MCN Columnists
Leonard Klady

By Leonard Klady Klady@moviecitynews.com

The Weekend Report

Those Damned Apes Got A Peel

You can’t keep a good chimp down (or orangutan) and the re-booted Rise of the Planet of the Apes swung a wide arc with an estimated $54.2 million bow that handily set it atop weekend movie going. The frame’s other wide debut, the comic The Change-Up, chuckled into fourth slot with $13.5 million.

The session also saw a clutch of limited and exclusive bows that posted encouraging openings. The political thriller The Whistleblower grossed $57,400 from 7 posts while American indies Gun Hill Road and Bellflower had respective bows of $35,800 and $20,600 at three and two screens. The four and one-half hour fest fave The Mysteries of Lisbon was also upbeat with a $9,900 tally from two initial engagements.

Overall revenue climbed to about $166 million to register an 8% decline from the prior weekend and a 24% boost from 2010. One year back the launch of The Other Guys with $35.5 million led the field and the frame’s other frosh, Step Up 3D, ranked third with $15.8 million.

Both industry expectation and tracking for the umpteenth incarnation of the venerable Planet of the Apes franchise was ho-hum. The underlying attitude was uninformed with cynicism that ultimately gave way to enthusiastic reviews and considerably better than the $40 million or so predictions floating through the system.

The summer has been rife with low ball projections that ought to trouble industry tracking companies and cause a rethink on methodology. The past year has seen a shift in audience composition; most noticeably in the erosion of the 18 to 25 year old crowd that’s been the core of ticket buyers for decades. While Rise of the Planet of the Apes exit demos skewed slightly male with 54%, its audience was calculated 56% as 25 years and older … virtually every wide release of the summer has been dominated by “older” attendees.

While no one need pass around collection plates for theater owners, one can nonetheless appreciate their pain. In addition to hefty costs to convert to digital exhibition, they’ve been confronted with increasingly shrinking windows between theatrical and VOD, DVD and other ancillary revenue streams. Now they have to resolve the fact that a big chunk of their audience feels that the cost of a night at the movies is too expensive. The one-time avids haven’t lost the habit but they’re unquestionably less rabid.

The beneficiary of the shift ranges from circuits such as Landmark and screens devoted to alternative product to niche distributors and the studio’s specialized divisions. While the summer anomalies cannot claim the heights of My Big Fat Greek Wedding or The Blair Witch Project, there have been a handful of summer releases that embrace the likes of Midnight in Paris and Buck that have sustained and grossed far in excess of anyone’s dreams. The latest addition to that group is French import Sarah’s Key that’s already grossed $1.3 million after three weekends in very limited release.

Weekend (estimates) August 5 – 7, 2011
Title Distributor Gross (avg) % chng Thtrs Cume
Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox 54.2 (14,860) NEW 3648 54.2
The Smurfs Sony 20.6 (6,060) -42% 3395 75.8
Cowboys & Aliens Uni 15.7 (4,180) -57% 3754 67.3
The Change-Up Uni 13.5 (4,640) NEW 2913 13.5
Captain America: The First Avenger Par 12.9 (3,570) -49% 3620 143.1
Harry Potter & the Deadly Hollows, Part 2 WB 12.1 (3,820) -45% 3175 342.8
Crazy, Stupid, Love WB 11.8 (3,920) -38% 3020 41.9
Horrible Bosses WB 4.6 (2,250) -37% 2025 105.1
Friends with Benefits Sony 4.6 (1,910) -51% 2398 48.4
Transformers: Dark of the Moon Par 3.0 (1,630) -50% 1854 344.2
The Zookeeper Sony 2.1 (1,230) -51% 1724 73.6
Cars 2 BV 1.1 (1,230) -52% 926 184.7
Midnight in Paris Sony Classics 1.0 (2,430) -16% 399 48.5
Winnie the Pooh BVI .73 (1,020) -59% 716 24.4
Sarah’s Key Weinstein/A-Z .54 (7,500) 44% 72 1.3
Bridesmaids Uni .53 (1,420) -38% 374 166.5
Kung Fu Panda 2 Par .48 (1,660) -28% 290 162.7
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides BV .41 (1,500) 100% 274 239
Mr. Popper’s Penguins Fox .36 (1,110) -23% 327 65.4
X-Men: First Class Fox .35 (1,470) 21% 236 145.3
Bad Teacher Sony .33 (950) -61% 350 97.5
The Hangover Part II WB .28 (920) -24% 303 253.6
Starbuck Seville .26 (3,230) -27% 81 1.2
The Tree of Life Searchlight/eOne .24 (1,430) -27% 170 12.1
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $159.00
% Change (Last Year) 24%
% Change (Last Week) -8%
Also debuting/expanding
Devil’s Double Lions Gate .20 (5,950) 104% 33 0.34
The Guard Sony Classics .19 (9,910) 145% 19 0.3
Snow Flower and the Secret Fan Fox Searchlight .16 (1,450) -9% 116 1.01
Another Earth Fox Searchlight .16 (2,980) 50% 55 0.44
Beats, Rhynes & Life Sony Classics 77,600 (2,040) -34% 38 0.94
Attack the Block Sony 76,500 (9,560) -45% 8 0.29
The Whistleblower IDP 57,400 (8,200) 7 0.06
Gun Hill Road Motion Film 35,800 (11,930) 3 0.04
Bellflower Oscilloscope 20,600 (10,300) 2 0.02
Magic Trip Magnolia 13,600 (3,400) 4 0.01
The Mysteries of Lisbon Music Box 9,900 (4,950) 2 0.01
The Perfect Age of Rock ‘n’ Roll Red Hawk 9,100 (3,030) 3 0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 – Aug. 4, 2011)
Distributor (releases) Gross Market Share
Paramount (14) 1362.3 21.10%
Warner Bros. (21) 1196.1 18.60%
Universal (13) 826.9 12.80%
Sony (18) 756.4 11.70%
Buena Vista (11) 732.9 11.40%
Fox (11) 574.5 8.90%
Weinstein Co. (8) 185.1 2.90%
Relativity (5) 125.4 1.90%
Lions Gate (10) 118.8 1.80%
Fox Searchlight (9) 104.9 1.60%
Focus (5) 77.8 1.20%
Summit (6) 69.7 1.10%
Sony Classics (12) 66.3 1.00%
CBS (3) 57.5 0.90%
Film District (1) 53.9 0.80%
Other * (212) 144 2.30%
6452.5 100%

