Gurus o Gold – Post-TIFF 2011


Rank Last Chart Best Picture BreznicanEllwoodHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonVan AirsdaleWloszczyna Votes Total
1 5 The Descendants
4 3 1 1 2 1 5 1 3 4 1 3 1 13 178
2 1 War Horse
1 1 2 4 3 4 3 4 2 1 7 1 5 13 170
3 3 The Artist
2 7 5 2 1 3 1 2 5 2 2 7 4 13 165
4 6 Midnight In Paris
5 6 3 7 6 10 4 5 10 10 4 5 6 13 127
5 13 Moneyball
11 6 3 13 2 13 3 1 8 6 9 2 12 115
6 11 The Help
12 15 11 5 8 5 8 8 7 6 3 6 3 13 111
7 7 J Edgar
13 13 10 8 4 6 7 11 6 5 9 4 8 13 104
8 4 Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
15 2 4 11 9 7 6 12 9 9 8 8 7 13 101
9 8 Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
3 4 9 10 12 8 9 10 8 7 10 10 9 13 99
10 2 The Ides of March
10 8 8 9 5 12 11 6 11 3 13 2 12 13 98
10 The Tree Of Life
9 9 12 6 7 15 9 12 11 5 12 10 12 75
9 The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
6 15 10 14 2 7 4 11 11 9 64
Young Adult
8 14 11 11 10 13 15 12 8 34
12 The Iron Lady
5 13 13 15 9 13 14 15 8 31
14 We Bought A Zoo
14 7 14 12 14 14 12 7 25
Like Crazy
7 12 2 13
15 Carnage
11 15 13 3 9
Shame
12 14 13 3 9
A Dangerous Method
14 13 14 3 7
Hugo
14 13 15` 3 6
One Vote Wonders
My Week With Marilyn
10 1 6
Tintin
11 1 5
Drive
14 1 2
Contagion
14 1 2
Jane Eyre
15 1 1
Warrior
15 1 1
Salmon Fishing In The Yemen
15 1 1
Anonymous
15 1 1

x

Rank Last Chart Best Actor BreznicanEllwoodHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonVanAirsdaleWloszczyna Votes Total
1 George Clooney
The Descendants
5 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 4 1 1 2 1 13 80
2 Jean Dujardin
The Artist
2 3 5 3 3 3 1 4 5 3 2 6 3 13 61
3 Brad Pitt
Moneyball
3 7 2 2 6 1 2 1 5 4 4 2 12 57
4 Gary Oldman
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
1 2 4 6 7 5 4 5 2 4 6 3 4 13 51
5 Leonardo DiCaprio
J. Edgar
6 6 3 5 2 4 2 3 3 2 5 7 12 48
Michael Fassbender
Shame
4 7 5 7 6 6 3 1 5 9 28
Ryan Gosling
The Ides of March
7 4 4 6 7 6 6 14
Matt Damon
We Bought A Zoo
6 6 6 3 6
Michael Shannon
Take Shelter
5 7 7 3 5
Woody Harrelson
Rampart
7 7 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Paul Giamatti
Win Win
4 1 4
Joseph Gordon-Levitt
50/50
5 1 3
Jeremy Irvine
War Horse
5 1 3
Brad Pitt
The Tree of Life
7 1 1
Ryan Gosling
Drive
7 1 1

x

Rank Last Chart Best Actress BreznicanEllwoodHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonVan AirsdaleWloszczyna Votes Total
1 Meryl Streep
The Iron Lady
4 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 3 1 3 1 1 13 81
2 Viola Davis
The Help
1 2 3 2 3 3 1 4 1 4 1 3 2 13 74
3 Glenn Close
Albert Nobbs
6 2 5 2 2 5 2 2 2 4 2 4 12 58
4 Michelle Williams
My Weekend with Marilyn
4 4 4 5 6 6 3 4 5 7 5 3 12 40
5 Charlize Theron
Young Adult
2 5 6 4 4 3 5 6 3 5 10 37
Rooney Mara
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
5 6 2 5 7 6 7 7 8 19
Elizabeth Olsen
Martha Marcy Mae Marlene
3 3 5 7 7 6 6 17
Tilda Swinton
We Have To Talk About Kevin
7 7 7 6 4 5 9
Felicity Jones
Like Crazy
3 7 6 3 8
Keira Knightley
A Dangerous Method
7 6 2 3
One Vote Wonders
Mia Wasikowska
Jane Eyre
2 1 6
Rachel Weisz
The Deep Blue Sea
5 1 3
Jodie Foster
Carnage
5 1 3
Michelle Yeoh
The Lady
6 1 2
Marion Cotillard
Midnight in Paris
6 1 2
Scarlett Johansson
We Bought A Zoo
7 1 1
Kirsten Dunst
Melancholia
7 1 1

12 Responses to “Gurus o Gold – Post-TIFF 2011”

  1. movielocke says:

    Love the new system with 15 and seven. out of curiosity Dave, was your decision on lowballing Moneyball cemented after the grosses came out or before? Do you see it as fading ala Contagion? Just not connecting with the academy? I think you’re dead on with Mara in 2, and I think anyone who doesn’t have Viola Davis at 1 is nuts.

    would have loved to see the directing, cinematography and editing categories as well.

    I’m sort of surprised that Midnight in Paris moved up a couple slots, I thought pundits’ enthusiasm in predicting it was fading as they get distracted by all the ‘newshiny’ coming out of the festivals.

