the Mafia 4 CJ Ent 8,900 (8,900) 1 0.01
The Man Nobody Knew First Run 7,450 (7,450) 1 0.01
Omar m’a tuer Mongrol 4,900 (820) 1 0.01
A Bird of the Air Paladin 4,100 (4,100) 1 0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 – September 22, 2011)
Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Paramount (14) 1422 18.50%
Warner Bros. (23) 1408.8 18.30%
Buena Vista (14) 952.2 12.40%
Sony (22) 942.4 12.30%
Universal (14) 915.9 11.90%
20th Century Fox (13) 764.4 10.00%
Weinstein Co. (12) 274.5 3.60%
Lions Gate (13) 153.7 2.00%
Relativity (6) 143.2 1.90%
Focus (7) 120 1.60%
Fox Searchlight (9) 107.4 1.40%
Film District (3) 92.8 1.20%
Sony Classics (13) 77.6 1.00%
Summit (6) 69.9 0.90%
CBS (3) 57.5 0.70%
Other * (256) 175.4 2.30%
7677.7 100.00%
* none greater than 0.35%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 – September 22, 2011) *
Title Distributor Gross
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows, Part 2 WB 378,436,868
Transformers: Dark of the Moon Par 351,501,539
The Hangover 2 WB 254,464,305
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides BV 241,029,902
Fast Five Uni 209,951,424
Cars 2 BV 189,679,088
Thor Par 181,066,624
Captain America: The First Avenger Par 174,490,933
Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox 172,438,523
Bridesmaids Uni 168,998,490
Kung Fu Panda 2 Par 165,151,698
The Help BV 150,044,102
X-Men: First Class Fox 146,396,804
Rio Fox 143,619,809
The Smurfs Sony 137,812,056
Super 8 Par 126,901,819
Rango Par 123,481,694
The King’s Speech * Weinstein Co. 121,123,415
Horrible Bosses WB 116,676,771
Green Lantern WB 116,568,361
* does not include 2010 box office

One Response to “The Weekend Report: September 25, 2011”

  1. Ligaya says:

    Besides Brad Pitt’s popular appeal/star power internationally to sell Moneyball, countries in which baseball is the main or a major sport – besides Japan and Cuba – are Venezuela, Mexico, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Guardians of the Galaxy 3.8 3462 -21% 262.1
As Above/So Below 3.2 2640 NEW 3.2
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2.7 3543 -41% 153.3
If I Stay 2.6 3003 -62% 23.1
The November Man 2.2 2776 NEW 3.9
Let's Be Cops 2 3010 -39% 51.1
When the Game Stands Tall 1.4 2673 -52% 12.1
The Giver 1.3 2805 -37% 27.6
The Hundred-Foot Journey 1.1 1918 -30% 35.9
The Expendables 3 0.85 2564 -55% 30.5
Also Debuting
Cantinflas 0.81 382
Ghostbusters - 30th Anniversary 0.49 784
Rabhasa 0.1 86
Double Di Trouble 38,300 33
Life of Crime 30,600 35
Kundo: Age of Rampant 28,900 26
Swearnet 28,300 88
Raja Natwarlal 22,100 74
Peruchazhi 14,100 13
The Congress 7,560 13
The Last of Robin Hood 7,100 2
Starred Up 2,900 2
Temporary Family 2,800 5
Through a Lens Darkly 2,750 1
Road to Ninja: Naruto the Movie 2,700 7
Last Weekend 1,350 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office