One Response to “The Weekend Report”

  1. Cole Moore Odell says:

    It’s Deathly Hallows, not Deadly Hollows, as you have everywhere.

Leave a Reply

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Lucy 17 3173 NEW 17
Hercules 11 3595 NEW 11
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 4.7 3668 -55% 160.4
The Purge: Anarchy 3.4 2856 -65% 44.8
Planes: Fire & Rescue 2.8 3839 -57% 28.6
Sex Tape 1.9 3062 -68% 22.8
And So It Goes 1.3 1762 NEW 1.3
Transformers: Age of Extinction 1.3 2476 -54% 233
Tammy 1.1 2562 -54% 75.8
22 Jump Street 0.8 1613 -46% 183.9
Also Debuting
A Most Wanted Man 0.71 361
The Fluffy Movie 0.51 432
Kick 0.37 179
Magic in the Moonlight 0.12 17
She's Dating the Gangster 70,000 46
Alludu Seenu 29,100 86
The Divine Move 13,000 11
Happy Christmas 4,150 4
A Master Builder 3,100 2
Thirumanam Ennum Nikkah 2,800 13
Eyjafjallajokull 1,800 4
Come Back to Me 1,500 8
A Letter to Momo 1,100 1
Very Good Girls 1,100 9
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
It was supposed to be a horse race (notwithstanding Belmont) but at the finish line the singular teen romance The Fault in Our Stars left the competition in the dust with an estimated $48.1 million debut. Conversely, the frame’s other major release Edge of Tomorrow proved disappointing in a distant second at $28.9 million.
Exclusive newcomers were strong, including a solo Manhattan campaign of $9,400 for Citizen Koch. Much-ballyhooed abortion-themed rom-com Obvious Child proved fertile with $84,100 at four dispensaries.
In the niches, Indian import Holiday partied fair at $373,000 while Pinoy romantic comedy Maybe This Time grossed an impressive return of $552,000 on a trifling 51 screens.
Revenues for the session exceeded $160 million and ebbed 3% from last weekend’s tally. It was 8% improved from 2013 when the debut of The Purge posted $34 million and holdovers of Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me duked it out for place position with respective box office of $19.6 million and $19 million.
Industry tracking pitted The Fault in Our Stars against Edge of Tomorrow with the former demonstrating a slight edge as it picked up momentum toward opening day. The adaptation of John Green’s YA novel of teens who strike sparks in a cancer support group had a prognosis of $35 million.
The tide truly turned when Fault generated $8.2 million and Edge took in $1.8 million from Thursday previews. Crystal ball-gazers upped the ante to $55 million but the picture took another surprise turn with an unexpected 31% drop from Friday to Saturday business. Strong WOM in exit polling bodes well to broaden the opening weekend crowd, a predictaly 82% of women and was 79% aged 25-years and younger.
Edge of Tomorrow appeared to suffer from the amusement park factor with the movie crowd opting to skip this particular fun ride. Tracking had pegged the pic to open at between $32 million and $34 million. Reviews were upbeat for the futuristic mayhem with a Groundhog Day twist that opened a week earlier in 27 international territories to $18.7 million.
Exit demos also indicated that the sci-fier wasn’t particularly stepping on Fault’s toes with a 61% male tilt and 73% of the audience aged 25-years and older. A studio spokesman expressed confidence for a strong second weekend hold but history and upcoming competition definitely have the picture bucking considerable odds. International prospects are already ahead of Edge of Darkness’s likely final domestic tally with a second weekend estimated at $82 million that included a $25 million bow in China, $16.6 million in South Korea and Russia with $8.6 million.
Open Road's Chef expanded effectively again, prepping $10 million domestically.