    Right now, imo, there are only two locks, The Artist and The Help (yes I know the sexist press hates it when so called women’s movies are recognized as equal, but they need to man up and accept it is a fucking fabulous film). After that I’d say that you have four pretty sure things: The Descendents, War Horse, Dragon Tattoo, and Midnight in Paris. I’d put Moneyball right on the edge with those four, not quite there, but nearly there. ask me again in a few months when we know its multiplier and just how many incredibly charming screenings with Brad Pitt there have been.

    Myself, I’m waffling back and forth on what I would choose as a number one so far, Moneyball, The Help or Midnight in Paris. They’re all terrific, but only nines, imo, not seen a ten in 2011 yet, at least with fiction films (Hot Coffee and Cave of Forgotten Dreams remain the two best films of the year).

    I remain fascinated by the possibility that Scorsese or Spielberg is hiding a Babe-esque four quadrant bonanza of filmic delight that winds up taking the season by storm. It’d be a hell of a lot more fun if the surprise breakout films are from major directors and studios rather than the latest precious indy drama or comedy. I’d like nothing better than for movie-movies Hugo or TinTin to rip spots in the BP lineup away from the medicine-movies like crazy drive of life of shame and carnage. :-p

  2. Paul MD (Stella's Boy) says:

    If Tilda Swinton is not nominated for We Need to Talk About Kevin, there is no justice in the world.

  3. yancyskancy says:

    Has anyone seen EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, or are its chances based mostly on Stephen Daldry’s nomination record? If he directed JACK AND JILL, would it have made the cut?

  4. Mark says:

    How nice it would be to see my generation’s genius, Meryl Streep, win her 3rd Academy Award…

  5. Steven Kaye says:

    Of course Midnight in Paris – closing in on $55 million domestic – has moved up the ranks. What’s surprising and utterly disgraceful is that it’s not number one.

  6. Michael says:

    I have yet to see some of these entries, but Brad Pitt in Moneyball was fantastic. Sadly there ARE those who would low ball him because he’s Brad Pitt.

    Personally, I think Brad Pitt has become a better actor over the last 5 years or so. Interesting and creative film choices (Babel, Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Inglourious Basterds, The Tree of Life, Moneyball)as well as the fact that his famous good looks have dulled just enough with age, that it’s easier now to see the character and the acting rather than the actor himself. I’ve always thought he was a better actor than people gave him credit for, but he just seems so much better now.

    Moneyball was fantastic in general, but Brad’s performance was amazing. Throughout the movie I honestly was thinking “how can this performance not get an Oscar nomination, and possibly a win”

    I’ll have to really decide once I see some of these other films, but I doubt I’ll have too much of a change of heart.

    Oh, and personally I cannot wait to see Rooney Mara. Her performance so far in the trailers looks excellent. There may not be a more gutsy performance all year from any actor or actress.

  7. Tracy says:

    My guts tell me something is wrong with THE IRON LADY. I hear it’s not ready supposedly but It hasn’t gone to a single festival: No Telluride, Toronto, NY and London (rumour on the street is that it is not the surpise film). I am finding this release strategy a little odd to say the least. Yes it stars the divine Meryl Street but surely it could do with a little more exposure?

  8. Gustav says:

    The only reasons why War Horse and Tintin are not competing with each other for the #1 slot is because they haven’t seen yet. I predict a split with both winning Best Picture/Director.

  9. Stephen Holt says:

    Don’t underestimate the power of WOODY. AND his ability to pull nominations for this actors. “Midnight in Paris” could still be playing in theaters and making MORE money, but SPC pulled it out so that it can floor SAG, AMPAS and the guilds with screeners come holiday time. When most people watch the movies. At home. On their DVD players.

  10. movielocke says:

    DP, can you clear up this discrepancy?

    There is no rule that states that Five Percent of first place votes is a cut off for eligibility. Rather, the rule states a film requires five percent of the total vote to be eligible for the BP nomination.

    No where in the official rules does it mention first place votes. Additionally, the Rules for nominations suggest there is no special tabulation of Best Picture nominees, all nominees are done by preferential ballot, as they have always been tabulated.

    BP Rule: http://www.oscars.org/awards/academyawards/rules/rule17.html
    “2. The pictures receiving the highest number of votes shall become the nominations for final voting for the Best Picture award. There may not be more than ten nor fewer than five nominations; however, no picture shall be nominated that receives less than five percent of the total votes cast.”

    Nomination rules:
    http://www.oscars.org/awards/academyawards/rules/rule05.html
    “5. In the nominations voting, the marking and tabulation of all ballots shall be according to the preferential or weighted average system. Votes for achievements in motion pictures not on the Reminder List will not be counted in the nominations balloting. Tabulation of final ballots shall be according to the plurality system. No “write-in” votes shall be counted on the final ballot.

    6. Not more than five nominations shall be made for each award, except for the Best Picture award, which shall have not more than ten nor fewer than five nominations.”

    Original Press Release announcing rule change:
    http://www.oscars.org/press/pressreleases/2011/20110614a.html
    “After much analysis by Academy officials, it was determined that 5 percent of first place votes should be the minimum in order to receive a nomination, resulting in a slate of anywhere from 5 to 10 movies.”

    If the official rules don’t consider first place to be a qualifier then it is not a qualifier, despite what a press release says, can someone please contact the academy and clear up what’s going on with the rule change?

  11. MichaelH says:

    I saw some long scenes of ‘Albert Hobbs’ and I love love love Glenn Close, but I’m just not feeling it. Maybe back in 1979, but not today.

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