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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Posted Friday, August 5th, 2011 - 9 Comments »

20 Weeks To Oscar: Best Picture Chart

9 Comments »

9 Responses to “20 Weeks To Oscar: Best Picture Chart”

  1. anghus says:
    August 5, 2011 at 7:51 pm

    i love Director Clooney. Can’t wait for Ides of March.

    I would put cash money on the table right now that The Help and TinTin don’t get anywhere near best picture category.

    I realize this early in anything’s possible, but i don’t see it happening.

  2. Proman says:
    August 5, 2011 at 8:44 pm

    And I put the money on just the opposite especially in regard to Tintin (though the Help is very good buzz) which I think will be Mesmerizing.

    There is nothing funnies than people literally betting against the most succesful and consistent force in movie history. When will they learn?

    I think that Tintin will be the movie event of the year.

  3. cadavra says:
    August 6, 2011 at 10:29 am

    Um, Spielberg hasn’t been much of an Oscar player in over a decade (one BP and BD nom each since 1998, both for MUNICH). He has a better chance with WAR HORSE than TIN TIN.

    I think THE HELP could surprise a lot of people.

  4. Jason says:
    August 6, 2011 at 1:08 pm

    How is tintin the movie event of the year? Its not like the movie offers something we’ve never seen before (ala Avatar). I don’t get all the hype on this. If any animated movie sniffed BP, wouldn’t it be Rango?

  5. Aren Bergstrom says:
    August 6, 2011 at 1:23 pm

    Where’s Harry Potter? It’s the best reviewed movie of the year and the end of a cinematic franchise. It has a chance.

  6. chris says:
    August 6, 2011 at 9:01 pm

    ‘The Help” isn’t bad but it isn’t even in contention to be in contention.

  7. Danny says:
    August 7, 2011 at 8:37 am

    To include TinTin as a possible contender but not Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 doesn’t make logical sense. Both are commercial “kids” movies (although HP has a massive adult fan base TinTin has yet to acquire in the States). TinTin has Spielberg directing, but that benefit is handicapped by the fact that Spielberg has the more obvious Oscar contender “War Horse” already opening at the same time. TinTin has yet to prove itself commercially and critically – and has a harder road ahead itself in the US market, where the source material is barely known, unlike the well known and much loved HP.

    Tintin’s best chances are with a BP animation nom and likely win, if it is considered eligible (the whole motion capture controversy may get in the way).

    David, you can’t have it both ways. If TinTin is a viable candidate (should it make a billion, as you say) than HPDH2 has to be too (already at one billion, it will overtake LOTR:ROTK #3 worldwide box office record in a few weeks – then throw in the universal critical raves and ten year franchise success story). Either both are on your list or maybe only HPDH2. But TinTin without HPDH2 strains credulity.

  8. Stephen Holt says:
    August 7, 2011 at 12:11 pm

    Always refreshing and bracing to see you line all the ponies up at the Gate, David. See you in Toronto!

  9. Danny says:
    August 7, 2011 at 2:54 pm

    correction: DHPH2 will not overtake LOTR:ROTK’s #3 all-time box office spot in a few weeks. It has done so already.

    (And by tomorrow it will also overtake Transformers 3 as the biggest movie in US box office this year.)

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“I’m in Locarno, my movie is premiering for 1,000 people, which is nuts. A huge-ass screening, second day of the festival, 7:30pm in the sidebar competition. It’s comparable to Un Certain Regard or Director’s Fortnight. Every movie I saw in that section was fun, brilliant movies from around the world. The main competition was like Aza Jacobs and Mia Hansen-Løve, people who have been around. And I was like, “This is crazy. What am I doing inside the bloodstream of this establishment? I’m 27. I don’t belong here.” Every person I talked to there couldn’t believe what the movie cost, and then couldn’t believe when I told them what other American movies cost. We were the cheapest movie there by 65%. The next cheapest movie cost I think three times as much as we did. And they were just like, “You can’t make movies for what you’re telling us your movie cost.” And I told them, “Well, I can, I’m here, I’m in the same section as you are, so you are wrong. People think I’m lying when I tell them my budget. And also everyone likes it. I’m having a great time and people are being very responsive. Maurice Pialat’s widow was like, “I heard your movie’s good, I want a copy of it.” I’m like, “Well this is f**kin’ crazy.” Pedro Costa saw it there and really liked it and I’m like, What am I doing? I had gone in two months from screening at BAM for a lot of friends to Pedro Costa? This is the exact sentence: “Pedro Costa saw your movie. He’s a huge Jerry Lewis fan. He wants to talk to you about your movie and also Jerry Lewis.” And I thought, “I’m out of my element. I cannot have that conversation because that’s ridiculous.” Because his retrospective was happening at Anthology when I worked at Kim’s, and his Criterion box set came out when I was working at Kim’s. He can’t want to talk to me. That’s not possible. That’s not allowed. There is no world where that makes any sense!”  Or like when you wrote me to say that David Gordon Green wrote you to say, “I’m watching The Color Wheel and then I’m going to see Tree of Life.” There is no world where this is allowed! Again, somebody whose DVDs I was putting on the shelf, as, like, a hero. And it’s just like, “Oh, I’ll watch this movie.” There’s just a very fuzzy area in the middle there and it happened very quickly and I don’t understand why.  I still have a voice-mail from Sean [Price Williams, cinematographer]. I wish he was here to talk about it, but the voice-mail is a long pause and he’s just like, “I don’t want to tell you this, because it’s gonna make you so insufferable. I hate having to tell you this, but Leos Carax watched your movie and he really loves it, and he wants to meet you when he comes to New York.” I can’t live in a world where Leos Carax knows who I am, watches my movie, likes it, and thinks, “I wanna meet that guy.”
~ It’s Alex Ross Perry’s World

“I don’t know. It’s been a lot harder than I thought it was going to be to make the films I really dream of making. I was in Italy a few years ago scouting for this very beautiful film I wanted to make with Richard Linklater. We worked really hard on the script for a couple of years and couldn’t get the money together. It was an expensive idea. It’s heartbreaking when that happens over and over again and then the movies that do get made are ones that have lots of women being beaten up or zombies being killed. It’s all fine, it’s all okay, but it’s hard. I remember when River Phoenix died, he was ahead of me on this curve. He kind of realized how hard it was to make serious movies. People like Sidney Lumet figured out how to walk that line, but it’s hard. And it requires patience. It’s a life’s work and I wonder if I’m up to the task.”
~ Weary, Wary Ethan Hawke

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