Weekend (estimates) June 6 - 8, 2014
Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change *
Theaters
Cume
The Fault in Our Stars
Fox
48.1 (15,160)
NEW
3173
48.1
Maleficent
BV
33.6 (8,520)
-52%
3948
127.5
Edge of Tomorrow
WB
28.9 (8,280)
NEW
3490
28.9
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
14.9 (4,090)
-54%
3639
189
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Uni
7.2 (2,270)
-57%
3160
30.1
Godzilla
WB
6.0 (1.920)
-50%
3110
185.1
Neighbors
Uni
5.2 (1,940)
-36%
2674
137.8
Blended
WB
4.0 (1,370)
-51%
2928
36.5
Chef
Open Road
2.5 (1,940)
32%
1298
10.3
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
1.9 (1,290)
-46%
1481
196.3
Million Dollar Arm
BV
1.8 (1,120)
-49%
1643
31.4
Belle
Searchlight
.75 (1,580)
-40%
476
7.6
Rio 2
Fox
.72 (1,030)
-35%
702
125.6
Maybe This Time
ABS
.55 (10,820)
NEW
51
0.55
The Other Woman
Fox
.48 (980)
-65%
489
83.2
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
.43 (1,360)
-31%
317
255.9
Holiday
Big Pictures
.37 (2,590)
NEW
144
0.37
Heaven is for Real
Sony
.37 (830)
-54%
446
88.8
Words and Pictures
Roadside Attractions
.29 (2,940)
269%
98
0.54
Grand Seduction
eOne
.28 (3,020)
-13%
97
0.82
The Lego Movie
WB
.26 (960)
-5%
274
255.8
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Fox Searchlight
.24 (1,280)
-37%
185
57.8
Ida
Music Box
.21 (2,540)
-10%
84
1.3
The Immigrant
Weinstein
.19 (1,320)
-39%
145
1.4
Divergent
Lionsgate
.19 (650)
-43%
298
149
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$156.60
% Change (Last Year)
8%
% Change (Last Week)
-3%
Also debuting/expanding
Fed Up
Weinstein Co.
83,600 (950)
-49%
88
1.2
Obvious Child
A24
84,100 (21,030)
4
0.08
Cold in July
IFC
68,900 (970)
-38%
71
0.25
Night Moves
Cinedgm
48,500 (1,520)
126%
32
30,800
Lunchbox
Sony Classics
50,700 (1,100)
-9%
46
4.1
Filmistaan
UTV
35,500 (1,480)
24
0.04
WolfCop
Echolands
34,900 (4,360)
8
0.03
Ping Pong Summer
Gravitas
26,400 (1,760)
15
0.03
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Weinstein Co.
23,200 (5,800)
4
0.02
Only Lovers Left Alive
Sony Classics
22,800 (760)
-53%
30
1.6
Tracks
Mongrel
13,800 (2,760)
5
0.01
Citizen Koch
Variance
9,400 (9,400)
1
0.01
Trust Me
Paladin
5,100 (565)
9
0.01
Burning Blue
Film Arcade
4,600 (380)
12
0.01
The Case Against 8
Submarine
4,300 (1,430)
3
0.01
Test
Variance
2,400 (800)
3
0.01
Domestic Market Share (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014)
Distributor
Box Office
Market Share
Warner Bros. (12)
728.5
16.80%
Buena Vista (11)
677.1
15.60%
20th Century Fox (11)
615.2
14.20%
Sony (11)
577.7
13.30%
Universal (10)
540.5
12.50%
Paramount (8)
322.2
7.40%
Lionsgate (13)
285.4
6.60%
Open Road (6)
95.1
2.20%
Fox Searchlight (5)
83.7
1.90%
Weinstein Co. (12)
76.5
1.80%
Relativity (5)
75.5
1.80%
FreeStyle (6)
68.9
1.60%
Focus (6)
39.2
0.90%
eOne/Seville (14)
35.3
0.80%
Other * (142)
107.9
2.60%
4328.7
100.00%
* none greater than 0.4%
Top Domestic Grossers (Jan. 1 - June 5, 2014) *
Title
Distributor
Box Office
The Lego Movie
WB
255,590,340
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
BV
255,447,104
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Sony
194,388,396
Godzilla
WB
179,093,006
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Fox
174,401,266
Divergent
Lionsgate
148,811,524
Frozen *
BV
137,534,677
Ride Along
Uni
134,965,071
Neighbors
Uni
132,600,495
Lone Survivor
Uni/eOne
125,026,404
Rio 2
Fox
124,909,565
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Fox
110,162,081
300: Rise of an Empire
WB
106,601,189
Noah
Par
100,950,258
Maleficent
BV
93,846,968
Non-Stop
Uni
91,869,306
Heaven is for Real
Sony
88,412,645
American Hustle *
Sony/eOne
82,661,672
The Other Woman
Fox
81,725,819
The Monuments Men
Sony
78,132,865
* does not include 2013 Box Office